Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in livestock, pet industries, and companies with low valuations in the pig and poultry sectors [3][4]. - The beef price remains strong during the off-season, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [1][3]. - The supply of pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued price stability in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights that beef prices are resilient during the off-season, while pig prices show strong support [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the price of live pigs is 14.70 CNY/kg, down 3.86% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 445 CNY/head, up 2.75% week-on-week [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The price of live pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14]. 2.2 Poultry - The report notes a reduction in parent stock and structural changes in the poultry market, with consumption gradually shifting upwards [1][15]. 2.3 Beef - The domestic beef market price is 59.23 CNY/kg as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.38% [1][16]. 3. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 of 0.53, 3.57, and 2.64 CNY [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in pet products and Hai Da Group, while focusing on undervalued leading companies in the pig and poultry sectors [3] - The pork production capacity is expected to remain stable, with strong support for pig prices in 2025 [1][3] - The beef market is showing resilience during the off-season, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - Weekly pig price as of July 4 is 15.29 CNY/kg, up 5.01% week-on-week [1] - Chicken prices are experiencing a decline, with broiler prices at 6.18 CNY/kg, down 10% week-on-week [1] - The average beef price is 59.35 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 27.63% year-on-year [1] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Pork - Pork prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14] 2.2 Poultry - The parent stock of broilers is decreasing, indicating a structural change in consumption [1][15] 2.3 Beef - The beef market is expected to benefit from a cyclical upturn, with prices remaining strong [1][16] 2.4 Soybean Meal - Current soybean prices are stable at 3926 CNY/ton, with soybean meal prices at 2928 CNY/ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [2][16] 2.5 Corn - Corn prices are expected to see moderate increases, with current prices at 2443 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week [2][16] 2.6 Sugar - Sugar prices are slightly increasing, with current prices at 6050 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week [2][16] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Hai Da Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective EPS forecasts for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle and recommends investments in leading companies in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and raw milk, which are expected to experience a positive resonance in 2025 [3][4]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a growth sector benefiting from demographic changes, while the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to gain from the recovery in aquaculture [3][4]. - The report notes that the pig industry shows insufficient expansion willingness, but the overall market conditions are expected to remain stable through 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3][4]. - Poultry production is expected to maintain low volatility, with white chicken consumption gradually increasing and yellow chicken likely to benefit from improved domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: The average price of live pigs is 14.16 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 446 CNY/head, down 4.98% week-on-week [1][13]. - **Beef**: The domestic beef market price is 59.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a significant increase of 27.63% year-on-year [1][15]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks is 1.23 CNY/bird, down 43% week-on-week, while the price of eggs in major production areas is 2.90 CNY/jin, up 9.85% week-on-week but down 35.27% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed and Raw Materials - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3024 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1%. The report indicates strong support for supply and demand in the medium to long term [2][3]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn spot price is 2415 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5980 CNY/ton, down 0.17% week-on-week, with attention on import rhythms and crude oil price fluctuations [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry - **Pets**: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological - **Feed**: Haida Group - **Pork**: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, and others - **Poultry**: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in leading livestock companies with low valuations, and highlighting the sustained high demand in the pet industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the pork industry is expected to maintain a stable price environment, with a projected continuation of favorable conditions for pig prices into 2025 [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the cattle market due to domestic supply reduction and shrinking imports, suggesting a positive outlook for beef prices [3][15]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: Prices are stable with a current price of 13.99 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.95% [1][13]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks has decreased by 13.25% week-on-week to 2.2 CNY/chick, while the price of broilers has increased by 0.56% to 7.2 CNY/kg [1][14]. - **Beef**: The average price of beef is 59.38 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week but showing a year-on-year increase of 28.39% [1][15]. Feed and Crop Products - **Soybean Meal**: The current price is 2994 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.84% [2][15]. - **Corn**: The price has risen to 2406 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.43% and a year-on-year increase of 0.21% [2][15]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5990 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.32% [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price remains stable at 1700 USD/ton, with a slight increase in domestic prices [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry [4]. - **Pork**: Muyuan Foods, Huatong Foods, and others [3][4]. - **Pet Industry**: Guibao Pet and others [3][4]. - **Feed**: Haida Group [3][4]. - **Poultry**: Lihua Stock and others [3][4].