摘要 解密南下：谁在买，还有多少空间；从 Spotify 看 TME、网易云音乐的成长空间 20250826 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（TME）在 2025 年第二季度业绩全面超预期。收入同比增 长 18%，毛利率和经营利润率均有所提升，经调整净利润同比增加 37%。在 2025 年上半年南下资金净流入达 6,800 亿元，预计三季度超万亿，全 年或超 1.2 万亿元，机构投资者占比提升，公募和险资为主要增量来源， 预计险资全年南下规模超 3,000 亿元，公募增量达 2,000~3,000 亿元。 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（TME）2025 年 Q2 业绩超预期，收入同比增长 18%，经调整净利润同比增 37%，付费用户达 1.24 亿，ARPU 达 11.7 元，SVIP 用户超 1,550 万，广告和演唱会周边业务显著增长，预计全 年经调整净利润 96 亿元左右。 网易云音乐 2025 年 Q2 收入同比下滑 6%，主要受直播业务拖累，但社 交娱乐业务企稳，毛利率和研发费用率提升，降本增效显著，经调整净 利润超预期，估值水位与 TME 相当，对应今年新调整净利润约 30 倍 PE。 机构投资者主导南向资金，增强港股市场 ...

港股通数据统计周报 2025.8.18-2025.8.24 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.8.18-2025.8.24） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2628.HK | 中国人寿 | 金融 | 174625000 | 43.27 | | 2 | 2800.HK | 盈富基金 | | 121631600 | 31.43 | | 3 | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 信息技术 | 4229877 | 25.38 | | 4 | 3033.HK | 南方恒生科技 | | 45792960 ...

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) with a net buy amount of 3.385 billion CNY, representing a holding change of 64,050,171 shares[9] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) ranks second with a net buy amount of 1.383 billion CNY, with a holding change of 11,710,368 shares[9] - The top net sell company is Yingfu Fund (2800.HK) with a net sell amount of -6.188 billion CNY, reflecting a holding change of -239,840,000 shares[10] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report highlights the distribution of net buy/sell across various industries, indicating significant activity in the Information Technology sector[12] - Financial services also show notable net buy activity, particularly with China Life (2628.HK) and AIA Group (1299.HK)[12] - The Medical Care sector has seen mixed results, with notable net buys for companies like Zai Lab (9688.HK) and net sells for WuXi Biologics (2269.HK)[12] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is Yingfu Fund (2800.HK) with a total trading volume of 8.120 billion CNY and a net buy of 8.110 billion CNY[19] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) also remains active with a total trading volume of 4.998 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.560 billion CNY[19] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of 6.003 billion CNY but a net sell of -0.678 billion CNY[20]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 1.386 billion HKD today [1] - The top net purchases included China Life (672 million HKD), Alibaba-W (617 million HKD), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (389 million HKD) [1] - Southbound funds have net bought SMIC for five consecutive days, totaling 1.03549 billion HKD, and Alibaba for three consecutive days, totaling 2.52673 billion HKD [1] Group 2 - The net sales included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (6.413 billion HKD), Hang Seng China Enterprises (1.445 billion HKD), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (573 million HKD) [1] - Notable stock performance changes included Tencent Holdings down 0.8% and Hua Hong Semiconductor down 6.2% [3] - China Life saw an increase of 2.9%, while Oriental Selection increased by 5.2% [3]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 23.426 billion in Hong Kong stocks, marking the highest single-day net purchase since March 12 of this year [1] - The top net purchases included: - HKD 6.293 billion in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong - HKD 0.831 billion in Tencent Holdings - HKD 0.798 billion in Southern Hang Seng Technology - HKD 0.646 billion in Kuaishou-W - HKD 0.586 billion in Li Auto-W - HKD 0.511 billion in Alibaba-W - HKD 0.386 billion in Meitu - HKD 0.290 billion in CanSino Biologics - HKD 0.270 billion in Meituan-W - HKD 0.248 billion in Xiaomi Group-W - HKD 0.232 billion in Innovent Biologics - HKD 0.121 billion in SMIC [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have net purchased Tencent for 9 consecutive days, totaling HKD 4.426 billion - Southbound funds have net purchased Xiaomi for 8 consecutive days, totaling HKD 4.410 billion - Southbound funds have net purchased Kuaishou for 4 consecutive days, totaling HKD 2.452 billion [1]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is BYD Company Limited (1211.HK) with a net buy amount of 14.245 billion CNY, representing a significant increase of 122,586,413 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net buy amount of 6.866 billion CNY, with 274,875,500 shares acquired[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile Limited (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -2.151 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 25,038,050 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows strong activity with major net buys from China Construction Bank (0939.HK) and China Life Insurance (2628.HK), totaling 3.020 billion CNY and 2.416 billion CNY respectively[8] - The consumer discretionary sector is also prominent, with significant net buys from BYD and Li Auto (2015.HK), amounting to 14.245 billion CNY and 2.137 billion CNY respectively[8] - In contrast, the telecommunications sector, led by China Mobile, shows a notable net sell, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Meituan-W (3690.HK) is the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of 4.049 billion CNY and a net buy of 1.196 billion CNY[19] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) follows closely with a trading volume of 3.790 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.654 billion CNY[19] - Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK) also shows strong activity with a trading volume of 3.694 billion CNY and a net buy of 0.368 billion CNY[19]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has significantly increased its investment in the Hong Kong stock market this year, marking it as the largest source of incremental funds for the market in 2023 [1] Group 1 - As of July 29, 2023, the cumulative net inflow of southbound capital has exceeded 840 billion HKD, setting a new historical high for annual net inflows [1] - The net inflow for 2023 has already surpassed the previous record of 807.87 billion HKD for the entire year of 2024 [1]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China Life (2628.HK) with a net buy amount of 40.30 billion CNY, acquiring 177,142,212 shares[8] - The second highest net buy is China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 25.53 billion CNY, acquiring 307,628,796 shares[8] - The top net sell company is China Mobile (0941.HK) with a net sell amount of -29.03 billion CNY, selling 33,535,578 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The financial sector shows significant net buying activity, led by China Life and China Construction Bank, indicating strong investor confidence in financial stocks[8][9] - The technology sector, represented by Kuaishou (1024.HK) and SMIC (0981.HK), also sees substantial net buying, with Kuaishou netting 19.03 billion CNY[8] - Conversely, the telecommunications sector, particularly China Mobile, experienced notable net selling, reflecting potential investor concerns in this area[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - The most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is the盈富基金 (2800.HK) with a total trading volume of 49.37 billion CNY and a net buy of 49.02 billion CNY[18] - SMIC (0981.HK) is also among the top active stocks with a trading volume of 40.80 billion CNY but a net sell of -6.84 billion CNY, indicating volatility[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of 22.47 billion CNY and a net buy of 2.48 billion CNY, suggesting ongoing interest[18]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - Meituan-W (3690.HK) had the highest net buy amount of ¥34.74 billion with a holding change of 28,948,209 shares[8] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) recorded the largest net sell amount of -¥20.13 billion with a holding change of -19,157,265 shares[9] - Construction Bank (0939.HK) saw a net buy of ¥26.31 billion, ranking second in net buys[8] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The financial sector was prominent in net buys, with Construction Bank and ZhongAn Online contributing significantly[8] - The consumer discretionary sector, led by Meituan-W and Li Auto-W, also showed strong net buying activity[8] - In net sells, the financial sector, including Alibaba-W and China Merchants Bank, dominated the list[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Guotai Junan International (1788.HK) was the most active stock in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with a total trading volume of ¥103.99 billion[19] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) had a significant trading volume of ¥37.09 billion but recorded a net sell of -¥9.13 billion[19] - Meituan-W (3690.HK) was also active with a trading volume of ¥23.18 billion and a net buy of ¥4.02 billion[19]

- Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio; Model Construction Idea: The model selects the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on four types of factors (technical, capital, fundamental, and analyst expectations) from the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks and constructs an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month; Model Construction Process: The model uses the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD) (930930.CSI) as the benchmark. The specific construction process involves selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest scores based on the four types of factors and constructing an equal-weighted portfolio at the end of each month[3][37][39]; Model Evaluation: The model has shown excellent performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Technical Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Technical factors are constructed based on the price and volume data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various technical indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to evaluate the stock's price trend and momentum[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Technical factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Capital Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Capital factors are constructed based on the capital flow data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating the net capital inflow and outflow of stocks to evaluate the stock's capital flow trend[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Capital factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Fundamental Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Fundamental factors are constructed based on the financial data of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves calculating various financial ratios such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and total market value to evaluate the stock's financial health and valuation[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Fundamental factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] - Factor Name: Analyst Expectation Factors; Factor Construction Idea: Analyst expectation factors are constructed based on the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks; Factor Construction Process: The specific construction process involves collecting and analyzing the analyst ratings and target prices of stocks to evaluate the stock's future performance expectations[37][38]; Factor Evaluation: Analyst expectation factors have shown good performance in the Hong Kong Stock Connect sample stocks[37] Model Backtest Results - Hong Kong Stock Selection 20 Portfolio, Annualized Excess Return: 13.3%, Excess Return Volatility Ratio: 1.0[4][40][41] Factor Backtest Results - Southbound Capital, Average Return: 25.7%[32][36] - Foreign Capital, Average Return: 13.5%[32][36] - Domestic Capital, Average Return: 14.0%[32][36] - Hong Kong Capital and Others, Average Return: 10.2%[32][36]