Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.77% on December 24 [2] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market increased in value, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Technical Analysis - The A-share market has broken through an important trading range, indicating a shift from a typical box-shaped fluctuation pattern observed since November 20 [2][4] - The average stock price across the A-share market has also shown a breakout, recovering losses incurred since November 18 [4] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector has shown significant growth, with over 30 stocks closing at their daily limit or with gains of 10% or more [11] - Other strong sectors include power supply equipment and liquid cooling servers, with predictions indicating that the global liquid cooling market could reach $21.8 billion by 2027 [13] - The semiconductor industry is also performing well, with companies like SMIC implementing price increases of around 10% due to rising demand from mobile applications and AI [14] Investment Sentiment - Analysts from Dongguan Securities suggest that the current market conditions are favorable for optimistic positioning ahead of the spring market rally, driven by institutional reallocation and improved liquidity [8] - The focus for the short term will be on the selection of the new Federal Reserve chair and the implementation of domestic monetary and fiscal policies [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic, industrial, and policy news, offering a multi - faceted view of market trends and potential investment opportunities [3][7][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.13% at $4480.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.37% at $69.09 per ounce [4] - US oil and Brent crude oil futures both increased, with US oil up 2.53% at $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.45% at $61.52 per barrel [5] - London base metals showed mixed results, with some rising and some falling [5] - Most domestic futures contracts closed higher, with PVC, fuel oil, etc. rising, while ethylene glycol (EG) fell nearly 1% [5] Important News Macro News - Li Qiang emphasized planning major projects in the '15th Five - Year Plan' to boost future development and current economic stability [8] - The PBOC kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged for seven consecutive months [9] - Multiple futures exchanges will adjust fee policies from January 1, 2026 [9] - Fed Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point rate cut has weakened [10] - Trump will meet with national security officials, and Russia is evacuating diplomats' families from Venezuela [11] - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 5.2% [13] - LME plans to introduce option auto - expiration and e - option trading in 2026 [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were cut on December 22 [15] - Jiangsu's styrene port inventory increased [15] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory rose slightly [15] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased [16] Metal Futures - The SHFE adjusted trading rules for silver futures [18] - The first - quarter long - term price of a large Guinean mine decreased [18] - Global and Chinese primary aluminum production data were released [20] - The non - ferrous metal industry maintained growth [20] - Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China decreased [20] - The GZEX adjusted the delivery rules for lithium carbonate and polysilicon futures [21] - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs increased [21] Black - series Futures - Multiple departments launched inspections on illegal mining [23] - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased [25] - China's port arrival volume of iron ore decreased [25] - Coke purchase prices in Shandong and Hebei markets were cut [25] - A silicon - manganese alloy plant in Inner Mongolia plans to expand production [26] Agricultural Product Futures - US soybean export data showed growth [28] - Malaysia's palm oil market is expected to stabilize in 2026 [30] - Domestic soybean crushing volume increased [30] - Malaysian palm oil export and production data for December showed changes [31] - Sugar production data in Guangxi and India were reported [31] - Brazil's soybean production forecast was raised [33] - Brazil's soybean sowing rate and shipping data were updated [34] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose with increased trading volume, and the HSI also increased [36] - The exchanges announced holidays for 2026 [37] - Shenzhen's M&A market and Shanghai's refinancing market showed good performance [38] - Goldman Sachs analysts expect Chinese stocks to continue rising [38] - But Bin is optimistic about the A - share AI industry [39] Industry - China and relevant parties negotiated on the semiconductor supply chain [40] - China imposed anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products [40] - Guangzhou proposed plans for horse - racing and e - sports industries [42] - Many Sino - Japanese flights were cancelled [42] - Shenzhen expanded the housing voucher resettlement pilot [42] - Some land auctions in Guangzhou failed [42] - Domestic refined oil prices dropped for the third consecutive time [43] - A 70 - billion financial product of Jinyafu defaulted [43] - The market regulator reformed the CCC certification [43] Overseas - Ukraine and the US completed the initial draft of a 'peace plan' [45] - Trump will appoint a new Fed chair [45] - Fed Governor Milan warned of recession risks without rate cuts [45] - The Trump administration increased cash subsidies for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure [45] - The EU extended sanctions against Russia and introduced anti - circumvention measures [45] - India and New Zealand reached a free trade agreement [46] Commodity - The SHFE adjusted trading fees for silver futures to cool the market [50] - International precious metal futures rose due to policy expectations and geopolitical risks [50] - Crude oil futures prices rose due to supply concerns in Venezuela [51] - London base metals showed mixed trends [52] Bond - China's bond market weakened, and institutions adjusted their bond allocations [53] - Insurance companies accelerated bond issuance [53] - US bond yields rose [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [56] - Japan and South Korea warned against currency speculation [56] Upcoming Events - The RBA will release its December monetary policy meeting minutes [58] - The PBOC will have 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due [58] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference [58] - Multiple conferences and events will take place [58] - New stocks will be listed and申购 [58] - The Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy meeting minutes [58]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.8% during the morning session [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3,500 stocks rising [3]. Sector Performance - The Hainan Free Trade Zone concept stocks surged, with a rise of 9.59%, and 22 stocks hitting the daily limit [3]. - The semiconductor industry chain saw significant gains, with the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and intelligent driving sectors also performing strongly [10]. - Precious metals experienced a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices exceeding $4,380 per ounce, marking a historical high [6][14]. Notable Stocks - China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares both rose over 10%, attributed to a sales figure of 118 million yuan on the first day of duty-free sales in Sanya [4]. - Longan Automobile opened more than 3% higher following the issuance of the first L3-level autonomous driving license in Chongqing [10]. - Zhangzhou Development hit the daily limit, rising by 10.05%, following news of the Fujian Zhangzhou "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed at enhancing cross-strait integration [4]. Trading Highlights - The trading volume for palladium futures reached the daily limit, while silver futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract rising over 5% [6]. - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of over 2%, with sectors such as CPO, optical communication modules, and virtual robots leading the gains [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. Some sectors are affected by policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, while others are influenced by geopolitical and macro - economic factors. For example, the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - long term, while the LPG market is currently strong but may not be sustainable [10][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Indicators - **Fundamental Analysis**: Some commodities are judged as trend空头 (such as烧碱), some as震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and trend多头. For example,烧碱 is in a trend - bearish state, while中证1000指数期货 is in an oscillating and bullish - biased state [2]. - **Quantitative Analysis**: Some commodities are classified as偏空 (e.g.,沪锌), 震荡 (e.g.,沪金), and偏多 (e.g.,焦煤) based on technical indicators such as volume and price [4]. 2. Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and temporarily wait and see. A - share market shows differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% at 3875.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.01%. The trading volume is 1.56 trillion yuan. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is further heating up [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to have a wide - range oscillating trend. Pay attention to the curve steepening in the medium term. The capital is loose, and the bond market has been falling, with the long - end driving the short - end interest - rate curve to become steeper [9]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel and Ore**: In the short term, they will oscillate and consolidate, and in the medium - long term, maintain a bearish view when the price is high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the steel mills' profits are at a low level. The iron ore is relatively strong, while the raw materials such as coal and coke are weak [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: In the short term, they may oscillate and consolidate. Pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety supervision, and changes in downstream molten - iron output [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron is stronger than manganese silicon. It is recommended to hold the long - silicon - iron and short - manganese - silicon position. For silicon iron, hold the long position, and for manganese silicon, maintain a bearish view when the price is high [14]. 4. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see. The supply has recovered, but the upstream's willingness to start production has weakened after the cost increase. - **Glass**: In the short term, try to go long when the price is low, and leave the market flexibly when the sentiment changes. The market expects an increase in cold - repair of the supply side, and pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans [15]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [17]. - **Lead**: The social inventory has decreased to a 15 - month low. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions cautiously [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand is good [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, and it is possible to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see and operate cautiously [22]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not fully recovered. The high cost supports the price to oscillate and rebound [24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure. The domestic new - crop production is increasing, and the import cost is low. It is advisable to wait and see or short in the short term [25]. - **Eggs**: For the near - month contracts, adopt an oscillating strategy. The 01 contract is recommended to stop loss and wait and see. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a possible shortage in inventory but are under pressure at the current high valuation [26]. - **Apples**: The price will oscillate. The出库 volume has slightly decreased recently, and the spot price is stable [27]. - **Corn**: The short - term 01 contract will maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts are likely to be weak [29]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable [30]. - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. Hold short positions in the near - month contracts. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to the future pig price [31]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Although there is short - term support, it is in a long - term downward trend. The supply - demand relationship is expected to be oversupplied, and the short - term upward space is limited [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is flat. The short - term focus is on the geopolitical influence [34]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it will oscillate weakly. It is recommended that industrial customers hedge in time [35]. - **Rubber**: The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. Unilaterally, wait and see [36]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the sentiment fades, it will oscillate. Be cautious about chasing up or down, and wait and see unilaterally [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - month contracts will oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts may be slightly bullish if the inventory is removed smoothly [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, maintain a bearish and oscillating view, and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The supply - demand structure is generally stable, and the price is mainly determined by the cost. Pay attention to the interval opportunities of long TA and short PF and ethylene glycol reverse arbitrage [41]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short at high prices [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: Temporarily wait and see. When the delivery profit is obvious, long positions can take profit appropriately [44]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure [44]. - **Urea**: The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. Adopt an intraday oscillating strategy [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 4th, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.38%, IH by 0.44%, IC by 0.61%, and IM by 0.39%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 closed at 4546.57, up 0.34%. Among its futures, IF2512 closed at 4530.6, up 0.38% with a basis of - 15.97, and its trading volume was 63708 (down 4155) and position was 136475 (down 5723) [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 closed at 2974.34, up 0.38%. IH2512 closed at 2968.2, up 0.44% with a basis of - 6.14, and its trading volume was 27688 (up 123) and position was 53262 (down 2692) [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 closed at 7012.81, up 0.24%. IC2512 closed at 6983.2, up 0.61% with a basis of - 29.61, and its trading volume was 64721 (down 2618) and position was 123278 (down 10513) [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 closed at 7248.66, up 0.01%. IM2512 closed at 7213.4, up 0.39% with a basis of - 35.26, and its trading volume was 116454 (down 2178) and position was 181088 (down 11986) [1]. 3.2 Total Trading Volume and Position Changes - The total trading volume of IF decreased by 5184 lots, IH by 44 lots, IC by 2272 lots, and IM by 5429 lots. The total positions of IF decreased by 3942 lots, IH by 3020 lots, IC by 8576 lots, and IM by 13768 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF**: For IF2512, long - positions decreased by 5074 and short - positions decreased by 4412; for IF2603, long - positions increased by 581 and short - positions increased by 642 [5]. - **IH**: For IH2512, long - positions decreased by 2193 and short - positions decreased by 1830; for IH2603, long - positions decreased by 511 and short - positions decreased by 214 [5]. - **IC**: For IC2512, long - positions decreased by 7954 and short - positions decreased by 7808; for IC2601, long - positions increased by 737 and short - positions increased by 721 [5]. - **IM**: For IM2512, long - positions decreased by 8399 and short - positions decreased by 10183; for IM2601, long - positions increased by 959 and short - positions increased by 896 [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Driving Factors - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with French President Macron. The two leaders exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis and witnessed the signing of cooperation documents in multiple fields. There was also an inaccurate media report about the Japanese Prime Minister's stance on Taiwan, which was refuted by the Chinese Foreign Ministry [6]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on December 5th to offset the maturity amount. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4% and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The A - share market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan [7].