Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the 3700-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting it is a critical psychological barrier that influences market volatility and investor sentiment [4][6][11]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3731 points during the bull market from 2019 to 2021, and the current level of 3696.77 points is only 0.93% lower than that peak [4]. - Historical attempts to break through the 3700-point level have resulted in significant market fluctuations, indicating a strong resistance at this level [9]. - The market's behavior around the 3700-point mark reflects a cautious attitude among investors, who are wary of potential downturns [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that whether to increase or decrease positions at the 3700-point level depends on individual market outlooks; those believing it is the start of a new bull market should consider adding positions, while those seeing it as a peak should reduce exposure [5][8]. - Establishing an investment strategy that accommodates high volatility is crucial, with a recommended approach being a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income [11][15]. - A half-position strategy (50% equities and 50% fixed income) is proposed as a way to manage risk and opportunity effectively, allowing for adjustments based on market movements [14][15]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The article advocates for a dynamic rebalancing approach, suggesting that when equity exposure exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 55%), investors should reduce their positions to maintain balance [16][18]. - The author has implemented this strategy multiple times, currently holding a ratio of 53.60% equities to 46.40% fixed income, indicating a proactive approach to managing portfolio risk [20]. - The goal of dynamic rebalancing is not necessarily to enhance returns but to reduce volatility and maintain investor comfort [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a balanced investment strategy using a "half-position" approach, which aims to mitigate market risks while capturing opportunities, achieving a balance between risk and return [3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The proposed asset allocation consists of 50% fixed income, 45% equities, and 5% commodities, which is designed to optimize risk and return [3]. - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification through systematic investment [4]. Group 2: Fixed Income Allocation - The fixed income portion is divided into 50% allocation, with 40% in Chinese bonds and 10% in U.S. bonds [5]. - The rationale for favoring Chinese bonds over U.S. bonds includes lower price volatility and reduced currency risk, despite U.S. bonds offering higher yields [7][8]. - Specific funds within the fixed income category include: - 15% in Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bonds Index A - 15% in Bosera Credit Bond Pure Debt A - 10% in E Fund China Bond New Composite Index A - 5% each in Morgan Overseas Stable Allocation Mixed and Bank of China U.S. Dollar Bond [8]. Group 3: Equity Allocation - The equity allocation of 45% employs a "barbell strategy," with equal weight given to high-growth sectors (e.g., technology, new energy) and stable dividend-paying stocks [13]. - Domestic equity is favored over overseas equity based on valuation metrics, with the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology at 21.46, compared to 35.15 for the Nasdaq 100 [13]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The commodity allocation is set at 5%, primarily focused on gold, reflecting a strategy to hedge against global currency instability [18]. - The specific allocation within commodities includes 1% in Guotai Gold ETF, and 2% each in Guotai Commodity and Yinhua Anti-Inflation Theme, with gold comprising approximately 3% of the total commodity allocation [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Execution - The article suggests a high-frequency systematic investment approach, such as daily or weekly investments, to accumulate shares in overseas assets, especially during market downturns [20]. - Dynamic rebalancing is recommended when asset allocation deviates by 5% or more, which typically requires significant market movements to occur [21].