商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 苯乙烯：短期跟随原油反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 （《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2512 | 6,848 | 6,943 | -95 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2601 | 6,875 | 6,974 | -99 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2610 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB120EB01 | -27 | -31 | 4 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB01-EB10 | -512 | -400 | -112 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 73 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View - The short - term trend of styrene is a negative feedback with a neutral trend intensity. It will be in a volatile pattern. The valuation center of chemical products has moved down due to the rapid decline in crude oil prices. There is a demand for short - position profit - taking around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, there is an expectation of reduced production at some domestic major refineries due to overseas sanctions, and the inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have turned into de - stocking expectations. The downstream demand for styrene is still not optimistic [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For styrene futures contracts: the price of styrene2512 decreased by 95 to 6,848; styrene2601 decreased by 99 to 6,875; styrene2610 increased by 13 to 7,387. EB - BZ increased by 25 to 1,315. Non - integrated profit decreased by 12 to - 143, and integrated profit decreased by 67 to 689. EB120EB01 increased by 4 to - 27, EB01 - EB10 decreased by 112 to - 512. The N + 1 contract decreased by 20 to 7,460, and the N + 2 contract increased by 20 to 7,390 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, with a neutral outlook on its trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1] Spot News - Short - position profit - taking occurs. The valuation of chemical products has declined with the drop in crude oil prices. There is a profit - taking demand for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, some domestic major refineries may reduce production due to overseas sanctions, with an expected monthly output loss of 2 - 4 million tons of pure benzene. The inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have changed to de - stocking expectations. The market is mainly trading on cost contradictions. The downstream of styrene is in a negative feedback stage, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemical products, and the overall chemical valuation has stepped down. There is a need to stop losses for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene in the short term, with the market mainly in a volatile pattern. In October, under the impact of overseas sanctions, some major domestic refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly output loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene (depending on the actual load - reduction situation). The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have both turned into destocking expectations. The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to stopping profit for the previously compressed BZN positions, and the upper end may weaken faster. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S has clearly entered a negative feedback stage, with the downstream demand remaining unoptimistic. The short - term pattern is still volatile [3][109] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to around 30,000 - 50,000 tons. The new device production pressure was relatively large in September, with 56,000 tons realized. New capacities of 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical [3][109] - Imports: The September import volume is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports expected from November to December. The external market still has a large supply pressure [3][109] Demand - Caprolactam: CPL's operation rate is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][109] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][109] - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, there was a continuous decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and over - stocking, and the unfulfilled downstream production expansion expectations in the industrial chain. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but the market gradually shifted to a destocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The year - on - year growth rates of apparent demand for pure benzene in 2023 and 2024 were +17.2% and +12% respectively [11] Styrene Supply - In September, maintenance was concentrated, with 79,000 tons mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, new production is still being put into operation. It is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will both start production in November, with an average monthly increase in output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][109] Demand - The downstream 3S hard plastics are in a situation of high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. Currently, the downstream has entered a negative feedback stage and is generally weak [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene output contracted. The current situation is high inventory, neutral profit, and high production [81][83] Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fees are expected to expand profits in the short term, but the space is limited, mainly in a volatile pattern [3][109] Strategy - Unilateral: Stop profit for empty orders - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3][109]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly, with PE stronger than PP. The spot market of polyolefin is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The recent rebound in crude oil costs may lead to a short - term rebound in the valuation of chemical products. Future focus should be on the rhythm of autumn stocking after supply - demand digestion and possible changes on the supply side [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market LL - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7423, 7426, and 7365 respectively, with price increases of 43, 34, and 44, and price increase rates of 0.58%, 0.46%, and 0.60% respectively. The trading volumes were 261365, 8732, and 29530, and the open interests were 393878, 25214, and 56447, with changes of - 364, 2184, and - 13069 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 3, 61, and - 58 respectively [2] PP - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7074, 7089, and 7011 respectively, with price increases of 36, 30, and 18, and price increase rates of 0.51%, 0.42%, and 0.26% respectively. The trading volumes were 209222, 10807, and 24775, and the open interests were 468785, 35110, and 35262, with changes of 3197, 1860, and - 11348 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, 78, and - 63 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2427 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 573 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6900 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7750 respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7000, 6900 - 7000, and 6850 - 7100 respectively [2] Information - On Monday (August 25, 2025), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.80 per barrel, up $1.14 or 1.79% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.53 - $65.1. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.80 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.57 - $69.07 [2]