光大期货金融期货日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报 | | | 加权利率上行 | 4bp | 至 | 1.54%。近期债市遭遇了债基大量赎回带来的利空压制， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 | 月 | CPI | 同比转负、但 | | PPI 筑底回升，社融增幅如期回落，实体融资需求偏 | | | | | | | 弱，居民存款搬家现象持续。短期来看，基本面多空交织背景下，债市尚未 | | | | | | 出现明确拐点信号，仍以宽幅震荡看待。 | | 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天低开高走，创业板指午后涨超 2%，再创三年多以来新高。个股跌 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 多涨少，沪深京三市约 2800 股飘绿，今日成交 2.4 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 | | | | 0.37%，深成指涨 1.16%，创业板指涨 1.95%。8 月经济数据发布，消费、投 | | | | 资等需求端指标环比均有 ...

市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月外部压力边际增加，一是中国8月出口有所转弱，尤其是对美出口，但非美出口的韧 性也对后续出口提供支撑；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时 报》和路透社披露，特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频 提稳增长政策。9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表 示"不断释放内需潜力""推进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服 务消费的若干政策措施》，提出将在约50城开展消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点建设下来，还将出台住宿业高质 量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等一系列特色文件，形成政策组合拳。商务部决定自2025年9月13日起对原产于美国 的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok 问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。特朗普签署行政令，第四次延长对TikTok的禁 令执行宽限期，本次延迟三个月至12月16日。此外，中国8月新增社融2.5 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened slightly lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.04% [1] - The robotics sector continues to show strong performance, indicating ongoing interest and investment in this area [1] - Active performance was noted in the intelligent driving sector, lithography machine sector, and tourism sector, suggesting potential growth opportunities [1] - The GPU sector experienced a general pullback, indicating possible market corrections or shifts in investor sentiment [1]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on September 15, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.20% to 3862.96, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.12% to 13068.64, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.62% to 3099.47 [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector, automotive chip concept, and storage chip concept saw significant gains, while cultivated diamonds and copper industries weakened [1] - Energy metals, energy storage, and photovoltaic equipment sectors led the gains, with CATL and Sungrow Power achieving historical highs, with increases of 11.38% and 8.16% respectively [3] New Energy and Automotive Sector - The new energy concept stocks surged, with Tianqi Lithium hitting the daily limit, and smart driving concepts also active, with multiple stocks like Suoling Co., Shanzigao Technology, and others reaching their daily limits [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan aiming for 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, with a target of 15.5 million for new energy vehicles, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth [7] Pre-made Food Sector - The pre-made food sector showed strong activity, with stocks like Huifa Food and Delisi hitting the daily limit, driven by the upcoming national standards for food safety [8][9] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector experienced a rise, with companies like Zhongdali De and Wanxiang Qianchao hitting the daily limit, following comments from Elon Musk about advancements in Tesla's Optimus robot [10][11] Company-Specific News - Pop Mart's stock fell nearly 8% after a downgrade from JPMorgan, with concerns over the market's rational return regarding its IP heat [12]

