| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 7 | | | 四、库存与估值 | 9 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 "天气与地缘"双双驱动油价上行 【行情回顾】 2026 年 1 月，国际原油期货上演了"天气与地缘"双驱动的震荡上行行 情。受到地缘政治紧张及欧美寒潮天气影响，油价逆势走强，整体呈现偏强震 荡格局。截至 1 月下旬，两大基准油价较 2025 年末显著上涨 10 美元/桶。 其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 1 月 29 日收于 65.51 美元/桶，当月累计上 涨约 14.1%；英国布伦特原油期货收于 69.71 美元/桶，涨幅更是达到 14.5%。 地缘政治风险是本月核心支撑，市场对主要产油 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the chemical sector started in the afternoon. Plastics and PP were boosted to rise. However, considering the supply recovery, the entry of demand into the off - season inventory digestion cycle, and the unchanged oversupply pattern of crude oil due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, the rebound of polyolefins should be treated bearishly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The market had a bullish atmosphere, and the chemical sector rose in the afternoon, driving plastics and PP up. L2605 opened lower, fluctuated higher during the session, and closed up at 6,579 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.31%), with a trading volume of 458,000 lots and a decrease of 1,038 lots in positions to 507,885 lots. PP2605 closed at 6,423 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan, a gain of 1.09%, and the positions increased by 13,100 lots to 521,600 lots. The supply pressure increased month - on - month due to the decline in maintenance losses during the new capacity window period, and the demand was weak due to the seasonal off - season [6]. 2. Industry News - On January 6, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year. - PE market prices partially declined. LLDPE prices in North China were 6,300 - 6,500 yuan/ton, in East China were 6,380 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6,500 - 6,800 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,730 - 5,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene was fair, and the production enterprises had smooth shipments. - The PP market rose slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,080 - 6,200 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,140 - 6,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East was reversed. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, causing Brent crude to fall to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released, with OPEC confirming a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and a market expectation of a further increase in December. Global floating crude oil storage increased significantly. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits declined with the fall in diesel cracking. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and the impact on refinery raw material supply, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. Overall, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 26 to October 10, WTI decreased by $2.61, BRENT by $2.49, and DUBAI by $1.68. SC decreased by 9.10, and OMAN by $2.75. Domestic gasoline increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel decreased by 35.00. Japanese naphtha decreased by 7.50, and Singapore fuel oil 380CST had a slight change. HH natural gas increased by 0.130, and BFO decreased by $1.33 [3] 2. Daily News - The UK media reported that the US has been assisting Ukraine in attacking Russian energy facilities, with no responses from the US, Russia, or Ukraine. The Iranian foreign minister doubts the US's ability to fulfill its commitments. A Hamas official said the group is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. There is a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. The US Treasury Secretary said India will adjust its energy structure towards US oil, and the US Treasury has sanctioned over 50 entities related to Iranian oil [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of October 3, US crude exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day, domestic production increased by 124,000 barrels per day, commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels (0.89% increase), and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 285,000 barrels (0.07% increase). The four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.68% year - on - year. From September 12 - 18, the main refinery operating rate fluctuated slightly, and the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventory both increased [4] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - Oil prices dropped this week due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and a worsening macro - environment. Crude oil supply is increasing, and global floating storage has risen. The EIA reported a commercial crude inventory build in the US. Global refinery profits are falling. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. The sanctions on Iran may affect refinery raw material supply, and the fourth - quarter refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. There will be an oversupply in the fourth quarter and 2026, and the fourth - quarter price center is expected to decline [5]