Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.19%. Currently, rebar supply is contracting, but the positive effect is weak under high inventory. Demand remains weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices are prone to downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a fluctuating manner, with a daily increase of 0.37%. During the holiday, the production of plate mills was stable, the supply pressure was high, demand was weak, the fundamentals were weak, inventory increased significantly, and prices continued to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 0.96%. During the holiday, the overseas commodity market atmosphere was warm, supporting the ore price. However, ore supply returned to a high level, and demand was expected to weaken. The contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals were accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price was expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The WTO significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the 1.8% forecast in August. The growth rate of global service exports is expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.4% in 2026. Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties spreading to more economies and industries pose major downward risks [6]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. The heavy - truck market has achieved six consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to September [7]. - From January to September 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network announced more than 120 anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings against Chinese steel products by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties include carbon steel alloy wire rods, steel fences, large - diameter welded pipes, etc. [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,210 yuan, and the national average price is 3,258 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin are 3,350 yuan and 3,290 yuan respectively, and the national average price is 3,398 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,060 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 802 yuan. The sea freight from Australia is 10.34 yuan, and from Brazil is 25.46 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.29 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 103.90 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,096 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume is 823,683 lots, a decrease of 136,145 lots, and the open interest is 1,908,129 lots, an increase of 34,297 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,286 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume is 369,788 lots, a decrease of 141,323 lots, and the open interest is 1,374,586 lots, an increase of 24,718 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 790.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.96%. The trading volume is 240,766 lots, an increase of 45,587 lots, and the open interest is 459,565 lots, an increase of 12,200 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production conditions (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][20][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: During the holiday, the spot price of construction steel was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to improve marginally. The production of construction steel mills was stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly. Considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term production increase momentum is weak, and the supply will run stably at a low level. However, the inventory increase pressure during the holiday is large, and the positive effect is weak. The pre - holiday demand improved due to downstream restocking, but both supply and demand are at low levels in recent years, and the improvement space of peak - season demand is expected to be insufficient. The steel price is prone to downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [35]. - Hot - rolled coil: During the holiday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was stable. The pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil weakened, inventory continued to increase, the production of plate mills was weakly stable, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was at a high level, and the inventory was relatively high. There was also off - balance - sheet production transfer, resulting in high supply pressure. The demand for hot - rolled coil began to weaken, and high - frequency indicators continued to decline. Although the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products returned to a high level, due to the accumulated industrial contradictions, it was still likely to drag down the demand for hot - rolled coil. Coupled with limited improvement in external demand, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. The price will continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand performance [35]. - Iron ore: During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swap fluctuated higher, and the spot price increased. However, the pre - holiday supply - demand pattern of iron ore weakened. The production of steel mills was stable, the terminal consumption of ore remained at a high level, and the demand performance was acceptable, supporting the ore price. However, the positive effect of restocking was weakening, and the contradictions in the steel market were accumulating. The post - holiday demand may weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports returned to a high level, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered. The iron ore supply returned to a high level. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [36].

