↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：终身黑白 来源：雪球 01 知道自己要什么 比别人怎么看更重要 勇敢的面对自己想要什么，勇敢的去面对他成功的概率，勇敢的去面对他失败的可能。你得和自己较劲，而不是和别人的看法较劲。 老登也不是不想快，只是老登选择的最高权重是确保安全，所以要专注那些股息稳定，估值不高，经营成熟有护城河的企业。这类企业往往在市场 活跃度高的时候表现都不那么好，市值高不容易被炒作，想象空间小，不容易有题材。 对于别人的看法，不必在意。无论多厉害的人，能力圈总有边界，能力边界外我们都会觉得不合理。人不可能完全相互理解，如果他理解你，他就 选择和你一路同行了，正因为他不理解你，所以才会有不同的选择，你也不必太过执念别人的看法。 投资从来都不是一场匀速运动，风格适配，整体无效，甚至有一定回撤的时候都会遇见。投资也是一件伴随一生的事情，股市缺的永远不会是机 会，而是你参与股市的能力。要确保自己是在找方法，而不是在找借口。 02 顺境垒高墙 今年下半年有很多老登小登互喷的内容，其实我觉得完全没必要。 如果你选了一条路 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over attempting to achieve quick wealth through market timing, advocating for a disciplined investment approach that focuses on high-probability strategies rather than low-probability ones [4][6]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author implemented a three-part asset allocation strategy (6:3:1 for stocks, bonds, and commodities) starting with an initial investment of 50,000 yuan and a weekly investment of 1,000 yuan, achieving a cumulative return of over 16% and an annualized return exceeding 22% with a maximum drawdown of approximately 8% [4][15]. - The article argues that there is no bad time to start asset allocation, as it can yield positive results regardless of market conditions, highlighting that even during periods of high uncertainty, good returns can be achieved [6][15]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Timing - The author notes that at the time of investment, there was significant uncertainty in both domestic and international markets, with high levels of caution among investors due to macroeconomic factors and asset valuations [6][9][10]. - Despite the challenging environment, the author emphasizes that asset allocation does not require precise market timing, as there are always undervalued assets available for investment [14][15]. Group 3: Dollar-Cost Averaging - The article discusses the benefits of dollar-cost averaging, stating that consistent investments can accumulate more shares during market downturns, allowing for better positioning when the market rebounds [19]. - The author experienced significant market volatility over the past year, but through disciplined investing, was able to capture gains without needing to predict market movements [16][18]. Group 4: Adding to Positions - The author identifies specific instances where adding to positions during market downturns proved beneficial, citing three occasions where additional investments were made during significant market declines [20][23]. - The strategy of adding to positions during dips is framed as a way to smooth out costs and enhance overall returns [24][25].

Core Points - The article discusses the passing of renowned physicist Yang Zhenning at the age of 103, highlighting his significant contributions to physics and his dedication to Chinese scientific research [1][5]. Group 1 - Yang Zhenning was the first Chinese Nobel laureate and is regarded as one of the greatest physicists of the 20th century, second only to Einstein [1][2]. - His most important contribution is the Yang-Mills theory, which is foundational in particle physics, with seven Nobel Prizes awarded based on this theory [3]. - In 2003, at the age of 81, Yang returned to China, sold his house in the U.S., and dedicated himself to advancing scientific research in China, including teaching at Tsinghua University and founding the Tsinghua University Institute for Advanced Study [4]. Group 2 - Yang's philosophy emphasized the importance of hard work and persistence over seeking shortcuts, advising students to focus on solid foundational skills [9][10]. - He believed that success comes from practical experience and hands-on efforts, encouraging individuals to engage actively in problem-solving rather than merely theorizing [13][20]. - Yang advocated for a method of addressing challenges by categorizing them into three parts: immediate solutions, waiting for the right moment, and accepting unchangeable facts [22][25]. Group 3 - He stressed the necessity of enduring solitude for significant academic achievements, equating deep work with a degree of loneliness that fosters focus and creativity [29][34]. - Yang's insights on perseverance highlight that true success often requires enduring repetitive tasks and maintaining inner motivation despite external recognition [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of an individual who transitioned from a novice to a more knowledgeable investor through learning and adopting a structured asset allocation strategy known as the "Three-Fund Method" [2][3][4]. Investment Journey - The individual began investing in 2019 by purchasing a healthcare index fund through a bank's financial advisor, which resulted in a significant loss of 45% on an initial investment of 120,000 yuan by July 2022 [5][6]. - This experience highlighted the risks associated with single-asset investments and prompted a search for a more balanced and stable investment approach [5]. Introduction to Three-Fund Method - The individual discovered the "Three-Fund Method" during a period of confusion, which emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [7]. - The method categorizes assets into three main classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities, allowing for effective risk management and stable returns [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The individual developed a personal asset allocation strategy, termed the "Stable 5 Portfolio," consisting of 80% bonds, 10% stocks, and 10% commodities, aimed at achieving over 5% annual returns while limiting drawdowns to within 2% [9][10]. - This allocation strategy focuses on stability, with bonds providing a steady income, stocks offering growth potential, and commodities serving as a hedge against inflation [9][10]. Family Support and Trust - As the individual's investment philosophy matured, the positive results began to influence family financial decisions, leading to increased trust and support from family members regarding investment strategies [11]. - The individual emphasizes the importance of patience and consistent investment practices, which have contributed to a growing investment portfolio exceeding one million yuan [11]. Key Insights - The individual stresses the importance of understanding one's own financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [14][15]. - The article concludes with a reminder that investing is a long-term endeavor, and the essence of investment lies in transferring current resources to future value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk control in investment, particularly through diversification, especially in the current high valuation environment of the market [4][10][14]. Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop on Thursday and a slight decline on Friday, indicating a turbulent market environment since around July 30, 2023 [2][8]. - The current market sentiment is concerning, with many investors overly optimistic despite high valuation levels, particularly in dividend indices [4][5]. Risk Control Strategies - The article reiterates three core risk control strategies: risk diversification, stop-loss measures, and volatility control [4]. - It highlights the necessity of diversification during bull markets, as those who concentrate their investments often face severe losses in bear markets [10][11]. Diversification Techniques - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced as a means to effectively manage risk through time, asset, and market diversification [12]. - **Time Diversification**: Advocates for dollar-cost averaging and adjusting investment based on market valuations [12]. - **Asset Diversification**: Encourages not to concentrate investments in a single asset class, suggesting a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities, while also considering alternative investments when traditional options are overvalued [12]. - **Market Diversification**: Recommends allocating assets across different markets to mitigate regional risks, such as including U.S. Treasuries in the portfolio [13]. Investment Philosophy - The ultimate goal of investment is to achieve stable cash flow and financial independence, which can be accomplished through a diversified and risk-managed approach [14][15]. - The article concludes by urging investors to reflect on their portfolio's diversification and to adopt a mindset that prioritizes risk management [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified asset allocation strategy, particularly through the "three-part method," which has yielded a cumulative return of 9.32% this year, outperforming the benchmark index of 7.85% and the CSI 300's return of 5.11% [3][5]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - The use of the CSI 300 as a performance benchmark is deemed unfair for diversified portfolios, as the CSI 300 primarily represents large-cap stocks in traditional sectors like banking and energy [7][12]. - A multi-asset strategy, which includes stocks, bonds, and commodities, has shown superior performance over the past seven years, with a cumulative return of nearly 100% and an annualized return exceeding 10%, compared to the CSI 300's cumulative return of only 3.96% [14][16]. - The article highlights that during periods of market volatility, a diversified approach tends to outperform the CSI 300, while in strong bull markets, single-asset strategies may yield higher returns [15][21]. Group 2: Investment Methodology - Investors are encouraged to understand the risk-return characteristics of different strategies through performance benchmarks, which can help them identify suitable investment methodologies [19][20]. - The article notes that the CSI 300 has an annualized return of approximately 8% over the last 20 years, but with a maximum drawdown exceeding 70%, indicating a high-risk profile [20]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy can mitigate risks associated with market downturns while still achieving reasonable