港股通数据统计周报 2025.11.17-2025.11.23 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 港股通前十大活跃个股 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.11.17-2025.11.23） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1810.HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 105862338 | 40.31 | | 2 | 0883.HK | 中国海洋石油 | 能源 | 147299898 | 31.73 | | 3 | 1398.HK | 工商银行 | 金融 | 319540224 | 20.45 | | 4 | 2318.HK | 中国平安 | 金融 | 3 ...

港股通数据统计周报 2025.11.10-2025.11.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） | | 序号 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 净买入金额(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 | 1810. HK | 小米集团-W | 信息技术 | 105862338 | 44. 84 | | 2 | 0883. HK | 中国海洋石油 | 能源 | 147299898 | 33.00 | | 3 | 1398. HK | 工商银行 | 金融 | 319540224 | 20. 99 | | 4 | 2318. HK | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a fundamental change in pricing power due to significant inflows of mainland capital, which has altered the market dynamics and investor behavior [2][10][11]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Behavior - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 30% this year, outperforming other major indices, indicating strong market performance [2]. - Over 1 trillion yuan has flowed into the Hong Kong stock market from mainland investors this year, significantly impacting daily trading volumes [2][10]. - The proportion of mainland capital in various stocks, including internet and technology leaders, has increased, leading to more stable pricing and reduced volatility in some cases [2][10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Fund Management - The company has shifted its focus towards Hong Kong stocks, integrating them into the investment strategies of all A-share fund managers [3][34]. - The investment style for Hong Kong products is expected to be more diversified compared to A-shares, with a mix of balanced and high-conviction strategies [3][29][34]. - The firm believes that its expertise in cyclical and manufacturing sectors will enable it to achieve excess returns in the Hong Kong market [4][33]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Dynamics - The re-evaluation of Chinese assets is just beginning, with a significant portion of global investors still viewing the Chinese market as "non-investable" [17]. - The domestic savings rate is expected to shift from real estate to undervalued capital markets, particularly the Hong Kong stock market [17][18]. - The profitability of internet giants is anticipated to improve, with expectations of better-than-expected earnings in the coming quarters [18][21]. Group 4: Changes in Investor Composition - The share of mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly, with some leading companies seeing their ownership by mainland investors rise to over 20% [12][35]. - The market is transitioning from being primarily influenced by offshore investors to a more balanced structure with increased participation from domestic investors [9][12][35]. - The trend of overseas investors showing increased interest in Chinese assets is evident, with a shift from mere inquiries to actual investments [24][25].

Core Insights - As of November 10, southbound funds net purchased Hong Kong stocks amounting to 6.654 billion HKD, pushing the year-to-date net purchase amount to over 1.3 trillion HKD [1] - Cumulative net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect program has surpassed 5 trillion HKD, setting a new record since the inception of the mutual market access mechanism [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Activity** - Southbound funds net buying reached 6.654 billion HKD on November 10 [1] - Year-to-date net purchases exceeded 1.3 trillion HKD [1] - **Cumulative Inflows** - Total net inflow since the Stock Connect program began has crossed 5 trillion HKD [1] - This figure marks the highest level recorded since the mutual market access mechanism was established [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a temporary adjustment but is expected to rebound, presenting a good opportunity for investment as the economic fundamentals remain stable and resilient [1] - In October, the Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline due to external factors such as tariffs, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 8.6%, the Hang Seng Index by 3.5%, the Hang Seng Composite Index by 3.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 4.0% [1] - The performance of various sectors in October showed that utilities, finance, and materials sectors performed relatively well, while healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples lagged behind [1] Group 2 - The AH share premium index saw a slight recovery, rising to 120 by October 31, up 2.2% from 117 at the end of September, indicating it is at a historically low level since 2016 [2] Group 3 - The valuation levels of major Hong Kong stock indices slightly decreased, with the Hang Seng Index PE at 11.7, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index PE at 10.5, and the Hang Seng Technology Index PE at 22.9, all indicating low historical valuation levels [3] - Specific sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples are still at relatively low valuation levels, with the utilities index PE at 12.3, consumer discretionary at 22.8, and consumer staples at 23.8, reflecting their respective historical percentiles [3] Group 4 - Foreign capital outflow from the Hong Kong market has slowed down, with a net outflow of 669 million HKD in October, while southbound funds continue to flow significantly into the market, with a cumulative inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion RMB for the year [4] - In October, the net inflow of southbound funds reached 849 million RMB, contributing to a total cumulative inflow of 11.691 billion RMB for the year, marking a new high in recent years [4]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is China National Offshore Oil Corporation (0883.HK) with a net buy amount of ¥24.43 billion, representing a significant increase in holdings of 123,573,000 shares[8] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) ranks second with a net buy of ¥20.81 billion, with 27,741,774 shares added[8] - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is the top net sell company, with a net sell amount of -¥20.96 billion, reflecting a decrease of 12,692,433 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The energy sector saw the highest net buy amount, led by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, contributing to a total of ¥24.43 billion in net buys[8] - The telecommunications sector, represented by China Mobile (0941.HK), had a net buy of ¥17.44 billion, indicating strong investor interest[8] - The healthcare sector experienced significant net sells, with companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) showing a net sell of -¥13.54 billion[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba (9988.HK) was the most actively traded stock with a total trading volume of ¥58.52 billion, despite a net sell of -¥4.81 billion[18] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK) had a trading volume of ¥43.31 billion, with a slight net sell of -¥0.78 billion[18] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) recorded a trading volume of ¥30.98 billion, with a net sell of -¥1.72 billion, indicating volatility in investor sentiment[18]

