证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好 2025 年牛周期反转上行。10 月 10 日，国 内牛肉市场价为 61.13 元/kg，环比-0.20%，同比+21.05%。 原奶：三季度奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。9 月 30 日，国内 主产区原奶均价为 3.04 元/kg，周度环比持平，同比-3.19%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。10 月 10 日，国内大豆现 货价为 3987 元/吨，周环比-1.8%，豆粕现货价为 3006 元/吨，周环比+0.6%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。10 月 10 日国内玉 米现货价 2233 元/吨，周环比-5.06%，同比+3.24%。 白糖：短期进口到港增加，关注到港节奏及原油价格波动。10 月 10 日，国 内广西南宁糖现货价为 5760 元/吨，较上周环比-0.35%。 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（178） 优于大市 贸易冲突支撑豆粕价格，国内外肉牛价格 Q4 有望共振上行 周度农产品跟踪：新一轮牛价上涨已开启，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy reported strong growth in its mid-year performance for 2025, achieving a revenue of 41.567 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.046 billion yuan, driven by significant growth in its fresh milk, ice cream, and cheese segments [1][2][4]. Revenue Performance - The liquid milk segment generated a revenue of 32.192 billion yuan, with fresh milk business growing by 22.3%, significantly outperforming the industry and increasing market share by 2.4 percentage points [2][4]. - Ice cream revenue reached 3.879 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15%, with the "Aixue" brand leading the market share in Indonesia [1][3]. - Cheese business revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 12.3%, maintaining a leading market position [4]. Strategic Developments - Mengniu has been accelerating strategic upgrades and operational efficiency, resulting in improved competitiveness, operational efficiency, and profitability [1][6]. - The company launched 72 new products in the ambient segment and 20 new ice cream products, focusing on health, premium, and personalized offerings [7]. Market Trends - The dairy industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality competition," creating significant opportunities for leading companies like Mengniu [6]. - The fresh milk segment is expected to become a key focus for dairy companies due to rising consumer health awareness and policy support [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is poised to enter a harvest period if raw milk prices stabilize and demand improves, as the current downturn in raw milk prices is expected to reverse [5][8].