Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

【沥青】 今日原油反弹,沥青跟涨不及裂解回落。鑫海350万吨/年常减压于5月20日停产沥青,产量降至4000吨/天,江 苏新海300万吨常减压装置于5月20日转产渣油,此外,华东亦有主营炼厂间张停产,预计下周产能利用率下 降。上周沥青出货量为39.2万吨,环比上升4.9万吨。截至5月19日,54家样本炼厂库存环比下降1万吨、104家 样本贸易商库存下降4.4万吨,BU震荡偏强。春季策略展望中我们曾提示5月累阵压力预计大悟缓解,目前平衡 衰演绎符合此前预估。基于6月有望启动去库周期，后续待BU裂解有所回调后可择机再次布局多BU梨解策略。 【液化石油气】 国内到岸价整体回落,而5月上半月集中到岸压力仍存,华东库容率继续走高。进口成本支撑松动叠加炼厂外放 有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始室启,关注化工需求回 升的节奏。原油虽有所反弹,现货端短期仍有一定下行空间,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《八》国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 原油 | ななな | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]