Group 1: Top Net Buy Companies - The top net buy company is Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a net buy amount of 30.56 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 11,095,857 shares[8] - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) follows with a net buy amount of 29.88 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 65,019,122 shares[8] - China Mobile (0941.HK) ranks third with a net buy amount of 23.84 billion CNY and a change in holdings of 27,952,291 shares[8] Group 2: Top Net Sell Companies - The top net sell company is SMIC (0981.HK) with a net sell amount of -63.04 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -91,228,489 shares[9] - Alibaba (9988.HK) follows with a net sell amount of -40.16 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -26,011,949 shares[9] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) ranks third with a net sell amount of -27.79 billion CNY and a change in holdings of -4,569,909 shares[9] Group 3: Industry Distribution - The report highlights significant net buying in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in companies like Pop Mart and Meituan[11] - The technology sector shows notable net selling, with companies like SMIC and Tencent experiencing substantial outflows[11] - Financial services also see mixed activity, with both buying and selling observed in major banks like ICBC and CMB[11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that southbound funds have net purchased over 5 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks within the first half hour of trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) will report a year-on-year increase in quarterly revenue and net profit of 43% and 53%, reaching HKD 7.7 billion and HKD 4.8 billion respectively, setting new records [1] Financial Performance - The forecasted quarterly revenue and net profit are 8% and 11% higher than market expectations [1] - Estimated net investment income for Q3 is projected at HKD 933 million, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 23% and 40% respectively, primarily due to weaker HKD interbank rates and potential foreign exchange losses from USD depreciation [1] Trading Activity - Q3 average daily turnover is expected to reach a new high of HKD 286 billion, with southbound capital contribution increasing to approximately 27%, compared to 23% and 24% in Q1 and Q2 respectively [1] - The turnover rate of southbound capital is estimated to be more than twice that of local and foreign investors since 2020, indicating a structural improvement in overall turnover rates [1] Future Projections - UBS has raised its average daily turnover forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16% and adjusted its earnings per share forecast for HKEX upward by 7% to 12% [1] - The target price for HKEX has been increased from HKD 464 to HKD 485, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1: Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net buy company is Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy amount of ¥151.41 billion and a change in holdings of 81,798,701 shares[8] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) ranks second with a net buy amount of ¥46.49 billion and a change in holdings of 6,902,320 shares[8] - The top net sell company is the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell amount of -¥27.52 billion and a change in holdings of -99,061,725 shares[9] Group 2: Industry Distribution - The technology sector shows significant activity with multiple companies in the top net buy list, including SMIC (0981.HK) with a net buy of ¥20.72 billion[8] - The telecommunications sector has notable net sell activity, with China Mobile (0941.HK) experiencing a net sell of -¥14.04 billion[9] - The financial sector also shows net sell activity, particularly with China Construction Bank (0939.HK) at -¥9.24 billion[9] Group 3: Active Stocks - Alibaba (9988.HK) is the most active stock with a total trading volume of ¥88.49 billion and a net buy of ¥15.09 billion on the Shanghai Stock Connect[19] - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) ranks second with a total trading volume of ¥30.92 billion and a net buy of ¥7.16 billion[19] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) shows significant trading activity with a total volume of ¥39.81 billion but a net sell of -¥39.76 billion[19]