Group 1 - The UK, in coordination with the EU, has lowered the price cap on Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel, aiming to impact the Russian oil industry significantly [1] - This reduction in the price cap is expected to decrease the market value of Russian crude oil and severely affect a crucial source of funding for Russia [1] - The UK has also announced sanctions against three agencies affiliated with the Russian intelligence service and 18 intelligence personnel, citing their involvement in long-term cyberattack operations [1]

Group 1 - The European Union's 18th round of sanctions against Russia includes a reduction of the oil price cap to approximately $47.6 per barrel [1]

Core Insights - The price of Russian Urals crude oil is currently $2 per barrel below the $60 per barrel price cap set by Western countries due to weakening Brent crude oil prices [1] Group 1 - Brent crude oil prices have weakened, impacting the pricing of Russian Urals crude oil [1] - Russian Urals crude oil is trading at a discount compared to the price cap established by Western nations [1]

Core Insights - Russian Urals crude oil price has surpassed $60 per barrel for the first time since early April, driven by the strength of Brent crude oil [1] Group 1 - The increase in Urals crude oil price is attributed to the strengthening of Brent crude oil [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of Russian Urals crude oil has surpassed $60 per barrel for the first time since early April, driven by the strengthening of Brent crude oil prices [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the significance of the price movement in Russian Urals crude oil, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The increase in Urals crude oil prices may reflect broader trends in the global oil market influenced by Brent crude [1] - This price breakthrough could have implications for Russia's oil revenue and overall economic conditions [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is a strong and volatile trend, while the medium - term suggests a bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The recent strengthening of the WTI monthly spread and the increase in the premium of WTI Cushing over WTI Midland and WTI MEH indicate a tight fundamental situation in Cushing. This is mainly due to the reduction of Canadian light crude components flowing south to Cushing for blending, caused by wildfires and oil sands refinery maintenance. However, this only represents a local issue in the Midwest crude oil market. Usually, after the Canadian oil sands refinery maintenance ends in June, the situation will recover, and the current price difference will drive more Midland crude to flow to Cushing, suppressing the structural strengthening trend of Cushing [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 31 cents to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 17 cents to $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 0.25%. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.54% to 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the average prices of WTI crude oil in the next two years will be $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel respectively (previously $61.81 per barrel and $55.24 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil will be $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $65.85 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel). It is also predicted that the average daily output of US crude oil this year will be about 13.4 million barrels, and it will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year [1] - The EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel in a new round of sanctions and ban the use of energy infrastructure including the "Nord Stream" pipeline. In response, Russian President Putin extended the ban on oil sales to buyers who comply with the crude oil price cap [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years. OPEC expects that global energy demand will increase by 24% from now to 2050, and during this period, oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day [1] - In the week ending June 6 in the US, the API crude oil inventory was - 370,000 barrels (expected 100,000 barrels, previous value - 3.3 million barrels); the Cushing crude oil inventory was - 728,000 barrels (previous value 952,000 barrels); crude oil imports were - 117,000 barrels (previous value 141,000 barrels); gasoline inventory was 2.969 million barrels (expected 1.177 million barrels, previous value 4.7 million barrels); the volume of crude oil put into production was 152,000 barrels per day (previous value 316,000 barrels per day) [1] Strategy - Short - term: The oil price will be in a strong and volatile state. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight news that OPEC+ is considering another increase in production in July hit oil prices hard. Although the G7 is considering lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil, which partially boosted the market, the US has not supported the resolution. Geopolitically, a new round of US-Iran talks is expected to take place today, and the hope of reaching an agreement is slim due to the previous tense relations caused by Israel's planned attack. There is continuous geopolitical support below, and oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, waiting for more news. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel. OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, with a possible 411,000 barrels per day increase in July production, but no final agreement has been reached [3]. - **Basis**: On May 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.75 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.67 per barrel, with a basis of 19.16 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.449 million barrels. US EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.277 million barrels. Cushing region inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels for the week ending May 16, compared with a previous decrease of 1.069 million barrels. As of May 21, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of May 13, the main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil were long positions, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short-term oil prices are expected to oscillate at low levels, trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long-term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran warns that if Israel attacks its nuclear energy facilities, it will hold the US responsible, and any such attack will destroy Iran's efforts to restart relations with Washington. Iran and the US are preparing for the fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday [5]. - G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are discussing lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil exports to $50 per barrel, but the US has not supported the resolution [3][5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: No information provided - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and OPEC+ may increase production ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the resonance of damaged demand due to US policies and possible rapid production increases on the supply side. Risk points include the breakdown of unity within OPEC+ and the escalation of war risks. The US threatens to impose sanctions on Iran, and Venezuelan crude oil also faces sanctions risks. There are signs of a certain easing in the trade war [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by -0.72%, -0.60%, -1.22%, and -1.55% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by -1.01%, -0.60%, -3.69%, -2.94%, and -3.50% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 2.499 million barrels, and EIA inventories for the week ending May 16 increased by 1.328 million barrels [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 185,301, an increase of 9,873 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of May 13, the net long position was 151,144, an increase of 53,586 [19].