Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianrun Dairy [6][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.074 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.81% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.11 billion yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [3] - The company has shown resilience in operations despite industry supply and demand pressures, with expectations for improvement in raw milk prices as the supply situation stabilizes [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 77.60% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 14.72%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points, while the net margin was 0.64%, down 5.68 percentage points [5] Product and Market Development - The company sold 226,800 tons of dairy products from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%. The revenue from ambient dairy products in Q3 2025 was 358 million yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year [4] - New product launches include various low-temperature yogurt and milk beer flavors, contributing to a diversified product matrix [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Xinjiang region in Q3 2025 was 358 million yuan, up 10.16% year-on-year, while revenue from outside Xinjiang was 300 million yuan, down 13.68% year-on-year [4] - The company expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of distributors in Xinjiang to 388 and outside Xinjiang to 574, totaling 962 distributors [4] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 2.750 billion, 2.957 billion, and 3.200 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 27 million, 124 million, and 187 million yuan [5][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 116, 25, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the pig farming sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aquaculture, benefiting companies like Haida Group [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price for beef at 61.13 yuan/kg as of October 10, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.05% [2]. - The report expects a significant acceleration in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg [2]. Swine - The report notes a decrease in pig prices to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and 38.45% year-on-year, but anticipates a long-term price stabilization due to industry restructuring [1][3]. Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for white chickens, with prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1]. - Yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with prices for various types of yellow chicken ranging from 5.00 to 8.70 yuan/kg [1]. Feed and Ingredients - Soybean meal prices are supported by supply-demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2]. - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with current prices at 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pig, poultry, pet, and feed sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, MuYuan Co., and HaiDa Group [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy reported strong growth in its mid-year performance for 2025, achieving a revenue of 41.567 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.046 billion yuan, driven by significant growth in its fresh milk, ice cream, and cheese segments [1][2][4]. Revenue Performance - The liquid milk segment generated a revenue of 32.192 billion yuan, with fresh milk business growing by 22.3%, significantly outperforming the industry and increasing market share by 2.4 percentage points [2][4]. - Ice cream revenue reached 3.879 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15%, with the "Aixue" brand leading the market share in Indonesia [1][3]. - Cheese business revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 12.3%, maintaining a leading market position [4]. Strategic Developments - Mengniu has been accelerating strategic upgrades and operational efficiency, resulting in improved competitiveness, operational efficiency, and profitability [1][6]. - The company launched 72 new products in the ambient segment and 20 new ice cream products, focusing on health, premium, and personalized offerings [7]. Market Trends - The dairy industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality competition," creating significant opportunities for leading companies like Mengniu [6]. - The fresh milk segment is expected to become a key focus for dairy companies due to rising consumer health awareness and policy support [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is poised to enter a harvest period if raw milk prices stabilize and demand improves, as the current downturn in raw milk prices is expected to reverse [5][8].