作者 | 张斌 编辑 | 王延春 化债的目的是防止地方政府过度举债，降低地方政府债务成本，让债务融资与投资项目更匹配。而不是 降低全国的债务规模；不是压缩地方政府综合财力，制约地方政府推动经济社会发展和改善民生 对待地方债务，既要看到地方政府举债存在诸多弊端和后遗症，又要看到地方政府举债对于推动中国城 市化进程、改善民生和产业升级的支撑，对于提高总需求水平和现实宏观经济稳定的积极作用。 即便是考虑了广义的地方政府的宽口径债务以后，中国政府也没有过度举债。在发展中化解隐债，要结 合新的发展环境提升对公共债务价值和公共债务风险的认识，前门要开的够大、才能关上后门。 全方位看待地方债务 事实1：地方政府预算外债务高速增长，地方政府事实上不能撒手不管的债务规模较大。截至2023年 末，全国地方政府隐性债务余额14.3万亿元。这是政府认可，未来需要由政府偿还的债务。除此以外， 还要考虑虽然目前不被认定为地方政府债务，但是地方政府很难撒手不管的债务。一是城投公司债务， 一旦城投债务违约，地方政府还是要面临巨大压力。即便这些债务在名义上并不算作隐性债务，地方政 府不得不想办法帮助平台企业。换句话说，虽然不是我的债，但相关责 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Research Report" highlights the achievements and ongoing challenges in government debt management and risk prevention for 2024, emphasizing the need for improvements in debt management, addressing hidden debts, and optimizing the scale and structure of government debt [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Debt Management - Government debt management requires strengthening, particularly in the management of ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a need for clearer sources of repayment and responsibilities [1] - There is a significant repayment pressure on some local government special bonds, and asset management of government debt funds needs enhancement [1] - The market-based constraint mechanism is not sufficiently robust [1] Group 2: Hidden Debt Issues - There are frequent occurrences of illegal new hidden debts and false debt reduction, with some localities mismanaging debt funds and creating new hidden debts beyond fiscal capacity [2] - Projects are being initiated outside budget constraints, posing risks of new hidden debts [2] Group 3: Debt Scale and Structure Optimization - The scale of government debt has grown rapidly due to increased counter-cyclical adjustments and active fiscal policies, with a notable rise in statutory debt [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total government debt balance is projected to be 92.6 trillion yuan, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, which is lower than the G20 average of 118.2% [2] - The structure of government debt, characterized by a high proportion of local debt and special bonds, requires optimization [2] Group 4: Recommendations - Strengthen coordination and enhance government debt management by improving the management of ultra-long-term special bonds and establishing a better asset management system [3] - Utilize debt replacement policies effectively and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts, ensuring accountability for hidden debt issues [3] - Optimize the scale and structure of government debt to align with high-quality development, considering economic growth and fiscal sustainability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has reported six new cases of local government hidden debt, with a total increase exceeding 1 trillion yuan, highlighting ongoing issues with local government financing practices and accountability [3][4][10]. Summary by Sections Hidden Debt Cases - The six reported cases involve significant hidden debt increases, particularly in Xiamen and Chengdu, with new debts of 683.96 billion yuan and 614.08 billion yuan respectively [4][5][6]. - The total hidden debt from these cases amounts to 1,410.14 billion yuan, with multiple local leaders held accountable [4][11]. Mechanisms of Hidden Debt - Hidden debt primarily arises from local governments using financing platforms, public-private partnerships (PPP), and other means to circumvent legal borrowing limits [4][10]. - The blurred lines between government and state-owned enterprise financing have been identified as a systemic issue contributing to hidden debt [4][10]. Accountability Measures - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes strict accountability measures, including disciplinary actions against responsible officials, to enforce compliance with national policies on hidden debt [11][12]. - Specific disciplinary actions have been taken against officials in Xiamen and Chengdu, including warnings and reprimands [11]. Regulatory Environment - Since 2017, the central government has intensified oversight to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while addressing existing ones [10]. - Experts suggest that local governments often prioritize rapid economic development over fiscal health, leading to continued violations despite regulatory frameworks [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has reported six typical cases of local government hidden debt, revealing a significant increase in the scale of hidden debt compared to previous disclosures, with a total of 1,410.14 billion yuan in new hidden debt across the cases [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Hidden Debt Cases - The six cases involve local governments in Shenyang, Xiamen, Dezhou, Wuhan, Chongqing, and Chengdu, with Xiamen and Chengdu having the highest new hidden debt amounts of 683.96 billion yuan and 614.08 billion yuan, respectively [3][4][5]. - Xiamen's hidden debt was primarily incurred through state-owned enterprises funding urban development projects, while Chengdu's debt arose from similar funding for urban renewal and public infrastructure projects [4][5]. Government Response and Accountability - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for strict accountability for local leaders involved in these cases, reflecting the central government's commitment to lifelong accountability and responsibility tracing regarding hidden debt issues [2][9]. - Several local leaders, including vice mayors from Xiamen and Chengdu, have faced disciplinary actions, including warnings and educational criticism [9]. Regulatory Environment - The central government has maintained a high-pressure regulatory stance to prevent the increase of hidden debt, indicating a zero-tolerance policy towards such financial practices [10]. - Experts suggest that the blurred lines between government and state-owned enterprise financing contribute to the emergence of hidden debt, highlighting systemic issues within local government