returns, suggesting a more favorable risk-return ratio compared to concentrated investments in the CSI 300 [21]. Group 3: Three-Part Method for Asset Allocation - The "three-part method" allows investors to customize their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance and return expectations, with a typical allocation being 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% commodities [22][24]. - The article provides a detailed example of a diversified portfolio, including specific fund allocations, which aims to balance risk and return effectively [30]. - The three-part method promotes long-term investment through diversification across different asset classes, markets, and timing, thereby enhancing the potential for returns while reducing overall risk [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a balanced investment strategy using a "half-position" approach, which aims to mitigate market risks while capturing opportunities, achieving a balance between risk and return [3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The proposed asset allocation consists of 50% fixed income, 45% equities, and 5% commodities, which is designed to optimize risk and return [3]. - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification through systematic investment [4]. Group 2: Fixed Income Allocation - The fixed income portion is divided into 50% allocation, with 40% in Chinese bonds and 10% in U.S. bonds [5]. - The rationale for favoring Chinese bonds over U.S. bonds includes lower price volatility and reduced currency risk, despite U.S. bonds offering higher yields [7][8]. - Specific funds within the fixed income category include: - 15% in Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bonds Index A - 15% in Bosera Credit Bond Pure Debt A - 10% in E Fund China Bond New Composite Index A - 5% each in Morgan Overseas Stable Allocation Mixed and Bank of China U.S. Dollar Bond [8]. Group 3: Equity Allocation - The equity allocation of 45% employs a "barbell strategy," with equal weight given to high-growth sectors (e.g., technology, new energy) and stable dividend-paying stocks [13]. - Domestic equity is favored over overseas equity based on valuation metrics, with the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology at 21.46, compared to 35.15 for the Nasdaq 100 [13]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The commodity allocation is set at 5%, primarily focused on gold, reflecting a strategy to hedge against global currency instability [18]. - The specific allocation within commodities includes 1% in Guotai Gold ETF, and 2% each in Guotai Commodity and Yinhua Anti-Inflation Theme, with gold comprising approximately 3% of the total commodity allocation [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Execution - The article suggests a high-frequency systematic investment approach, such as daily or weekly investments, to accumulate shares in overseas assets, especially during market downturns [20]. - Dynamic rebalancing is recommended when asset allocation deviates by 5% or more, which typically requires significant market movements to occur [21].

Core Insights - The expansion of occupational injury protection is addressing the needs of frontline workers, particularly truck drivers, who are essential to the logistics and transportation sector [1][4][6] Group 1: Occupational Injury Protection - Over 80% of truck drivers have participated in various social insurance programs, with a steady increase in participation rates [1] - The Ministry of Transport and other departments are promoting mutual insurance for truck drivers to provide support in case of accidents or serious illnesses [4][6] - The new employment form occupational injury protection pilot program has been expanded to include additional provinces and platforms, indicating a growing recognition of the need for such protections [6][7] Group 2: Social Security Needs - 59.91% of truck drivers believe that digital freight platforms should enhance freight insurance services, highlighting a significant gap in current offerings [1][5] - Legal aid services are the most urgently needed social security service, with over 50% of truck drivers expressing this need, reflecting ongoing disputes in the freight industry [4][5] - The report indicates that approximately 50% of truck drivers have encountered various freight disputes, with issues like unpaid freight being prevalent [5] Group 3: Industry Support and Infrastructure - More than 2,800 "Driver Homes" have been established across the country to provide essential services such as parking and rest areas for truck drivers, with over a quarter of drivers utilizing these facilities [5] - Experts suggest that there is a need to improve the freight insurance mechanism and establish a fair market pricing system to protect truck drivers' rights [5][6] - The logistics sector is crucial to the national economy, with over 38 million truck drivers responsible for more than 70% of the transportation of essential goods [1][4]