Core Viewpoint - Despite facing challenges such as declining raw milk prices, oversupply of milk sources, and intensified market competition, Tianrun Dairy's performance remains under pressure, with a projected net loss for the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - Tianrun Dairy expects a net loss of between 26 million to 18 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased disposal of low-yield dairy cows, losses from bulk milk powder sales, and impairment provisions for biological assets [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 625 million yuan, with a net profit turning into a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a decline of 1713.36% [2] - The company reported a non-recurring net profit of between 46 million to 67 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating potential recovery in profitability starting from the second quarter [1] Inventory and Impairment - Tianrun Dairy has faced significant inventory impairment pressures, particularly related to milk powder, leading to multiple impairment provisions totaling approximately 10.7 million yuan over various periods [3][4] - The company has been actively reducing its dairy cow population, with the number of cows culled in the first quarter of 2025 reaching 8,500, averaging about 94.4 cows disposed of daily [5] Market Strategy and Sales - Despite a decline in revenue from main products, overall sales volume increased by 12.37% year-on-year to 74,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to increased marketing expenditures [6] - Tianrun Dairy aims to achieve a sales target of 310,000 tons of dairy products and set a revenue goal of 3 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing industry challenges [7] Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Xin Nong Dairy for 326 million yuan has not yielded the expected benefits, with the subsidiary contributing a loss of 95.35 million yuan to Tianrun Dairy's profits in 2023 [8] - Xin Nong Dairy's performance has been disappointing, with a net loss of 81.36 million yuan in 2024, attributed to inventory impairments and cow disposal issues [8] Future Outlook - The company faces significant uncertainty regarding its ongoing projects, including the expansion of dairy farms, which have been delayed, leading to an impairment provision of approximately 1.03 million yuan [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, down 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant net loss of 2.42 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 17.71% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory reduction [1] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant growth in the premium infant formula segment [2] - Ice cream products experienced a revenue decline of 18.41% in 2024 and 5.25% in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a quarterly gross margin of 31.00% in Q4 2024 and 37.82% in Q1 2025, indicating an improvement due to lower raw milk prices [2] - Selling expense ratios decreased to 18.99% for 2024, 18.06% for Q4 2024, and 16.92% for Q1 2025, reflecting reduced promotional expenses [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.30%, with a significant net loss margin of -9.03% in Q4 2024, while Q1 2025 showed a recovery to 14.76% [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved sales performance in Q2 2025 due to a low base effect and expects a reduction in promotional expenses, which may enhance profitability [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 13.04 billion yuan [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]