作者：柳白 今年以来，科技股多线爆发，推动创业板指领涨，区间最高涨幅达90%。不过，随着11月份以来科技主题轮动，曾经引领创业板指强势上涨的动能有所减 弱，创业板指在11月份最大回撤接近8%。近期，随着行情回暖，创业板指数开始回升。 为了应对投资择时的困难，还有部分投资者选择基金定投，这是一种通过纪律性投资平摊成本的有效策略，尤其适合缺乏专业择时能力的普通投资者。 然而，对于广大投资者而言，通过基金定投实现财富增值并非易事，操作不当，定投有时也会变成"定亏"。天弘基金介绍，传统的定投方式虽然能够平摊成 本，但还存在不看估值僵化定投、缺乏止盈策略、定投标的不合理等痛点。 为解决上述痛点，增强投资者的定投体验感，天弘基金联合深交所基金部今年正式推出了创业板策略定投。该策略以PB为核心参照指标，通过纪律性的投 资和对市场估值的关注，优化买入和卖出的时机，可有效摆脱传统定投机械买入的弊端。 天弘基金介绍，PB(市净率=市值/净资产）是衡量指数估值的一种方式，相比市盈率（PE），PB的波动更小，更稳定，且不会出现负值情况，尤其适合作为 一些高波动板块的观测指标。 以创业板指数为例，观察当前PB在过去6年中的相对位置，当 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2x, dropping from approximately 45% in early April to below 30% by late July, indicating a market trend towards eliminating low PB stocks [1][11][12] - Historical analysis shows that the complete elimination of 1-2x PB stocks occurred only during specific periods, such as 2014-2015, driven primarily by active leverage in the market [14][17][22] - The report identifies necessary but insufficient conditions for the systematic elimination of 1-2x PB stocks, including the continuous expansion of profit effects, influx of incremental funds, and alignment of fundamental expectations across various styles [2][26] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" phenomenon is characterized by a two-phase excess return path in heavy asset industries, transitioning from "ROA→, PB↑" to "ROA↑, PB→" [3][36] - The report references the previous supply-side structural reforms in 2016, where industries like coal and steel experienced significant price and volume reversals, driven by policy changes that addressed overcapacity [29][32] - Current core industries under the "anti-involution" theme include photovoltaic materials, cement, and basic chemicals, with a focus on selecting companies that maintain cash flow despite profit losses [39][43]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the banking sector and its investment dynamics in the context of both the U.S. and Chinese markets [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. mutual funds show a significant overweight in financial stocks compared to the S&P 500 index, with dividend-paying blue-chip funds holding over 20% in financial stocks, while growth-oriented funds hold less than 3% [4][5]. - Domestic investment behavior in China is influenced by declining real estate prices, leading investors to adopt a Sharpe ratio-based asset allocation strategy, which emphasizes stable long-term investments [2][6][7]. - The real estate market attracts investors due to its relatively stable returns and lower drawdown risks, while the appeal of non-standard products like trusts has diminished, prompting a search for new investment opportunities, particularly in ETFs and passive products [2][9]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio of bank stocks is currently below 1, indicating that future returns are less than the opportunity cost of holding these stocks. The increase in PB from 0.5 to 0.7 is attributed to a decrease in the opportunity cost of holding bank stocks as other sectors show reduced vigilance [2][12]. - The decline in return on equity (ROE) is slower than the decrease in opportunity costs, explaining the current ROE of 0.7 compared to a previous 0.5, suggesting that bank stocks are not overvalued [2][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - The increase in passive investment could impact the market capitalization of bank and non-bank financial stocks, although this trend may not directly mirror the U.S. situation due to differing market conditions and investor behaviors [10][11]. - The long-term trend of bank stocks' market share in A-shares remains consistent despite short-term fluctuations, as the overall market capitalization of financial stocks remains high [11]. - The relationship between asset quality and valuation pressures can be understood through the PB ratio, where a PB less than 1 indicates negative future cash flow expectations, but recent increases in PB suggest a reduction in opportunity costs [12][14]. - The static view of a 0.7 PB ratio does not indicate overvaluation, as the valuation is influenced by changes in required returns and opportunity costs, which have decreased [15][16]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current state of the banking sector, investment behaviors, and the implications for future investment strategies.