Core Viewpoint - The market remains volatile, influenced by geopolitical situations and trade tariffs, with gold and silver experiencing significant price increases recently. The bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuations and market dynamics [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has maintained a bullish trend, with a peak price of 4060 recently. The market experienced a three-day upward trend followed by a correction, but a strong close on Friday suggests potential for further gains early in the week [4][5]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3945 and 3900, with a strong bullish outlook as long as prices remain above these levels. A break above 4060 could lead to targets of 4100 and 4500 [5][6]. - Caution is advised against chasing high prices; instead, traders should look for opportunities to buy on dips, particularly around the support level of 4010 [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market has shown a strong bullish trend, with prices reaching a historical high of 51.5. The key support levels for silver are at 48.5 and 47.5, and as long as these levels hold, the outlook remains bullish [6][7]. - Traders are encouraged to wait for price corrections to enter long positions, particularly around the support level of 49.5 [6]. Domestic Fuel Market - The domestic fuel market has shown a bullish trend, with previous recommendations to buy at 2750 leading to significant gains. Current strategies suggest continuing to buy at 2750 with a target of 3000 [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend and poor trading opportunities, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The medium-term bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with expected price drops for Brent and SC crude. However, geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still intensify around the National Day holiday, so the strategy of combining high-level short positions with call options can be maintained [1]. - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will mainly follow the weakening cost side due to the unchanged medium-term bearish trend in crude oil. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure, while high-sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger and is susceptible to geopolitical news [2]. - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with the BU contract having support below due to factors such as increased pre-holiday demand in the north, expected production increases, and inventory declines [2]. - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with marginal improvements in supply and demand and expected better import costs [3]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC11 contract rising 1.94% during the day. Iraqi Kurdish oil exports remain suspended, and there are discussions about a possible Russian diesel export ban. Negotiations between three European countries and Iran to avoid UN sanctions on September 27 have no clear progress [1]. - The medium-term bearish trend continues, with the expected average price of Brent crude dropping from $68 per barrel in Q3 to $63 per barrel, and the SC average price falling from 500 yuan per barrel to around 465 yuan per barrel [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors affect supply expectations, causing a rebound in crude oil-related products. However, the unilateral trend of fuel oil will follow the weakening cost side [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces low加注 demand, increased domestic quotas, and overseas refinery RFCC accidents, intensifying supply pressure. High-sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, but Russian refinery attacks may support supply expectations and make it relatively stronger [2]. Asphalt - The latest weekly shipment volume increased significantly compared to the previous period. The north has pre-holiday construction demand, while the south is affected by typhoon weather. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [2]. - The initial production plans of refineries in October show a significant year-on-year increase but limited month-on-month growth. Factory inventories remain stable, and social inventories decreased by 57,000 tons, with the overall inventory level decreasing [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Crude oil rebounded, and LPG fluctuated. Refinery self-use of LPG increased, squeezing external supply, leading to a decline in commercial volume compared to last week [3]. - Typhoon weather in the South China region affects imports, while the import volume in East China increased but remains at a low level. Combustion demand is stable, and overall consumption increased slightly [3].

Core Viewpoint - The market's risk aversion has quickly receded, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, with domestic SC crude oil futures hitting the limit down at a 9% decline, currently priced at 518.6 yuan per barrel [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A senior Iranian official confirmed that Iran agreed to a ceasefire proposal related to the conflict with Israel after a conversation with the Qatari Prime Minister, although the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that no formal agreement has been reached [1]. - The current round of Israel-Iran conflict shows signs of easing without causing disruptions to oil supply, which may lead to a bearish trend in oil prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic and supply-demand support for the recent oil price increase is weak, with geopolitical risks in the Middle East being the primary factor for the price premium [1]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss potential production increases in early July, which may put pressure on oil prices in the near term [2]. - Factors such as low inventory levels, seasonal demand peaks, and declining shale oil supply may limit the speed of oil price declines, suggesting a shift from an upward trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation before a potential downward trend [1][2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The oil trading sector is facing mid-term layout opportunities, with geopolitical disturbances potentially having pulse-like impacts, necessitating risk control in trading [2]. - In scenarios where geopolitical factors have limited escalation, a supply-demand perspective may favor short-selling at higher price points [2].