1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for PX, PTA, and MEG are all "trending strongly" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has a medium - term unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections and a 3 - 5 reverse spread operation due to supply relaxation and a focus on the capital side, and the unilateral price remains strong due to downstream pre - spring demand [4] - PTA has a unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections. Future supply and demand will be weak, leading to a stock - building situation. There is support around the 5100 - 5200 range, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [5] - MEG should be bought on dips and traded in the 3800 - 4200 range. Supply pressure is high, but the downside is limited, and the short - term trend is still strong [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX主力 was 7376, down 254 or 3.33%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 56, down 6 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA主力 was 5258, down 180 or 3.31%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 16, down 14 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG主力 was 3938, down 56 or 1.40%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 92, up 5 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF主力 was 6662, down 164 or 2.40%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 46, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC主力 was 446.7, down 10.6 or 2.32%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 8.3, up 12.6 from the previous day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 902.67 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 357.42 dollars/ton, up 17.75 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The PTA East China price was 5220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 415.64 yuan/ton, up 51.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3827 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price was 568.5 dollars/ton, down 4.75 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 69.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **PX**: An 800,000 - ton PX plant in South China is restarting and expected to produce products soon. The PX spot price dropped significantly on January 27, and the 2 - month MOPJ naphtha price was around 563 dollars/ton CFR [3] - **MEG**: From January 26 to February 1, the planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 147,000 tons [3] - **Polyester**: On January 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 68% [3][4]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions. The 1 - 5 month - spread is in a reverse arbitrage. Although weekend sales volume boosts the overall price of the industrial chain, it doesn't change the medium - term weak trend. PXN has short - term support starting from late August [7]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to the support of unplanned production cuts on PTA processing fees, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but high坯布 inventory and weak crude oil prices affect its performance [8]. - MEG has a weak and oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Keep the 9 - 1 spread in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. This week, both supply and demand of ethylene glycol increase, but the near - end driving force for the industrial chain is weak [9]. Market Dynamics PX - On the 12th, the price of PX decreased, with an Asian spot for October trading at 834. There was no negotiation for September at the end of the session, and the negotiation ranges for October and November were 833/840 and 821/837 respectively. The 9/10 swap changed from +5 to -1 on the 12th. The news of a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce buffered the loss in the PX market, and crude oil futures rose during the session. The PX - naphtha price spread narrowed to 263.67 dollars/ton [5]. PTA - A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, stopped on the weekend, and the restart time is to be tracked. A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting after a maintenance starting around August 1st [6]. MEG - From August 11th to 17th, the expected arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo, and Shanghai ports are 46,000 tons, 95,000 tons, 0 tons, and 0 tons respectively, with a total expected arrival at major ports of about 141,000 tons [6]. Polyester - On the 12th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of 30% - 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - PTA trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - MEG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Futures and Spot Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had price increases of 0.80%, 0.42%, 0.41%, 0.37%, and 1.19% respectively. The 9 - 1 month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC changed by 18, -8, -3, -14, and -1.3 respectively [4]. Spot - The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent changed by -1, 10, 18, 2, and -0.49 respectively. The PX - naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread changed by -7.5, 25.77, 24.14, 23.07, and 0 respectively [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].