financing [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has exposed six typical cases of hidden debt that have been completed with accountability, highlighting the issue of local governments using state-owned enterprises to incur significant hidden debts [1][2]. Group 1: Cases of Hidden Debt - Shenyang City, Liaoning Province, incurred hidden debt of 520 million yuan through state-owned enterprises for high-standard farmland improvement projects, leading to accountability for relevant officials [1]. - Xiamen City, Fujian Province, accumulated hidden debt of 68.396 billion yuan through state-owned enterprises for land development and housing projects, resulting in accountability for key city officials [1]. - Lingcheng District, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, added hidden debt of 14.5 million yuan through state-owned enterprises for farmland construction projects, with accountability for district leaders [1]. - Wuhan East Lake New Technology Development Zone, Hubei Province, incurred hidden debt of 10.385 billion yuan through state-owned enterprises for public infrastructure projects, leading to accountability for zone officials [1]. - Wulong District, Chongqing City, borrowed 16 million yuan from state-owned enterprises for infrastructure projects, resulting in accountability for district officials [1]. - Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, added hidden debt of 61.408 billion yuan through state-owned enterprises for urban renewal and public projects, with accountability for the deputy mayor [1]. Group 2: Government Response - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task, urging local governments to strengthen awareness of "red lines" and bottom-line thinking [2]. - A call for the establishment of a regular monitoring mechanism and strict enforcement of accountability for illegal borrowing by local governments has been made [2]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement strict oversight and accountability measures against new hidden debts and ineffective debt resolution actions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has exposed six typical cases of hidden debt, emphasizing the need for stricter management and accountability to prevent the increase of hidden debts in local governments [1][2] Group 1: Cases of Hidden Debt - Shenyang, Liaoning Province: New hidden debt of 520 million yuan incurred through state-owned enterprise financing for high-standard farmland renovation, leading to accountability for local officials [1] - Xiamen, Fujian Province: New hidden debt of 68.396 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for land development and housing projects, resulting in accountability for senior city officials [1] - Lingcheng District, Dezhou, Shandong Province: New hidden debt of 14.5 million yuan from state-owned enterprise financing for farmland construction, with local officials held accountable [1] - East Lake High-tech Development Zone, Wuhan, Hubei Province: New hidden debt of 10.385 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for public projects, leading to accountability for district leaders [1] - Wulong District, Chongqing: New hidden debt of 16 million yuan from borrowing by state-owned enterprises for infrastructure, with local officials facing accountability [1] - Chengdu, Sichuan Province: New hidden debt of 61.408 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for urban renewal and public projects, resulting in accountability for the deputy mayor [1] Group 2: Ministry of Finance's Actions - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task, urging local governments to strengthen monitoring and accountability mechanisms [2] - The Ministry plans to rigorously enforce financial supervision and hold accountable any instances of new hidden debt or inadequate debt resolution efforts [2]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has exposed six typical cases of hidden debt violations, highlighting ongoing issues with local government debt management [1][2] - The Ministry emphasizes the need for strict adherence to financial discipline to curb the increase of hidden debts and ensure accountability [2] Group 1: Cases of Hidden Debt - Liaoning Province's Shenyang City Liao Zhong District incurred hidden debt of 520 million yuan through state-owned enterprise financing for agricultural projects, leading to accountability for local officials [1] - Xiamen City in Fujian Province reported hidden debt of 68.396 billion yuan from state-owned enterprise funding for land development and housing projects, resulting in accountability for senior officials [1] - Dezhou City in Shandong Province's Lingcheng District added hidden debt of 14.5 million yuan through state-owned enterprise financing for agricultural construction, with local leaders held accountable [1] - Wuhan East Lake New Technology Development Zone in Hubei Province accumulated hidden debt of 10.385 billion yuan for public projects funded by state-owned enterprises, leading to accountability for key officials [1] - Wulong District in Chongqing borrowed 16 million yuan from state-owned enterprises for infrastructure, with local officials facing accountability [1] - Chengdu City in Sichuan Province incurred hidden debt of 61.408 billion yuan through state-owned enterprise funding for urban renewal and public projects, resulting in accountability for the deputy mayor [1] Group 2: Ministry of Finance's Response - The Ministry of Finance calls for local governments to prioritize the prevention and resolution of hidden debt risks as a critical political task [2] - A commitment to strengthen monitoring mechanisms and enforce accountability for violations of debt management is emphasized [2] - The Ministry plans to rigorously investigate and hold accountable any instances of new hidden debt or inadequate debt resolution efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the alarming growth of "hidden debt" in the form of dollar financing through foreign exchange swaps, which poses significant liquidity