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投资的第一性原理是风险控制
雪球· 2025-08-03 05:33
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk control in investment, particularly through diversification, especially in the current high valuation environment of the market [4][10][14]. Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop on Thursday and a slight decline on Friday, indicating a turbulent market environment since around July 30, 2023 [2][8]. - The current market sentiment is concerning, with many investors overly optimistic despite high valuation levels, particularly in dividend indices [4][5]. Risk Control Strategies - The article reiterates three core risk control strategies: risk diversification, stop-loss measures, and volatility control [4]. - It highlights the necessity of diversification during bull markets, as those who concentrate their investments often face severe losses in bear markets [10][11]. Diversification Techniques - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced as a means to effectively manage risk through time, asset, and market diversification [12]. - **Time Diversification**: Advocates for dollar-cost averaging and adjusting investment based on market valuations [12]. - **Asset Diversification**: Encourages not to concentrate investments in a single asset class, suggesting a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities, while also considering alternative investments when traditional options are overvalued [12]. - **Market Diversification**: Recommends allocating assets across different markets to mitigate regional risks, such as including U.S. Treasuries in the portfolio [13]. Investment Philosophy - The ultimate goal of investment is to achieve stable cash flow and financial independence, which can be accomplished through a diversified and risk-managed approach [14][15]. - The article concludes by urging investors to reflect on their portfolio's diversification and to adopt a mindset that prioritizes risk management [14].
你的投资收益率该跟谁PK?我跑赢基准的秘密,根本不在沪深300里!
雪球· 2025-07-29 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, particularly through the "three-part method," which has yielded a cumulative return of 9.32% this year, outperforming the benchmark index of 7.85% and the CSI 300's return of 5.11% [3][5]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - The use of the CSI 300 as a performance benchmark is deemed unfair for diversified portfolios, as the CSI 300 primarily represents large-cap stocks in traditional sectors like banking and energy [7][12]. - A multi-asset strategy, which includes stocks, bonds, and commodities, has shown superior performance over the past seven years, with a cumulative return of nearly 100% and an annualized return exceeding 10%, compared to the CSI 300's cumulative return of only 3.96% [14][16]. - The article highlights that during periods of market volatility, a diversified approach tends to outperform the CSI 300, while in strong bull markets, single-asset strategies may yield higher returns [15][21]. Group 2: Investment Methodology - Investors are encouraged to understand the risk-return characteristics of different strategies through performance benchmarks, which can help them identify suitable investment methodologies [19][20]. - The article notes that the CSI 300 has an annualized return of approximately 8% over the last 20 years, but with a maximum drawdown exceeding 70%, indicating a high-risk profile [20]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy can mitigate risks associated with market downturns while still achieving reasonable returns, suggesting a more favorable risk-return ratio compared to concentrated investments in the CSI 300 [21]. Group 3: Three-Part Method for Asset Allocation - The "three-part method" allows investors to customize their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance and return expectations, with a typical allocation being 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities [22][24]. - The article provides a detailed example of a diversified portfolio, including specific fund allocations, which aims to balance risk and return effectively [30]. - The three-part method promotes long-term investment through diversification across different asset classes, markets, and timing, thereby enhancing the potential for returns while reducing overall risk [30].
半仓迎接牛市!这个策略进可攻,退可守
雪球· 2025-07-17 09:22
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a balanced investment strategy using a "half-position" approach, which aims to mitigate market risks while capturing opportunities, achieving a balance between risk and return [3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The proposed asset allocation consists of 50% fixed income, 45% equities, and 5% commodities, which is designed to optimize risk and return [3]. - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification through systematic investment [4]. Group 2: Fixed Income Allocation - The fixed income portion is divided into 50% allocation, with 40% in Chinese bonds and 10% in U.S. bonds [5]. - The rationale for favoring Chinese bonds over U.S. bonds includes lower price volatility and reduced currency risk, despite U.S. bonds offering higher yields [7][8]. - Specific funds within the fixed income category include: - 15% in Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bonds Index A - 15% in Bosera Credit Bond Pure Debt A - 10% in E Fund China Bond New Composite Index A - 5% each in Morgan Overseas Stable Allocation Mixed and Bank of China U.S. Dollar Bond [8]. Group 3: Equity Allocation - The equity allocation of 45% employs a "barbell strategy," with equal weight given to high-growth sectors (e.g., technology, new energy) and stable dividend-paying stocks [13]. - Domestic equity is favored over overseas equity based on valuation metrics, with the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology at 21.46, compared to 35.15 for the Nasdaq 100 [13]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The commodity allocation is set at 5%, primarily focused on gold, reflecting a strategy to hedge against global currency instability [18]. - The specific allocation within commodities includes 1% in Guotai Gold ETF, and 2% each in Guotai Commodity and Yinhua Anti-Inflation Theme, with gold comprising approximately 3% of the total commodity allocation [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Execution - The article suggests a high-frequency systematic investment approach, such as daily or weekly investments, to accumulate shares in overseas assets, especially during market downturns [20]. - Dynamic rebalancing is recommended when asset allocation deviates by 5% or more, which typically requires significant market movements to occur [21].
超五成货车司机对“法律援助”需求迫切 运费险保障呼声达59.91% 如何纾困?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-11 12:26
Core Insights - The expansion of occupational injury protection is addressing the needs of frontline workers, particularly truck drivers, who are essential to the logistics and transportation sector [1][4][6] Group 1: Occupational Injury Protection - Over 80% of truck drivers have participated in various social insurance programs, with a steady increase in participation rates [1] - The Ministry of Transport and other departments are promoting mutual insurance for truck drivers to provide support in case of accidents or serious illnesses [4][6] - The new employment form occupational injury protection pilot program has been expanded to include additional provinces and platforms, indicating a growing recognition of the need for such protections [6][7] Group 2: Social Security Needs - 59.91% of truck drivers believe that digital freight platforms should enhance freight insurance services, highlighting a significant gap in current offerings [1][5] - Legal aid services are the most urgently needed social security service, with over 50% of truck drivers expressing this need, reflecting ongoing disputes in the freight industry [4][5] - The report indicates that approximately 50% of truck drivers have encountered various freight disputes, with issues like unpaid freight being prevalent [5] Group 3: Industry Support and Infrastructure - More than 2,800 "Driver Homes" have been established across the country to provide essential services such as parking and rest areas for truck drivers, with over a quarter of drivers utilizing these facilities [5] - Experts suggest that there is a need to improve the freight insurance mechanism and establish a fair market pricing system to protect truck drivers' rights [5][6] - The logistics sector is crucial to the national economy, with over 38 million truck drivers responsible for more than 70% of the transportation of essential goods [1][4]