Group 1 - The article discusses the misguided belief among some developing countries, including India, that they can replicate China's development model to become global powers, which often leads to disappointment due to their relatively weaker capabilities [1] - India announced retaliatory tariffs against the US on July 4, 2023, in response to a 25% increase in tariffs on various Indian goods by the US, significantly impacting India's exports [1][5] - The trade dynamics between India and the US show a significant imbalance, with India's exports to the US projected at $874 billion and imports at $418 billion for 2024, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $400 billion for India [1] Group 2 - India's exports to the US primarily consist of generic drugs, petroleum products, solar panels, telecom equipment, garments, and precious stones, which account for about 40% of total exports, while the US exports high-end products like weapons, chips, and machinery to India [3] - Indian officials often exhibit a sense of entitlement, believing they are a central player on the world stage, which leads to a dismissive attitude towards US pressure [3] - The ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US have faced significant challenges, leading to a perception that India's responses are more bluster than substance, particularly in the context of domestic crises [5][6] Group 3 - Modi's government is under pressure to respond to the US with equivalent countermeasures, even if they are merely symbolic, indicating India's willingness to stand up to the US alongside China [8] - The friction between the US and India presents opportunities for China, allowing it to observe and prepare for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape [8] - The article suggests that if the US continues its current approach, it may inadvertently push India and other countries closer to China, potentially altering the balance of power in the region [8]

肖耿认为，理解关税战不能只看贸易顺差/逆差，这些贸易不平衡是中美两国不同发展模式呈现的结果。 他解释称，美国实行的是强美元、强宏观经济刺激政策、高资本市场回报率的"强势经济金融政策"，其低储蓄及过度消费，特别是军费支出，最终导致长期 贸易赤字（逆差），同时美元作为世界储备货币帮助了美国政府的过度借贷；中国直到2024年9月，实行的是弱人民币、弱宏观经济刺激政策、低资本市场 回报率的"弱势(或过度谨慎)宏观经济金融政策"，实际上维持了中国的高储蓄、低消费，最终反应出来就是长期贸易盈余（顺差）。 肖耿进一步表示，特朗普政府此前的"离谱关税"，本质是希望通过对外收取关税、对内降低税收来应对美国国内的经济结构性矛盾，对美国而言是有其必要 性的。"不是因为中国不好，而是因为中国做得太好了，我们国家的生产能力在不断上升，这是美国不希望看到的，因为他（美国）想要保持最领先（的地 位）。"他说。 经济观察报记者 张锐 中美经贸高层会谈日前在瑞士日内瓦举行，双方在关税政策方面取得实质性进展。 5月15日，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院副院长肖耿接受经济观察报记者采访表示，关税战背后是中美多维度竞争与再平衡，这些竞争与再平衡不 ...