机构：华创证券 研究员：单戈/许常捷 公司2025 年上半年实现营业收入533.68 亿元，同比-23.5%；归母净利润约2.1亿元，同比-89.7%。 评论： 投资建议：产品基因和拿地精准度是我们推荐公司的核心理由。公司自2022年以来保持较高的拿地精准 度，同时凭借"好房子"时代的产品力加持，实现较好的销售兑现，但公司短期内仍需要消化2021 年及 以前的老库存（结算毛利率较低）及减值压力，预计结算利润或暂时承压，我们调整25-27 年公司EPS 预测为0.40、0.61、0.95 元（25-27 年预测前值1.00、1.40、1.56 元），基于剩余收益模型测算公司估 值，约为311 亿元，给予2025 年目标价13.4 港元，对应2025 年30 倍PE，维持公司"推荐"评级。 风险提示：核心城市拿地竞争烈度较高影响利润率，管理层变动影响经营。 利润下滑主要来源于计提减值，而结算毛利率相对稳定。1）营收下滑主要受2025 年上下半年交付节奏 分布不均影响，2025 年上半年结转面积同比-22.7%，导致营收同比下降；但2025 年上半年公司结算毛 利率约13.41%，较2024 年同期13.09%有所 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Samsung Electronics, indicating that the company's performance has bottomed out and is expected to recover, driven by HBM4 technology [1][7]. Financial Performance - Samsung's Q2 2025 revenue was 74 trillion KRW, a 6.5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 75.5 trillion KRW [5]. - Operating profit for the same period was 4.6 trillion KRW, down 55.9% year-on-year and 31.2% quarter-on-quarter, also below market expectations of 6.1 trillion KRW [5]. - The company recorded a one-time impairment of approximately 15 trillion KRW due to unsold HBM products and foundry inventory issues [2]. Business Segments - The HBM4 product line presents significant growth potential, with Samsung expected to regain market share in high-performance memory as technology advances [3]. - The mobile business showed resilience, with a 5% decrease in shipment volume but a low single-digit year-on-year revenue growth and a quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of about 20% [3]. - The OLED segment benefited from an optimized foldable screen product mix, with expected operating profit of around 0.8 trillion KRW, while the home appliance and TV segments faced challenges due to increased competition from Chinese manufacturers [4]. Valuation and Outlook - Samsung's current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.0, with a projected P/B of 0.95 for 2025, nearing historical cycle highs [5]. - The company is expected to experience a performance turnaround in the second half of 2025, supported by the rollout of HBM4 products and structural improvements in the display business [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the banking sector and its investment dynamics in the context of both the U.S. and Chinese markets [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. mutual funds show a significant overweight in financial stocks compared to the S&P 500 index, with dividend-paying blue-chip funds holding over 20% in financial stocks, while growth-oriented funds hold less than 3% [4][5]. - Domestic investment behavior in China is influenced by declining real estate prices, leading investors to adopt a Sharpe ratio-based asset allocation strategy, which emphasizes stable long-term investments [2][6][7]. - The real estate market attracts investors due to its relatively stable returns and lower drawdown risks, while the appeal of non-standard products like trusts has diminished, prompting a search for new investment opportunities, particularly in ETFs and passive products [2][9]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio of bank stocks is currently below 1, indicating that future returns are less than the opportunity cost of holding these stocks. The increase in PB from 0.5 to 0.7 is attributed to a decrease in the opportunity cost of holding bank stocks as other sectors show reduced vigilance [2][12]. - The decline in return on equity (ROE) is slower than the decrease in opportunity costs, explaining the current ROE of 0.7 compared to a previous 0.5, suggesting that bank stocks are not overvalued [2][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - The increase in passive investment could impact the market capitalization of bank and non-bank financial stocks, although this trend may not directly mirror the U.S. situation due to differing market conditions and investor behaviors [10][11]. - The long-term trend of bank stocks' market share in A-shares remains consistent despite short-term fluctuations, as the overall market capitalization of financial stocks remains high [11]. - The relationship between asset quality and valuation pressures can be understood through the PB ratio, where a PB less than 1 indicates negative future cash flow expectations, but recent increases in PB suggest a reduction in opportunity costs [12][14]. - The static view of a 0.7 PB ratio does not indicate overvaluation, as the valuation is influenced by changes in required returns and opportunity costs, which have decreased [15][16]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current state of the banking sector, investment behaviors, and the implications for future investment strategies.