Group 1: Fund Management and Market Operations - The first batch of 26 fund managers has reported floating management fee products following the public fund reform on May 7, with 21 large managers, 4 small managers, and 1 foreign-owned manager participating, all demonstrating strong equity management capabilities [1] - Recent restrictions on money market funds are aimed at preventing arbitrage funds from impacting stability, with measures including limiting large subscriptions and temporarily halting purchases [1] - Industry insiders have refuted claims that public fund assessment benchmarks are causing significant market repositioning, asserting that there is no large-scale repositioning occurring among public funds [1] Group 2: Automotive and Financial Sector - The People's Bank of China has implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing approximately 1000 billion yuan in funds, which is expected to significantly stimulate the automotive industry [2] - The core industry value added of the digital economy is projected to exceed 10% of GDP by the end of 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the digital sector [2] Group 3: Corporate Developments - The Honghu Fund Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion yuan, is set to invest in large-cap, liquid, and high-impact listed companies, emphasizing long-term capital investment [3] - Japan Display Inc. announced a voluntary retirement program for about 1500 employees, with a reported net loss of 78.2 billion yen for the fiscal year 2024 [4] - CATL's Hong Kong IPO has seen subscription amounts exceed 280 billion HKD, indicating strong market interest [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved Huadian New Energy's IPO registration on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5] Group 4: Market Performance and Trends - China State Construction reported new contract signings totaling 1.52 trillion yuan from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [7] - Tunnel Holdings' controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company with a total investment of between 250 million and 500 million yuan [8] - Datang Power has completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with proceeds aimed at debt repayment and operational funding [9] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline of 0.4%, with significant trading activity and a notable interest in high-position stocks [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices slightly declining, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.19% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 62.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The robotics sector saw a significant rally, with stocks like Midea Technology hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks also strengthened, with Baili Electric reaching the daily limit [1] - The intelligent driving sector was active, with companies such as Luchang Technology and others hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The logistics sector faced adjustments, with Huaguang Yuanhai dropping over 10% [1] Individual Stock Highlights - The robotics supply chain showed strong performance, with PEEK concept stocks leading the gains, including Zhongxin Fluorine Materials hitting the daily limit [2] - The automotive parts sector, particularly in intelligent driving, also saw significant gains, with multiple stocks reaching the daily limit [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a rapid growth phase, with a focus on commercialization and external licensing driving revenue growth [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Short-term market sentiment showed signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of rising stocks and limit-up stocks compared to the previous day [6] - High-level stocks are experiencing a resurgence, but there is caution regarding potential profit-taking risks due to accumulated gains [6] - The market lacks a clear leading theme, making it challenging to attract new capital, and the rapid rotation of hot topics continues to create volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4%, amidst a backdrop of fluctuating trading activity and continued interest in high-position stocks [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 62.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.19% [1] Stock Highlights - High-position stocks continued to attract capital, with several stocks such as Yuzhong Sanxia A hitting the daily limit [1] - Over 3,000 stocks in the market saw an increase, indicating a generally positive sentiment among individual stocks despite the overall index decline [1] Sector Performance - The robotics sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Madi Technology reaching the daily limit [1] - Controlled nuclear fusion concept stocks strengthened again, with Baili Electric also hitting the daily limit [1] - The intelligent driving sector was active, with multiple stocks including Luchang Technology reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, logistics concept stocks underwent adjustments, with Huaguang Source Sea dropping over 10% [1] - Sectors with notable gains included PEEK materials, controlled nuclear fusion, intelligent cockpit, and humanoid robots, while logistics, beauty care, insurance, and liquor sectors faced declines [1]

盘后涨停复盘 全天成交额进一步放量至1.96万亿元，为25年新高。大盘平开高走，在午后有所下跌，尾盘回暖，涨跌 家数4169:1088。 作者 | 韦三甲 编辑 | 小白 2月7日，全天成交额进一步放量至1.96万亿元，为25年新高。大盘平开高走，在午后有所下跌，尾盘 回暖，涨跌家数4169:1088。 涨停家数83，上个交易日90，涨停封板率下滑显著至65%，午后炸板数量上升。涨停排队资金降至7 2.98亿元。 冀凯股份全天多次炸板，收盘的时候封上了涨停，晋级13天11板，属于二波之后新高。今天属于一个 栏板，全天还手率26.6%，也属于历史绝对高位。 新炬网络一字板涨停晋级7连板，换手率更是低至0.72%，下个交易日获得高溢价概率大。若能再次 晋级也将为高连板个股打开新高度。 每日互动尽管今日冲击4连板失败，但还是凭借高涨幅成功挑战异动，10日涨幅128.23%。但其52.3 9%的超高换手率需要警惕。 竞业达今日低开后走势并不理想，但在收盘前急速拉升至涨停，实现4天3板。 近日华为云、阿里云、腾讯云、百度智能云、360数字安全、云轴科技等多个平台宣布上线DeepSeek 大模型，用户可以在各大平台上调用 ...

宝马中国涨价了 上半年三大航减亏，春秋、吉祥扩大盈利 今年 46 家 A 股芯片公司终止 IPO，超过去年全年 宝马中国涨价了 在上周有关宝马中国打算退出价格战的话题冲上热搜第一后，宝马中国 7 月 12 日说 "下半年宝马在 中国市场将重点关注业务质量，支持经销商稳扎稳打"。 现在，宝马北京朝阳区一家 4S 店的销售说，"全系车型都涨价了，从这周开始涨的。" 不排除这位销售说这话是为了吸引人去线下谈，但同时有多个北京经销商表示宝马已从本周开始回收 终端（即 4S 店）折扣，不同车型、配置价格上浮程度不一。 当前宝马纯电动 i3 35L 裸车价 20 万元，宝马全新一代 530 Li 领先型裸车价约 37.6 万元，均较上月 贵约一万元。海淀区一家门店销售称，"涨价不是一下子完成的，这周涨一点儿、下周再涨一点儿， 慢慢涨上去。" 懂车帝社区也有来自成都、苏州等地的车主分享最近一个月 4S 店上浮报价的见闻。宝马已明确退出 价格战，奥迪、奔驰也在悄悄收紧。上海宝马中环的一位销售表示，7 月以来豪华品牌的终端折扣都 在陆续收紧，"只不过宝马公开说了"。 北京朝阳、房山的奥迪经销商证实，奥迪已从 7 月 5 日开始 ...