Workflow
原奶价格回升
icon
Search documents
现代牧业:公司事件点评报告:业绩短期承压,期待原奶价格回升-20250329
Huaxin Securities· 2025-03-29 05:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but has strong cash flow performance. Revenue for 2024 was 13.254 billion, a decrease of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.469 billion, compared to a profit of 0.185 billion in the previous year. The decline in profit was primarily due to losses from changes in the fair value of dairy cows and goodwill impairment [6]. - The profitability of raw milk continues to improve, with revenue from raw milk reaching 10.454 billion, an increase of 1.9%, and a gross margin of 31.2%, up by 2.8 percentage points. The company anticipates a gradual recovery in milk prices as the industry undergoes consolidation [7]. - The company is expanding its feed business and making breakthroughs in breeding, with comprehensive solutions for dairy farming generating 2.8 billion in revenue, despite a 12.4% decrease. The sales volume of feed has exceeded 1 million tons [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 132.54 billion, down 1.5%, and a net profit of -14.69 billion, compared to 1.85 billion in the previous year. The gross margin improved to 26.0%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Cash EBITDA was 29.86 billion, with a cash EBITDA margin of 22.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 4.0 percentage points respectively [6]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 28.08 billion, up 17.3%, while capital expenditure decreased by 8.1% to 34.52 billion [6]. Raw Milk Business - Raw milk revenue was 104.54 billion, accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.2%. The production volume reached 3.01 million tons, an increase of 16.1%. The average selling price of raw milk was 3.61 yuan/kg, down 10.4% from the previous year, but still above the market price of 3.32 yuan/kg [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 139.50 billion, 147.80 billion, and 156.91 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 0.04, 0.10, and 0.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25, 11, and 7 times for the respective years [10].