risks globally, especially for financial institutions outside the US [3][4][6]. Group 1: Hidden Debt Overview - Hidden debt refers to dollar financing obtained through financial derivatives known as foreign exchange swaps, which are not recorded on balance sheets and lack sufficient disclosure [3][4]. - The global balance of dollar hidden debt has surged from $41 trillion at the end of 2008 to $91 trillion by the end of 2023, and is projected to reach $98 trillion by the end of 2024 [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for Financial Institutions - Non-bank institutions, such as investment funds, are the largest users of foreign exchange swaps, which are less regulated and have inadequate information disclosure compared to banks [4][6]. - Japanese banks, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group, face challenges in stabilizing dollar financing, with their foreign currency deposits not fully covering foreign currency loans as of March 2025 [6]. Group 3: Potential Risks and Market Reactions - In times of crisis, financial institutions may be forced to pay higher costs to secure dollars or sell dollar assets, potentially worsening their financial conditions [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's willingness to supply dollars during emergencies raises concerns about future liquidity, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and potential economic downturns [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) has raised alarms regarding the excessive growth of "hidden debt" in the form of dollar financing through foreign exchange swaps, which is not reflected on balance sheets and lacks sufficient disclosure. The global balance of this hidden debt is projected to reach $98 trillion by the end of 2024, up from $41 trillion at the end of 2008, indicating a significant liquidity risk in the event of a financial shock [1][2][4]. Group 1: Hidden Debt Overview - Hidden debt primarily refers to dollars raised through financial derivatives known as "foreign exchange swaps," which involve exchanging domestic currency for dollars and require repayment in dollars after a specified period, typically less than one year [1][2]. - As of the end of 2023, nearly half of the total hidden debt, amounting to $41 trillion, is held by banks located outside the United States [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - The scale of hidden debt presents a significant regulatory gap, as non-bank institutions, such as investment funds, are major users of foreign exchange swaps and are less regulated than banks, leading to insufficient information disclosure [2][4]. - In the event of a financial shock, financial institutions may face higher costs to secure dollars or may be forced to sell dollar assets, potentially worsening their financial conditions [4]. Group 3: Japanese Banks' Situation - As of March 2025, Japan's three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group—have foreign currency deposits that do not fully cover their foreign currency loans, indicating a state of over-lending with loan-to-deposit ratios of 109%, 131%, and 127% respectively [4][5]. - These banks have raised significant amounts through corporate bonds and longer-term swaps, with Mitsubishi UFJ at $82 billion, Sumitomo Mitsui at $146 billion, and Mizuho at $93.7 billion, but still face risks of dollar shortages due to potential loan surges or deposit outflows [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Uncertainties - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of financial institutions and corporations in securing dollars, leading to a temporary dollar shortage that was alleviated by the Federal Reserve's actions through central banks [5]. - There is growing uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue to supply dollars in emergencies, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and potential economic downturns that could lead to liquidity tightening [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of "hidden debt" through foreign exchange swaps, which is not reflected on balance sheets and poses potential liquidity risks in the financial system, particularly as the global amount is projected to reach $98 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Hidden Debt Overview - Hidden debt primarily refers to the dollars raised through financial derivatives known as "foreign exchange swaps," which involve exchanging domestic currency for dollars and require repayment in dollars after a set period, typically less than one year [1][2]. - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) has raised alarms about the excessive expansion of hidden dollar debt, which has grown from $41 trillion at the end of 2008 to $91 trillion by the end of 2023, and is expected to reach $98 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Risks and Regulatory Concerns - The lack of transparency and insufficient regulation surrounding non-bank institutions, which are the largest users of foreign exchange swaps, presents a significant vulnerability for financial regulators [2][3]. - In the event of a financial shock, institutions may face increased costs to secure dollars or may need to liquidate dollar assets, potentially worsening their financial conditions [3]. Group 3: Specific Institutional Challenges - Japan's three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group—are facing challenges in stabilizing dollar funding, with their foreign currency deposits not fully covering foreign currency loans as of March 2025 [3]. - The funding gaps for these banks are significant, with Mitsubishi UFJ raising $82 billion, Sumitomo Mitsui $146 billion, and Mizuho $93.7 billion, indicating a risk of dollar shortages during financial stress [3]. Group 4: Global Economic Factors - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's willingness to supply dollars during a global financial crisis raises concerns, especially given the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could exacerbate economic conditions [4][5].