Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term market for p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) is a volatile market, and the medium - term is still bullish [1][9][10] Core Viewpoints - For PX, with the intraday correction of crude oil, PX follows suit. In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is still bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply is affected by the unplanned maintenance of a 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea, and the demand side shows that some PTA plants reduce their loads while polyester profits expand smoothly. The aromatics blending oil economy recovers. The strategy suggests focusing on the 9000 - 12000 range and going long on PX and short on PTA [9] - For PTA, with the intraday correction of crude oil and PX, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices but buy on dips. The supply side sees some PTA plants reducing their loads, and on the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%. The profit transmission is smooth. The 05 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to 350 yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee fluctuates greatly [9] - For MEG, it is a short - term volatile market and medium - term bullish. One should not chase high prices. The supply side has a significant reduction in the load of many naphtha cracking units, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%. The overall supply has decreased by more than 20%. On the demand side, the坯布 inventory is continuously decreasing, but downstream orders are cautious due to high - level fluctuations and chaotic quotes of raw materials. The polyester load has recovered to 87.2%, and the average monthly load estimates for March and April are both reduced by 2.5%, and the polyester load will stabilize later. The profits of multiple processes such as coal - based and oil - based are differentiated, and the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol strengthen with the cost [10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts yesterday were 10180, 6982, 4897, 8368, and 770.5 respectively, with price increases of 162, 48, 168, 92, and 19.7, and price increase rates of 1.62%, 0.69%, 3.55%, 1.11%, and 2.62% respectively [2] - The month - spread closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 yesterday were 578, 292, 82, - 166, and - 2.5 respectively, with price increases of 42, 4, 17, 22, and - 2 respectively [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 1294.67 dollars/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, 4855 yuan/ton, 1052.5 dollars/ton, and 103.69 dollars/barrel respectively, with price increases of 21 dollars/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 183 yuan/ton, - 7.25 dollars/ton, and 0.23 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 214.58, 280.7, 5.4, 1022.41, and - 4.34 respectively, with price changes of - 113.5, 36.78, 15.57, 515.44, and 0 respectively [2] Fundamental Data - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimated price of April MOPJ is 949 dollars/ton CFR. On March 16, the PX price rose, and a May Asian spot was traded at 1291. The Asian xylene price rose continuously on March 16, following the rise of the Chinese futures market. A 100 - million - ton PX device in South Korea is planned to be shut down for maintenance at the end of this month, and the restart time is to be determined [3][5] - PTA: A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has recently reduced its load to 50% from the previous 80%, and a 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China has currently reduced its load to 90% [5] - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran has been restarted, but the shipping plan is not clear; another 445,000 - ton/year MEG device in Iran is planned to resume production within this week. A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia is planned to restart around the second quarter of this year [6] - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Shaoxing started shutdown maintenance on the 15th. On March 16, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 47% by around 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 16 was still light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by around 3:30 pm. The weekend sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally light, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 10% in two days [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising energy prices on agricultural products, highlighting the interconnectedness of energy markets and agricultural commodities, and outlines three main logical pathways through which these effects manifest. Group 1: Energy Price Impact on Agricultural Products - Historical patterns show that surges in energy prices lead to increased demand for alternative fuels, which in turn boosts industrial consumption of agricultural products, resulting in rising grain prices [2] - The current energy crisis is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with varying degrees of impact across different agricultural commodities [2] Group 2: Oilseeds and Fats - Oilseeds, particularly palm oil, are closely linked to crude oil prices, with approximately 28% of global oilseed consumption used for biodiesel production. Rising crude oil prices make biodiesel production more economically viable, increasing demand for oilseeds [3] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic palm oil futures rose by 1.13% to 9818 CNY/ton, driven by crude oil price increases and potential policy changes in Indonesia that could raise palm oil consumption by approximately 3 million tons [3] - The price spread between palm oil and diesel is narrowing, indicating a shift in the valuation of oilseeds due to high oil prices [3] Group 3: Oilseed Meal - The price increase in soybean meal and rapeseed meal is driven by two factors: overall commodity price increases and rising shipping costs due to delays in soybean imports from Brazil and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [5] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic soybean meal prices rose, with Tianjin at 3380 CNY/ton, influenced by reduced import volumes and strong pricing intentions from oil mills [5] - The correlation between rising crude oil prices and soybean prices is evident, as higher oil prices enhance the profitability of soybean oil production, thereby increasing soybean prices [5] Group 4: Cotton - Cotton prices are supported by two main factors: the competitiveness of cotton against synthetic fibers due to rising raw material costs and increased planting costs driven by higher fertilizer prices [6] - The price of urea, a key fertilizer, has risen significantly, impacting cotton production costs and potentially leading to stronger cotton prices in the market [6] Group 5: Sugar - The relationship between sugar and ethanol production is highlighted, with rising crude oil prices making ethanol production more attractive, thereby reducing sugar supply and increasing prices [8] - The expectation of reduced sugar production in Brazil due to the