智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，香港交易所(00388)将于下月初公布今年第三季业绩，目前预测季 度收入及纯利将同比增长43%及53%，达到77亿及48亿港元，再创新高。瑞银的预测较市场普遍预期高 出8%及11%。该行因应市场气氛情况及南下资金参与度上升，将2025至2027年日均成交额预测上调9% 至16%，并将港交所每股盈利预测上调7%至12%，目标价相应由464港元升至485港元，评级"中性"。 瑞银估计第三季净投资收入将录9.33亿港元，同比及按季分别跌23%及40%，主要受到港元拆息走弱及 可能因美元贬值产生汇兑损失影响。第三季日均成交额再创新高至2,860亿港元，南下资金贡献占比提 升至约27%，相对于第一及第二季分别为23%与24%，估计自2020年以后，南下资金的换手率估计为本 地及外资投资者的两倍以上，预期整体换手率将出现结构性改善。 ...

港股通数据统计周报 2025.9.29-2025.10.5 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.9.29-2025.10.5） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 可选消费 | 81798701 | 151.41 | | 2 | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 信息技术 | 6902320 | 46.49 | | 3 | 0981.HK | 中芯国际 | 信息技术 | 22795547 | 20.72 | | 4 | 9660.HK | 地平线机器人-W | ...

王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 2025 年 10 月 06 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（49）-对近期北向持 续撤离，南下持续抄底的几点思考》 -2022.3.15 开源量化评论（50）-港股优选：技术 面、资金面、基本面》-2022.3.22 《开源量化评论（96）-公募港股投资 变化及港股通优选组合构建》 -2024.7.15 港股量化：南下资金创 2021 年 2 月以来新高，1 ...

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥22.247 billion with a holding change of 139,830,551 shares[8] - BeiGene (6160.HK) ranked second with a net buy of ¥2.019 billion and a holding change of 10,056,137 shares[8] - Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) was the top net sell company with a net sell amount of -¥1.948 billion and a holding change of -34,353,051 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The financial sector saw a net buy of ¥1.630 billion, primarily driven by China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK)[8][9] - The healthcare industry had a total net buy of ¥3.046 billion, with significant contributions from BeiGene (6160.HK) and Innovent Biologics (9606.HK)[8][9] - The technology sector experienced a net sell of -¥12.94 billion, largely due to Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) and Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥70.25 billion and a net buy of ¥4.73 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) had a trading volume of ¥62.79 billion with a net sell of -¥3.08 billion on the Shenzhen Stock Connect[18] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) recorded a trading volume of ¥44.40 billion with a net buy of ¥5.68 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[19]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥179.99 billion with a holding change of 119,120,888 shares[8] - Horizon Robotics-W (9660.HK) ranked second with a net buy of ¥37.96 billion, increasing its holdings by 371,459,400 shares[8] - Pop Mart (9992.HK) led the net sell list with a net sell amount of -¥25.29 billion, decreasing its holdings by 9,136,051 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights significant net buying in the Consumer Discretionary sector, particularly with companies like Alibaba and Meituan[11] - Financial sector companies like Ping An (2318.HK) and AIA (1299.HK) also saw substantial net buying, indicating investor confidence in financial services[8] - The Information Technology sector experienced notable net selling, particularly with companies like Xiaomi and Kuaishou, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) was the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥87.74 billion and a net buy of ¥20.76 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[18] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had a trading volume of ¥50.99 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥16.35 billion, indicating a decline in investor interest[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) showed a trading volume of ¥31.72 billion with a slight net buy of ¥1.85 billion, suggesting stable investor confidence[18]

Group 1 - Recent inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks has reached a record high, with net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, marking a significant increase compared to last year's total [2][3] - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is expected to change and optimize the investment structure and valuation logic of the Hong Kong stock market, with technology and consumer sectors now dominating market capitalization [4][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a rotation in investment preferences, with southbound funds showing a clear preference for high dividend, low valuation, and high growth sectors [5][6] Group 2 - Despite recent market corrections, analysts believe that the fundamentals for a bull market in Hong Kong stocks remain intact, with the market undergoing a phase of value reassessment [7][8] - The Hong Kong IPO market has been robust, with 50 new stocks listed this year, raising over 128 billion HKD, which has attracted both southbound and foreign capital [3][4] - The shift in the dominance of southbound funds from retail to institutional investors has enhanced the professional investment capabilities and value discovery in the market [4][5]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 56.23 billion HKD today [1] - The top net purchases included Alibaba-W (21.44 billion HKD), Meituan-W (19.53 billion HKD), and Horizon Robotics-W (14.38 billion HKD) [1] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Alibaba for 11 days, totaling 195.2289 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have net bought Xiaomi for 3 consecutive days, totaling 20.9448 billion HKD [1] - Meituan has also seen net purchases for 3 consecutive days, amounting to 30.4999 billion HKD [1] - The net sales included 5.76 billion HKD for Sanofi and 5.75 billion HKD for Kuaishou-W [1]

