Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. The supply factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Demand**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. The demand factor is considered bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The inventory factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, log prices are below the delivery cost, with a low valuation. The valuation factor is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals of log spot prices continued to weaken, and spot prices dropped to the lowest level of the year. The outer - market quotes in December had a large span, with a median of $116. The shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. Overall, log futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Futures Position**: As of December 5th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,907 lots, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 15,277 lots, an 8.2% decrease from the previous week [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5th, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/750/850 yuan/m³ and 730/770/940 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/800 yuan/m³ and 730/760/840 yuan/m³ respectively [16]. Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [20]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs were directly shipped from New Zealand to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [26]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between $112 - $119/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about $111/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.986 million cubic meters, a 3.83% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 850,900 cubic meters, a 2.30% increase from the previous week. The radiation pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a 12.50% decrease from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory remained the same as the previous week [32]. - **Outbound Volume**: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 30,400 cubic meters, a 15.32% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 26,200 cubic meters, an 11.02% increase from the previous week [37]. - **Timber Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 5th, 2025, the timber square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the timber square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. - Log futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level, as the spot price fundamentals continue to weaken, the spot price has dropped to the lowest level of the year, the fourth - quarter shipment is expected to increase, and the median of the December foreign quotation is 116 US dollars [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%. The total arrival volume was about 217,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 201,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [4]. - **Demand**: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.71% [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log price is lower than the delivery cost, and the valuation is low [4]. - **Investment View**: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market, and the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for both single - side and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Price**: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The spot price fundamentals continued to weaken, and the spot price dropped to the lowest level of the year. The December foreign quotation had a large span, with a median of 116 US dollars. The fourth - quarter shipment was expected to increase. Overall, the log futures and spot prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Futures Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 24,241 lots, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 16,638 lots, a 5.4% decrease from the previous week [13]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/850 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/940 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine were 690/750/800 yuan/m³, and the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A were 730/770/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January - October 2025, China's total coniferous log imports from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **New Zealand Shipment**: In October 2025, about 54 New Zealand log ships left the port, an increase of 8 from the previous month. The total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 ships were sent to China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September [22]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quotation of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [26]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.03 million cubic meters, a 2.71% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 2,065,000 cubic meters, a 5.68% increase from the previous week. The total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 831,777 cubic meters, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [29]. - **Domestic Outbound Volume**: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 64,400 cubic meters, a 1.83% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a 2.18% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week [32]. - **Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1250 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The wooden square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, with no change from the previous week [35].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Research institution: ITC Futures Research Institute [4] - Analyst: Yang Lulin [4] - Date: October 17, 2025 [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - After the holiday, the fundamentals of logs weakened slightly. While port inventories increased slightly, the outbound volume decreased. However, considering the holiday factor, it is necessary to observe whether this phenomenon will continue. Log spot prices rose steadily, mainly driven by knot - free and laminated timber. After a sharp decline, the log futures price is below the delivery cost line, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Price - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the spot prices of different specifications of radiata pine range from 720 to 800 yuan for different lengths and grades (3.9m - 6m, small A - medium A) [5] Foreign Market Quotation - The price range of radiata pine (4m medium A) in the foreign market is 115 - 117 dollars per JAS cubic meter in October, up 2 dollars from 113 - 115 dollars in September [5] Futures Price - For contract LG2511, the current price is 797 yuan per cubic meter, up 4 yuan from the previous period. For contract LG2601, the current price is 823.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Square Price - The price of 4000*50*100 wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu is 1270 yuan, with no change from the previous period [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Information Supply - In August 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 130.6 million cubic meters, down from 145.8 million cubic meters in July. The import volume of North American logs was 10.1 million cubic meters, down from 10.6 million cubic meters in July. The import volume of European logs was 14.8 million cubic meters, down from 16.6 million cubic meters in July. From October 6 - 12, the shipment volume from New Zealand to China was 34 million JAS cubic meters, down from 35 million JAS cubic meters from September 22 - 28 [5] Inventory - On October 10, the total inventory was 299 million cubic meters, higher than 286 million cubic meters on September 26. Shandong's inventory was 189 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 88 million cubic meters [5] Demand - On October 10, the daily average outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, lower than 6.56 million cubic meters on September 26. Shandong's outbound volume was 3.44 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 1.79 million cubic meters [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Research Institute: ITC Futures Research Institute [4] - Author: Yang Lulin [4] - Date: October 15, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information Spot Prices - In Shandong, for Radiata Pine, 3.9m Medium A is priced at 760 yuan, 5.9m Medium A at 800 yuan, 3.9m Small A at 720 yuan, and 5.9m Small A at 760 yuan [5] - In Jiangsu, for Radiata Pine, 4m Medium A is priced at 770 yuan, 6m Medium A at 800 yuan, 4m Small A at 720 yuan, and 6m Small A at 750 yuan [5] Outer - market Quotes - The outer - market quote for 4m Medium A Radiata Pine is in the range of 115 - 117 dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a 2 - dollar increase from September's 113 - 115 dollars [5] Futures Prices - LG2511 contract price is 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 15.5 yuan from the previous period; LG2601 contract price is 820 yuan per cubic meter, down 3 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Product Prices - The price of 4000*50*100 wood squares in both Shandong and Jiangsu is 1270 yuan, with no change from the previous period [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Information Import Volume - In August 2025, New Zealand's log import volume was 130.6 million cubic meters, North American timber was 10.1 million cubic meters, and European timber was 14.8 million cubic meters; in July 2025, the corresponding figures were 145.8 million, 10.6 million, and 16.6 million cubic meters respectively [5] Shipment Volume - From September 22 - 28 to October 6 - 12, the shipment volume from New Zealand to China decreased from 35 million JAS cubic meters to 34 million JAS cubic meters [5] Inventory - On October 10, the total inventory was 299 million cubic meters; Shandong's inventory was 189 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 88 million cubic meters [5] Demand - On October 10, the daily average outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters; Shandong's outbound volume was 3.44 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 1.79 million cubic meters [5] Group 4: Core View - After the holiday, the log fundamentals weakened slightly, with a slight increase in port inventory and a decrease in outbound volume, but the sustainability of this phenomenon needs further observation [5] - Log spot prices increased steadily, mainly driven by knot - free timber and laminated timber [5] - After a sharp decline, the log futures price is below the delivery cost line, and further short - selling is not recommended [5]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent surge in lumber futures prices, with the primary contract reaching a peak of 776.5 yuan and closing at 768.5 yuan, reflecting a 2.40% increase. The outlook for lumber prices is expected to be volatile, with various institutions providing differing assessments on future trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Lumber futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract peaking at 776.5 yuan and closing at 768.5 yuan, marking a 2.40% rise [1]. - The average daily shipment of lumber from ports was 62,800 cubic meters, showing a slight increase of 700 cubic meters week-on-week [2]. - The current inventory at ports stands at 3.41 million cubic meters, with a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Century Futures predicts that lumber prices will remain volatile, with expectations of daily shipments stabilizing around 60,000 cubic meters due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2]. - New Lake Futures notes that the lumber market lacks significant contradictions in fundamentals, but domestic traders are facing losses due to price discrepancies between domestic and international markets [3]. - The overall market is expected to experience fluctuations, particularly as the delivery logic for July approaches, which may lead to increased market activity [3].