shift towards ethanol is becoming more pronounced, with domestic sugar prices also showing signs of support despite high industrial inventories [9] Group 6: Corn - Corn prices are influenced by both international market trends and domestic supply-demand dynamics, with rising import costs due to increased shipping expenses [10] - As of March 12, 2026, domestic corn prices ranged from 2360 to 2510 CNY/ton, with market pressures from increased rice supply affecting corn pricing [10] Group 7: Livestock and Eggs - The livestock sector, particularly for pigs and eggs, faces pressure from rising feed costs, which constitute a significant portion of total production costs [11] - As of March 12, 2026, the average price of pigs was 10.16 CNY/kg, with rising feed prices squeezing profit margins for producers [11] Group 8: Fertilizers - Fertilizer prices, particularly urea, are rising due to supply chain disruptions, which will ultimately affect the planting costs of various agricultural products [13] - The increase in fertilizer prices is expected to have a slow but significant impact on the overall cost structure of agricultural production [13] Group 9: Summary of Agricultural Product Logic - The article summarizes the impact of geopolitical tensions on agricultural products through three main lines: energy substitution logic, cost-push logic, and substitution product logic [14] - Rising crude oil prices enhance the attractiveness of biofuels, increase import costs for key agricultural inputs, and improve the competitiveness of domestic products against imports [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the absolute price and structure are greatly affected by conflicts, with high uncertainty. If the conflict persists, production cuts may gradually spread to the TA end; if the conflict ends, the valuation of TA itself is also expected to improve. In the context of high volatility, one can consider the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [1]. - For MEG, in the case of the conflict continuing, the arrival of MEG is expected to decline rapidly. Coupled with the preventive load - reduction of some domestic devices, the short - term inventory removal speed will accelerate, while the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, so short - term observation is recommended [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the raw materials have strengthened significantly, and the downstream chasing sentiment is acceptable. The start - up is expected to continue to rise. The processing fee of staple fiber itself has been compressed to a relatively low level, but the load - increase is also continuing. The short - term driving force is not obvious. If the raw materials continue to be strong, production cuts may gradually increase. One can focus on the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips in the medium - to - long term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the PTA spot price fluctuated, the PX processing margin and PTA processing fee also changed. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2605(-9). The Yisheng New Materials with a capacity of 3.6 million tons reduced its load [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The near - end TA maintenance and load - increase coexisted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester load continued to rise, the inventory accumulated month - on - month, the basis strengthened, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. Some domestic PX devices reduced their loads, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN slightly expanded, the disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread decreased month - on - month [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the MEG price, profit, and load showed certain changes. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-90). The Shaanxi Coal with a capacity of 1.8 million tons had some capacity under maintenance [8]. - **Industry Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based devices had both maintenance and load - reduction, coal - based devices had partial maintenance, the overall start - up rate declined, the arrival decreased but the port inventory still accumulated due to weak shipments. The expected arrival volume decreased this week, the basis strengthened significantly, and the benefits of coal - based and ethane - based production improved significantly [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 8500, and the market basis was around 04 + 40. The near - end devices continued to restart, and the start - up rate rose to 84.6%. The production and sales during the holiday were weak but improved week - on - week, the inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee shrank month - on - month [8]. - **Industry Situation**: On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end also increased, the raw material inventory increased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the benefits weakened month - on - month. After the raw materials strengthened significantly, the downstream chasing sentiment was acceptable, and the start - up was expected to continue to rise [8]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. changed, and there were also changes in processing profits, spreads, etc. [8]. - **Industry Situation**: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text. Styrene and Related Products - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products changed, and the production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also showed different degrees of change [8]. - **Industry Situation**: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA has a mix of maintenance and increased load, the start - up rate has increased, polyester load continues to rise, inventory has accumulated, the basis has strengthened, and spot processing fees have weakened. The absolute price and structure are greatly affected by conflicts, with high uncertainty. If the conflict persists, production cuts may be passed on to the TA end; if the conflict ends, TA's own valuation is expected to improve. One can consider the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production has a mix of maintenance and reduced load, coal - based production has some maintenance, the overall start - up rate has declined, port inventory has accumulated, the basis has strengthened significantly, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits have improved greatly. If the conflict continues, EG arrivals are expected to decline rapidly, and short - term de - stocking will accelerate, while the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, so short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end devices continue to restart, the start - up rate has risen to 84.6%, the holiday sales were weak but improved week - on - week, inventory has decreased, and spot processing fees have shrunk. The downstream has a good sentiment of chasing up prices after the raw materials have strengthened. If the raw materials remain strong, production cuts may gradually increase. One can pay attention to the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the