Group 1 - Southbound capital has significantly increased its investment in Hong Kong stocks this year, with a net purchase amount exceeding 1 trillion HKD, surpassing the total net purchase for the entire previous year [1] - From January 1 to September 2, the net purchase amount reached 10,002.21 billion HKD, setting a historical record [1] - There have been 43 trading days this year where the net purchase exceeded 10 billion HKD, with 11 days surpassing 20 billion HKD, including a peak of 35.876 billion HKD on August 5 [1] Group 2 - As of September 2, there are 410 stocks with a southbound capital holding ratio exceeding 10%, 145 stocks exceeding 30%, and 39 stocks exceeding 50% [2] - The top three stocks by holding ratio are China Telecom at 73.99%, Gree Power at 70.03%, and China Shenhua at 67.69% [2] - From 2020 to 2024, the net purchase amounts were 672.1 billion HKD, 454.4 billion HKD, 386.3 billion HKD, 318.8 billion HKD, and 807.869 billion HKD respectively, with a notable increase in 2024 and 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds recorded a net sell-off of 20.441 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks, marking the largest single-day net sell amount in history [1] - Notable net purchases included SMIC at 892 million HKD, CanSino Biologics at 511 million HKD, and Hua Hong Semiconductor at 463 million HKD [1] - Significant net sell-offs were observed in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at 11.89 billion HKD and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 4.776 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - The article lists the top net purchases, including China Life at 383 million HKD, Meituan-W at 333 million HKD, and Alibaba-W at 329 million HKD [1] - Other notable net sell-offs included Tencent Holdings at 583 million HKD and Xiaomi Group-W at 299 million HKD [1] - The overall trend indicates a significant shift in investor sentiment, with a marked preference for certain technology and biotech stocks while divesting from major index funds [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the inflow of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting a significant increase in institutional investor participation, which enhances market stability and reduces retail investor volatility [1][2][5][9]. Key Points on Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) - TME reported Q2 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 18% year-over-year and adjusted net profit growth of 37% [1][6]. - The number of paid users reached 124 million, a 6.3% increase, with an Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of 11.7 yuan, up 9.3% [7]. - The company’s SVIP user count exceeded 15.5 million, representing 12.1% of paid users [7]. - TME's advertising and concert-related business saw significant growth, achieving revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a 47% year-over-year increase [7]. - The company's valuation has increased, with a current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 25 to 30 times, expected to decrease to 20 to 24 times by 2026 [3][10]. Key Points on NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music experienced a 6% year-over-year revenue decline in Q2 2025, primarily due to challenges in its live streaming business [1][8]. - Despite the decline, the social entertainment segment stabilized, and the company improved its gross margin and R&D expense ratio [11]. - The adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, and the valuation is comparable to TME, with a PE ratio of about 30 times for the current year and 25 times for 2026 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The online audio streaming market has high entry barriers, with TME and NetEase Cloud Music maintaining strong valuations due to their market positions and liquidity [3][14][15]. - Soda Music, a competitor, has rapidly increased its monthly active users (MAU) to around 100 million, but its market focus is more on lower-tier cities, posing limited immediate threat to TME and NetEase Cloud Music [12]. Future Outlook - The southbound capital inflow is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for the year, with institutional investors being the primary source of this growth [1][5]. - The increasing proportion of institutional capital is expected to stabilize the Hong Kong stock market, reducing the volatility typically associated with retail investors [9]. - TME's future growth will depend on its subscription rates, SVIP user growth, and performance in the concert economy [10]. Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the market indicates a preference for content platforms, with TME's paid penetration rate having significant room for growth compared to international peers [10]. - The competitive dynamics in the online audio streaming sector suggest that even if quarterly results fluctuate, the long-term investment potential remains strong due to established competitive barriers [14].