东 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 经济要闻 1. 外交部：中英两国领导人成功会晤，同意发展长期稳定的全面战略伙伴 关系（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 财政部：12 月份，全国共销售彩票同比下降 9.1%。其中，福利彩票机 构销售 172.96 亿元，同比下降 9.6%；体育彩票机构销售 350.54 亿元，同 比下降 8.8%。2025 年全年，全国共销售彩票 6279.69 亿元，同比增长 0.7%。 （资料来源：同花顺） 3. 发改委：今年春运期间全社会跨区域人员流动量预计将达 95 亿人次， 创历史新高。自驾出行将继续处于主体地位，占比达八成左右。铁路、民航 客运量预计分别达到 5.4 亿人次和 9500 万人次，总体规模和单日峰值均有 望超过历史同期的峰值。（资料来源：同花顺） 4. 商务部：2025 年，我国全行业对外直接投资 12455.8 亿元人民币，比 上年增长 7.4%。其中，我国境内投资者共对全球 153 个国家和地区的 11048 家境外企业进行了非金融类直接投资，累计投资 10404.2 亿元人民币，增长 1.6%。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 最高法：最高人民法院知 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group's half-year report shows strong performance with revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2, Yili's revenue grew by 5.77%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% year-on-year, indicating a clear profitability turning point [2] - The overall gross margin for Yili reached 36.21%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 11.33%, marking a historical high [3] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk segment generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the largest market share in the industry; the milk powder and dairy products segment achieved 16.578 billion yuan in revenue, up 14.26%, also leading the market [2] - The diversified business now accounts for over 40% of Yili's revenue, with high gross margins contributing to overall profitability [3] Market Trends - The dairy industry is expected to see growth, with structural opportunities in low-temperature milk and rural markets [5] - Yili is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its strong brand, distribution channels, and supply chain advantages [5] Future Outlook - The stabilization of raw milk prices is anticipated to lead to a new growth phase for Yili, with expectations of a return to a state of volume and price increase [6] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing dairy production are expected to further support the industry's recovery [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure but has strong cash flow performance. Revenue for 2024 was 13.254 billion, a decrease of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.469 billion, compared to a profit of 0.185 billion in the previous year. The decline in profit was primarily due to losses from changes in the fair value of dairy cows and goodwill impairment [6]. - The profitability of raw milk continues to improve, with revenue from raw milk reaching 10.454 billion, an increase of 1.9%, and a gross margin of 31.2%, up by 2.8 percentage points. The company anticipates a gradual recovery in milk prices as the industry undergoes consolidation [7]. - The company is expanding its feed business and making breakthroughs in breeding, with comprehensive solutions for dairy farming generating 2.8 billion in revenue, despite a 12.4% decrease. The sales volume of feed has exceeded 1 million tons [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 132.54 billion, down 1.5%, and a net profit of -14.69 billion, compared to 1.85 billion in the previous year. The gross margin improved to 26.0%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Cash EBITDA was 29.86 billion, with a cash EBITDA margin of 22.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 4.0 percentage points respectively [6]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 28.08 billion, up 17.3%, while capital expenditure decreased by 8.1% to 34.52 billion [6]. Raw Milk Business - Raw milk revenue was 104.54 billion, accounting for 78.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.2%. The production volume reached 3.01 million tons, an increase of 16.1%. The average selling price of raw milk was 3.61 yuan/kg, down 10.4% from the previous year, but still above the market price of 3.32 yuan/kg [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 139.50 billion, 147.80 billion, and 156.91 billion respectively, with EPS projected at 0.04, 0.10, and 0.15 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 25, 11, and 7 times for the respective years [10].