prices of various types of rubber have changed to different degrees. The overall market situation is affected by multiple factors, but no clear investment suggestions are given in the report [1]. - For EPS, PS, and ABS, the prices and production profits of related products have changed. The start - up rates of different products also show different trends, but no clear investment suggestions are given in the report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device Changes**: Yizheng's 3 million - ton device is under maintenance, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device has increased its load [1]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up rate has increased, polyester load continues to rise, inventory has accumulated, the basis has strengthened, and spot processing fees have weakened. PX domestic devices have reduced load, overseas maintenance has been implemented, PXN has slightly expanded, disproportionation and isomerization benefits have weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics price difference has decreased [1]. - **Outlook**: TA's benefits are shrinking due to its own increased load and strong raw materials. The absolute price and structure are greatly affected by conflicts. If the conflict persists, production cuts may be passed on to the TA end; if the conflict ends, TA's own valuation is expected to improve. One can consider the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [1]. MEG - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Coal's 1.8 million - ton partial capacity is under maintenance [1]. - **Market Situation**: The near - end domestic oil - based production has a mix of maintenance and reduced load, coal - based production has some maintenance, the overall start - up rate has declined, port inventory has accumulated, the basis has strengthened significantly, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits have improved greatly [1]. - **Outlook**: If the conflict continues, EG arrivals are expected to decline rapidly, and short - term de - stocking will accelerate, while the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, so short - term observation is recommended [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device Changes**: The near - end devices continue to restart, and the start - up rate has risen to 84.6% [1]. - **Market Situation**: The holiday sales were weak but improved week - on - week, inventory has decreased, and spot processing fees have shrunk. The downstream has a good sentiment of chasing up prices after the raw materials have strengthened [1]. - **Outlook**: If the raw materials remain strong, production cuts may gradually increase. One can pay attention to the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips in the medium - to - long - term [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of rubber such as US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, RMB mixed rubber, US - dollar Thai standard rubber, etc. have changed to different degrees [1]. - **Market Indicators**: Some indicators such as processing profit, price difference, and basis have also changed, but no clear investment suggestions are given [1]. EPS, PS, and ABS - **Price Changes**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, EPS, PS, and ABS have changed to different degrees [1]. - **Profit and Start - up Rate**: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have changed, and the start - up rates of different products also show different trends, but no clear investment suggestions are given [1].

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, crude oil showed an oscillating upward trend, with the average price rising month-on-month. Geopolitical tensions remain, and the market anticipates OPEC+ to increase production from April. The US is more inclined to continue nuclear talks with Iran, which may lead to a decline in oil prices. Short-term international crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile [4]. - The domestic PX load remained unchanged, and its valuation followed crude oil's rise and fall. PX processing fees were stable at around $305/ton. The PX supply is expected to tighten in Q2, and there is strong support at the bottom. The PTA market is in a phase of "increasing supply and stable demand." There is an expectation of PTA maintenance in Q2, and the medium-term outlook is still upward. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday orders [4]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) plant operating rate has rebounded, and the seasonal inventory accumulation is at a high level since 2021. There is an expectation of plant maintenance and a reduction in imports in Q2, and the fundamentals are expected to improve slightly. The current price of MEG is at an absolute low, with limited downside space, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - The pure benzene port inventory has slightly increased compared to before the holiday and remains at a historical high. The downstream performance is acceptable, and the styrene operating rate is expected to increase further. Pure benzene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For styrene, the domestic operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The focus of the market is on the de - stocking amplitude after March, and the overall supply pressure of styrene is gradually increasing. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Group 2: Industry Data Summary Crude Oil - This week, the overall crude oil price showed an oscillating upward trend, and the average price increased month - on - month [4]. PX&PTA - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization was 93.25%, and Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.51%, both unchanged from last week. The PX - naphtha price difference was stable at around $305/ton. An East China 2 million - ton PX plant plans to shut down for maintenance from mid - March for 30 - 40 days, and another 700,000 - ton PX plant plans to conduct maintenance in early April for 50 - 60 days [6]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 5,268 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan/ton from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization was 73.66%, a 0.28% increase from last week. The in - plant inventory days were 5.47 days, an increase of 1.46 days from last week. The PTA processing fee was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton from last week [13]. MEG - This week, the price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3,639 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 66.34%, a 1.15% increase from last week. The port inventory in East China was 93.5 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week. The inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival was slightly lower than expected [18]. Polyester and Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization of the Chinese polyester industry was 77.27%, a 1.25 - percentage - point increase from last week. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of polyester fiber staple fiber and polyester filament increased. The starting rate of sample weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 22.63%, a 10.87% increase from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 5.96 days, an increase of 0.15 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory was 24.23 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from last week [24]. BZ&EB - This week, the domestic capacity utilization of pure benzene was 78.87%, a 0.56% decrease from last week; the styrene capacity utilization was 74.65%, a 1.45% increase from last week. The pure benzene - naphtha price difference was around $165/ton, with little change. The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port sample in Jiangsu was 30.4 tons, unchanged from last week and still at a high level; the total inventory of the styrene port sample in Jiangsu was 15.1 tons, a significant increase of 5.48 tons from last week; the on - site inventory was 11.75 tons, an increase of 1.71 tons from last week [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains its fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the reduction in domestic demand and production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is currently operating at about 80% capacity. Affected by profits, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The duration of the conversion is undetermined. Driven by this news, speculative market demand has increased significantly. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 463.5 yuan/barrel on February 5, 2026, to 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6, 2026, with an increase of 1.90 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1775.7 yuan/ton to 1783.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA/SC Ratio**: It rose from 1.5272 to 1.5274, an increase of 0.0003 [3] - **CFR China PX**: The price increased from 892 to 898, an increase of 6 [3] - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Remained unchanged at 294 [3] - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: Rose from 5144 yuan/ton to 5166 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Price**: Decreased from 5100 yuan/ton to 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.0 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 415.0 yuan/ton to 412.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Decreased from 459.0 yuan/ton to 448.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9 yuan/ton [3] - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: Increased from (77) to (72), an increase of 5.0 [3] - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 103,568 [3] - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: Decreased from 3745 yuan/ton to 3743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (184.58) to (195.44), a decrease of 10.9 [3] - **MEG Domestic Market Price**: Decreased from 3649 yuan/ton to 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.0 yuan/ton [3] - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: Increased from - 103 to - 102, an increase of 1.0 [3] - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 85.92% [3] - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 76.73% [3] - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 61.67% [3] - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 78.66% to 78.14%, a decrease of 0.52% [3] - **POY150D/48F Price**: Increased from 7000 to 7005, an increase of 5.0 [3] - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from 167 to 191, an increase of 24.0 [3] - **FDY150D/96F Price**: Remained unchanged at 7240 [3] - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (93) to (74), an increase of 19.0 [3] - **DTY150D/48F Price**: Remained unchanged at 8140 [3] - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from 107 to 126, an increase of 19.0 [3] - **Filament Sales Volume Ratio**: Decreased from 22% to 12%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber Price**: Increased from 6525 to 6535, an increase of 10 [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 42 to 71, an increase of 29.0 [3] - **Staple Fiber Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 52% to 56%, an increase of 4% [3] - **Semi - Bright Chip Price**: Decreased from 5865 to 5860, a decrease of 5.0 [3] - **Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (68) to (54), an increase of 14.0 [3] - **Chip Sales Volume Ratio**: Increased from 35% to 64%, an increase of 29% [3] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th - A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The PX supply increases with rising开工率, and the PXN processing fee is compressed. [6] - PTA has limited downside space, and the spread is bearish. The PTA processing fee above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The terminal demand has some positive factors, and the polyester开工率 is expected to recover. The PTA supply remains stable, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7] - MEG has a large supply pressure, and a reverse spread strategy for basis and spread is recommended. The supply is increasing, but the demand from polyester is weak, leading to large inventory accumulation in February and difficult inventory digestion after the holiday. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract is 7262, up 62 (0.86%). The PX5 - 9 spread is 14, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR China price is 898, up 5.33. The PX - naphtha spread is 288.08, down 16. [4] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract is 5166, up 22 (0.43%). The PTA5 - 9 spread is 8, up 12 from the previous day. The East China price is 5090, down 25. The PTA processing fee is 428.01, up 15. [4] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract is 3743, down 2 (-0.05%). The MEG5 - 9 spread is - 114, down 2 from the previous day. The spot price is 3630, down 12. [4] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract is 6578, up 14 (0.21%). The PF3 - 4 spread is - 80, unchanged from the previous day. [4] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract is 469.8, up 2.6 (0.56%). The SC2 - 3 spread is 0, up 7.5 from the previous day. [4] Fundamental Data - **MEG**: A 850,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia plans to shut down for maintenance from March to April for 1 - 2 months. The restart time of a 380,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia is to be determined. The MEG装置开工率 has risen to 76.22% (+1.85%). [5][8] - **Polyester**: The polyester maintenance volume in January and February is 9.11 million tons and 6.81 million tons respectively, with a total of about 15.92 million tons. A 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. The polyester开工率 is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. [5][7] - **PX**: The domestic PX开工率 is 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian装置开工率 is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6% (+1%). [6] - **PTA**: The PTA开工率 remains at 77.6%. New Fengming's 2.5 - million - ton plant is under maintenance in February, and there is a cumulative inventory pattern in January - February. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].