Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply tightness logic continues to unfold, with copper prices breaking through historical highs. This week, copper prices increased significantly, with London copper rising by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper surpassed $12,000 per ton, while Shanghai copper exceeded ¥100,000 per ton. Supply-side concerns are heightened due to potential strikes at Chilean copper mines, which could exacerbate the tight supply situation. The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the non-ferrous sector increasing by 6.43%, outperforming the index by 4.54 percentage points. Lithium, copper, and tungsten sectors showed the highest gains, while rare earths and tin lagged behind [11][12] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices rose by 3.22%, Shanghai copper by 5.95%, and New York copper by 6.71%. London copper inventory decreased by 2.10%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 16.59%. The smelting fee was reported at -$44.9 per ton, indicating a loss in copper smelting profits [26][23] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.48%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 1.57%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum saw slight increases. The price of alumina fell by 2.36%, while aluminum smelting profits rose by 5.70% to ¥6,402 per ton [37][37] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices increased by 0.63%, and Shanghai lead prices rose by 3.00%. London zinc prices rose by 0.75%, while Shanghai zinc prices increased by 0.52%. Smelting processing fees decreased by 6.25% to ¥1,500 per ton, with mining profits rising to ¥10,004 per ton [51][51] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices fell by 1.26%, while Shanghai tin prices decreased by 0.26%. Conversely, London nickel prices rose by 5.82%, and Shanghai nickel prices increased by 9.33%. Nickel iron prices rose by 2.23%, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting profits of ¥5,955 per ton [64][64] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium spodumene rising by 13.05% to $1,490 per ton, and lithium carbonate increasing by 14.59% to ¥111,900 per ton. However, the smelting profit margins for lithium were negative [80][80] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices also increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.20% to $24.50 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices increasing by 5.45% to ¥445,000 per ton. The profit margins for domestic smelting plants rose significantly [93][93]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View The report focuses on whether overseas markets can re - enter the destocking cycle. Despite the closure of the export window due to overseas centralized delivery, the fundamentals remain bullish, with low zinc valuation and optimistic consumption expectations [4]. Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$33.43/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,990 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 23, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,030 yuan/ton and closed at 23,090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,845 lots, and the open interest was 93,107 lots. The highest price was 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,940 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 98,975 tons, down 275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Overseas inventory has slightly declined. Attention should be paid to whether actual consumption can support overseas markets to re - enter the destocking cycle after centralized delivery. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchase on demand, social inventory has stopped falling, and spot premiums are performing well. - The import window for zinc ore has opened, and domestic mine TC has stopped falling. After smelters' active winter storage, the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. - The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has widened, and maintenance in December has increased, reducing supply pressure. - The consumption end remains strong. Although the export window has closed, the fundamentals are still bullish, zinc valuation is low, and consumption expectations are optimistic [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From an annual perspective, the center of rubber prices is expected to rise slightly, but both upward and downward spaces are limited. Throughout the year, the supply - demand rhythm is mismatched, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [2][3]. - In the destocking cycle with decreasing supply and increasing demand, the market has a consistent long - term bullish sentiment. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio. The annual high can refer to seasonal highs, such as around September when weather disturbances are frequent and at the end of the year when automobile sales peak [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tianjiao (Natural Rubber) Trend Review 3.1.1 Review of Futures and Spot Price Trends - From the beginning of the year to March 3, rubber prices fluctuated. RU weighted closing price fell 0.23%, while NR rose 3.08%. The initial decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak downstream demand, and the subsequent rebound was caused by weather disturbances and increased tire enterprise stocking [5]. - From March 3 to May 30, rubber experienced three rounds of decline. RU fell 23.91%, and NR fell 23.98%. The decline was mainly due to factors such as increased supply, high tire inventory, trade conflicts, and anti - dumping investigations [6]. - From May 30 to September 8, rubber prices generally rose. RU rose 19.63%, and NR rose 11.48%. The rise was due to delayed supply increase, improved downstream demand, and macro - level positive factors [7]. - From September 8 to November 21, rubber prices fluctuated downward. RU fell 5.71%, and NR fell 5.80%. The decline was caused by increased negative factors on the demand side and expected supply increase [8]. 3.1.2 Review of Volatility Performance - By November 21, 2025, rubber experienced four high - volatility periods. The first was from January to mid - February, mainly due to supply - demand tightness and market sentiment. The second was in early April, caused by the US's unexpected tariff increase. The third was from late May to mid - June, affected by a series of events. The fourth was from late July to mid - August, dominated by macro factors [13][14][15]. 3.2 2026 Tianjiao Operation Logic: Finding Low - Buying Opportunities in the Destocking Cycle, with Annual Highs Possibly Referring to Seasonal Patterns 3.2.1 Supply Side - Thai rubber inventory is expected to remain low at the beginning of 2026. Due to weather factors and delayed order fulfillment, the low - inventory situation may persist until the second quarter of 2026. Three major Thai rubber processing companies plan to expand their production capacity by 620,000 tons in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of about 13.35% [19][20]. - Yunnan's concentrated latex processing plants are expanding, and the diversion of concentrated latex is becoming more common. In 2025 - 2026, Yunnan's Xishuangbanna plans to add 50,000 tons of concentrated latex processing capacity [21]. - In 2025, there was rainfall interference in major rubber - producing areas, but most areas saw an increase in production due to factors such as increased tapping willingness. Currently, raw material supply has certain elasticity, but in the context of aging rubber trees in Southeast Asia, prices need to remain high to maintain production [24][37][38]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The peak of China's tire industry's overseas capacity expansion is over. The first - round overseas layout was mainly in Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries, the second - round was closer to the core consumer markets in Europe and the United States, and the third - round may target emerging markets in Africa and South America. After 2026, the planned tire production is expected to decrease, and the impact on domestic tire exports is expected to weaken [43][45][51]. - The EU's anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on Chinese tires are the biggest risk for exports. If the anti - dumping measures are implemented, it will have a negative impact on China's tire exports in 2026, especially on passenger car tires. However, Chinese tire companies have experience in dealing with such situations and may take measures such as diversifying exports and re - exporting [55][63][64]. - Domestic tire demand is highly dependent on policies. In 2025, policies such as trade - in subsidies significantly boosted automobile sales, but the decline in subsidies may lead to a slowdown in demand. Although there are factors such as demand pre - release, the overall policy direction of boosting consumption remains unchanged, and domestic demand is expected to gradually stabilize [73][80][82]. 3.2.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - The absolute valuation of RU is at a relatively low position in the historical range, which may attract long - term downstream buyers [84]. - The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubber has been narrowing, but this trend may slow down in 2026. Dark - colored rubber may be affected by factors such as African tariff adjustments, potential inclusion in alternative delivery products, and EUDR delays. Light - colored rubber may be supported by factors such as reduced raw material imports from Laos and local concentrated latex expansion in Yunnan [88][89]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the upward and downward spaces of rubber prices are limited. The supply - demand rhythm is mismatched throughout the year, making it difficult to form a trend - based market. Instead, attention can be paid to volatility opportunities [94][96]. - In the first half of the year, raw material prices are difficult to decline, but demand is under pressure. In the second half of the year, supply will increase, and there will be more positive factors on the demand side [96]. - The investment outlook is to focus on band trading. At the beginning of the year, beware of the risk of EU anti - dumping measures and hold positions cautiously. Buying at low prices has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and the annual high can refer to seasonal highs [4][97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost - side crude oil is weak, while the fundamentals are marginally improving. The expectation of inventory reduction and supply contraction dominate short - term sentiment. LPG futures may run with a slight upward trend in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of import arrivals [2][3] 3. Summary of Key Information - **Supply and Inventory**: Supply pressure is marginally relieved. Enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the decrease in imported arrivals has increased the market's expectation of the start of the de - stocking cycle, which supports the sentiment of the futures market [2] - **Cost Factors**: Middle - East propane supply has tightened, and the Far - East arrival premium has stabilized, improving both the cost side and market sentiment. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks weakens the geopolitical risk premium, causing the decline of crude oil and dragging down the cost support of LPG [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream customers strongly resist high prices, with purchases mainly for essential needs. The incremental demand for winter combustion has not met expectations, suppressing the upward momentum of spot prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long - term trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1][5] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long - term trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] Core Views - The international oil price was basically flat. The S007 contract rose 1.18% intraday. Short - term factors support oil prices, but the medium - term supply - demand situation limits the rebound space [2] - Fuel - related futures closed higher. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread faces pressure to fall from high levels, while the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3] - When crude oil rebounded, asphalt's follow - up increase was insufficient and the crack spread declined. The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease, and the BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - The domestic CIF price of liquefied petroleum gas has fallen, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term. The futures market is mainly fluctuating weakly [4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - International oil prices were basically flat. Driven by the news that Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities, oil prices once rose. The S007 contract rose 1.18% intraday. Short - term factors such as the approaching peak oil - using season, refining demand after the refinery maintenance season, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran support oil prices, but the medium - term supply - demand situation limits the rebound space. Brent and SC still focus on the pressure levels of $70/barrel and 500 yuan/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - When crude oil rose, fuel - related futures closed higher. The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering is relatively strong. The Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel bunker price spread rose by $3.5/ton to $12/ton last week. However, due to the widening of the east - west price difference of low - sulfur fuel oil and the expansion of the delivery grade in China, the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread faces pressure to fall from high levels. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in marine fuel and deep - processing is relatively low, but the pre - peak power - generation stocking demand in the Middle East and North Africa offsets this, and the short - term sanction risk on Russia and Iran is strengthened. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3] Asphalt - When crude oil rebounded, asphalt's follow - up increase was insufficient and the crack spread declined. Some refineries reduced production or switched production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease next week. Last week, the asphalt shipment volume was 392,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons. As of May 19, the inventories of 54 sample refineries and 104 sample traders decreased by 10,000 tons and 44,000 tons respectively. The BU is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is expected that the destocking cycle will start in June, and a long - BU crack spread strategy can be considered after the BU crack spread回调 [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The domestic CIF price has fallen, and the pressure of concentrated arrivals in the first half of May still exists. The storage capacity utilization rate in East China continues to rise. The support of import costs has weakened, and refineries have increased their external sales, leading to a general decline in refinery gas prices. The PDH operating rate decreased last week, but some plants will start up at the end of the month. Although crude oil has rebounded, the spot price has room to decline in the short term, and the futures market is mainly fluctuating weakly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]