Group 1: Measures Against U.S. Companies - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added three companies to the unreliable entity list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China and from making new investments in China [1] - Three U.S. entities have been placed on the export control list, prohibiting the export of dual-use items to these companies, and all ongoing related export activities must cease immediately [1] Group 2: Trade Relief and Barrier Investigations - A preliminary anti-dumping investigation has been initiated against imported pecans from Mexico and the U.S., as evidence suggests dumping practices that harm domestic prices and cause substantial damage [2] - A trade barrier investigation has been launched regarding Mexico's proposed increase in import tariffs on products from non-free trade partners, which could severely impact Chinese enterprises' trade and investment interests [2] Group 3: Clarification of Multilateral and Bilateral Trade Positions - China has submitted a position paper to the WTO stating it does not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future negotiations, aiming to promote WTO reform and support global development initiatives [3] - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to eliminate unreasonable tariffs on soybean trade to create favorable conditions for expanding bilateral trade and enhancing global economic stability [3] - The Chinese government has indicated that the main obstacle to normal Sino-U.S. economic cooperation is unilateral restrictions imposed by the U.S., calling for mutual efforts to create favorable conditions for stable and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against the United States regarding measures taken in the integrated circuit sector, citing potential discriminatory practices under Chinese trade law [1][2]. Investigation Details - The investigation targets U.S. measures related to integrated circuits, including tariffs imposed since 2018 and restrictions on exports of semiconductor products and manufacturing equipment to China [1][2]. - Specific measures under scrutiny include rules limiting U.S. participation in Chinese semiconductor projects and restrictions on the use of advanced Chinese computing chips [2]. - The investigation will utilize various methods such as written questionnaires, hearings, and on-site investigations to gather evidence [3]. Investigation Timeline - The investigation commenced on September 13, 2025, with a standard duration of three months, subject to extension under special circumstances [5]. Public Participation - Stakeholders can access public information related to the investigation through the Ministry of Commerce's website and submit written comments within 30 days of the announcement [6][7]. - Requests for hearings can be submitted within 20 days of the announcement [8]. Government Consultation - The U.S. government has the option to request intergovernmental consultations with China within 30 days of the announcement to address the impacts of the investigated measures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against the United States regarding measures taken in the integrated circuit sector, citing potential discriminatory practices under Chinese trade law [1][2]. Investigation Details - The investigation targets U.S. measures related to integrated circuits, including tariffs imposed since 2018 and restrictions on exports of semiconductor products and manufacturing equipment to China [1][2]. - Specific measures under scrutiny include rules limiting U.S. participation in Chinese semiconductor projects and restrictions on advanced computing integrated circuits from China [2]. - The investigation will utilize various methods such as written questionnaires, hearings, and on-site investigations to gather evidence [3]. Investigation Timeline - The investigation commenced on September 13, 2025, with a typical duration of three months, extendable under special circumstances [5]. Public Participation - Stakeholders can access public information regarding the investigation through the Ministry of Commerce's website and are encouraged to submit written comments within 30 days of the announcement [6][7]. - Requests for hearings can be submitted within 20 days of the announcement [8]. Government Consultation - The U.S. government has the option to request intergovernmental consultations with China within 30 days to address the impacts of the investigated measures [9].

Core Viewpoint - Canada has decided to eliminate retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. imports, impacting approximately $21 billion in U.S. exports to Canada, including various consumer goods and appliances [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Canada will maintain tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily, indicating a strong stance in these critical sectors [4]. - The decision to adjust negotiation strategies comes amid pressure from domestic, regional, and international factors, including the urgency created by other G7 members reaching trade agreements with the U.S. [7]. - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a reported GDP decline of 0.4% in Q2, following a 0.5% growth in Q1, and significant drops in exports of vehicles and machinery due to U.S. tariffs [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trade Frictions - Ongoing discussions focus on five strategic areas: steel, aluminum, automobiles, copper, and softwood lumber, with existing tariffs on non-compliant imports from Canada [11]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper and increased anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood, raising the total tariff rate to 35.19% [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding negotiations has led to a decrease in foreign investment in Canada, with expectations that the U.S. may push for higher localization ratios and wage alignment in future talks [12].

Group 1 - The UK steel industry is threatening legal action against the government's decision to impose tariffs on raw steel imports from Asia, citing concerns over the impact on domestic manufacturers [1][3] - The UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds announced a reduction in the tariff-free import quota for raw steel from Vietnam and South Korea, claiming it aims to protect local steel producers from cheap imports [1][2] - The sudden decision led to significant logistical issues, with thousands of tons of raw steel stuck at UK ports due to a 25% tariff on goods that had already been paid for, causing financial strain and supply chain instability for manufacturers [2][3] Group 2 - The Confederation of British Metalforming (CBM) represents a large number of manufacturers affected by the government's decision, highlighting challenges such as rising costs and delivery delays [2][3] - Some manufacturers are uniting to support a judicial review of the government's decision, arguing that it did not follow the Trade Remedies Authority's (TRA) recommendations, which suggested a 40% cap on tariff-free imports [3] - The UK steel industry is facing long-term challenges, including declining demand due to reduced automotive production and a slowdown in the commercial construction sector, exacerbated by increased global competition [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for China and the EU to work together to prepare for important economic and trade agendas, promoting a healthy and stable development of their economic relationship [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has maintained close communication with the EU at all levels, focusing on enhancing bilateral trade and investment cooperation, and addressing trade disputes through dialogue [3][4] - China is committed to high-level openness and aims to provide European companies with a broad market and development opportunities, while opposing any actions that undermine China's development rights [5][6] Group 2 - The EU has been implementing various industrial policies and providing substantial subsidies to support European companies, with over €1.44 trillion in subsidies planned from 2021 to 2030, and more than €300 billion already disbursed by 2024 [4][6] - The Chinese government criticizes the EU's protectionist measures, which it views as a double standard, and calls for a fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises [6][7] - The EU's recent decision to restrict Chinese companies from participating in public procurement projects over €5 million has raised concerns about fairness and the impact on long-standing cooperation in the medical sector [7][8]