证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 医药供给端变量增加 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年03月01日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1.供给端变量增加，提价范围进一步扩大 受反内卷、两用物项管理、反倾销等一系列政策影响，医药供给端变量增加，促进价格周期的转变。首先原料药产业供给 端变化最为敏感，青霉素产业链已开始价格的反弹。2026年1月末，印度商工部外贸总局（DGFT）发布对青霉素工业盐、 6-APA和阿莫西林的进口限价，其中6-APA限价为3405 印度卢比/公斤，截止日期至 2027-01-28。按照印度的限价标准，6- APA折合人民币约260元/kg，高于目前出口报价，国内企业已开始逐步提高报价。2月25日起星湖伊品计划对赖氨酸、苏氨 酸及小品种氨基酸上调50-300元/吨，同日，象屿生化苏氨酸报价上调300元/吨。从产能供给来看，包括赖氨酸、苏氨酸和 蛋氨酸在内的饲用氨基酸添加剂供给都过剩，但2025年下半年以来价格普遍处于低位，行业开工率普遍不足，产量的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The supply of raw materials in the pharmaceutical industry is accelerating, with a focus on subsequent price and volume changes [2] - The global GLP-1 market is evolving, with Chinese companies continuing to explore international opportunities [3] - Leading companies are gradually entering the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to drive the development of supporting industrial chains [4] - The retail pharmaceutical market is showing positive trends, with chain pharmacies enhancing their positioning [5] - The value of oral immunosuppressive drugs is gaining attention [6] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points in the last week, ranking 15th among 31 primary industry indices [18] - The pharmaceutical industry index increased by 0.14% during the same period [18] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index has a current PE (TTM) of 37.31, above the five-year historical average of 31.11 [40] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of biological agents and oral medications, and the impact of policies on the inhalation drug industry [44] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a notice to accelerate the cultivation and application of new scenarios in the medical insurance sector [46] - Recent approvals for clinical trials of new drugs by major pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca and Hengrui Medicine, indicate ongoing innovation in the industry [47][48] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for several companies, with recommendations for stocks such as Yuyuan Pharmaceutical and Sunshine Nuohua, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) exports are expected to remain relatively stable in total volume by 2025, despite trade changes and price competition, reflecting the industry's competitiveness [1] - In 2026, uncertainties in API trade will persist, with further competition and cooperation between China and India [1] - New technologies, such as synthetic biology, are driving down unit costs and enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese companies in terms of quality and service efficiency [1] Group 2 - Some API prices have already bottomed out, and the trend of supply clearing is expected to continue, potentially leading to a price rebound due to changes in the competitive landscape and capacity utilization rates [1] - China's innovative pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to see a strong start in 2026, with several significant licensing deals validating technological capabilities [1] - The clinical data in the small nucleic acid drug field continues to validate its potential, accelerating market progress and attracting more leading companies to invest, which may drive the development of the supporting industrial chain [1] Group 3 - In the GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) sector, a new pricing system is forming domestically, with rapid growth in overseas oral formulations [1] - Oral autoimmune drugs are also showing significant value [1] - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) tracks the Innovation Drug Index (950161), which focuses on new drug development driven by technological innovation, reflecting the overall trend of innovation in China's pharmaceutical industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with significant market potential anticipated for weight loss and diabetes treatments [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the potential of GLP-1 drugs [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector and the approval of numerous medical devices by the National Medical Products Administration [46][48]

Core Insights - 2025 is a landmark year for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with total BD (business development) outbound licensing transaction value reaching $135.655 billion and transaction count hitting 157, both setting historical highs [1] - The continuous execution of BD transactions in 2026 validates the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, with innovation remaining the main investment theme in the pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The small nucleic acid drug sector is attracting more attention from leading companies due to advancements in new target development and treatment convenience, alongside continuously validated clinical data, accelerating outbound licensing and merger collaborations [1] - In the GLP-1 sector, a new pricing system is forming in the domestic market, but the long-term market potential remains promising due to the large patient population for weight loss and diabetes [1] - The development of oral autoimmune drugs is gaining focus, with domestic companies exploring related new targets [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (589720) tracks the Innovation Drug Index (950161), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, selecting listed companies focused on new drug research and development in the biotech and chemical pharmaceutical sectors to reflect the overall trend and market performance of China's pharmaceutical industry innovation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 19, 2026 [1] Core Insights - 2025 marked a significant year for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with a total transaction amount of $135.655 billion, including $7 billion in upfront payments and 157 deals, setting historical highs. The trend continues into 2026, with notable licensing agreements from companies like Yilian Biotech and Rongchang Biotech, indicating strong global competitiveness for Chinese innovative drugs [2] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, with significant acquisitions and clinical approvals. For instance, China National Pharmaceutical Group acquired Hangzhou Hejiya Biopharmaceutical for 1.2 billion RMB, while international firms like Novartis and GSK are also advancing in this area [3] - The GLP-1 market is expected to grow despite new pricing systems, with ongoing collaborations and new product launches anticipated in 2026. The market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to remain robust due to the large patient population for weight loss and diabetes [4] - The oral autoimmune drug market is gaining attention, with promising results from Takeda's new TYK2 inhibitor for psoriasis. Other domestic companies are also advancing in this space, exploring new targets for oral small molecules [5] - The brain-computer interface sector is poised for industrialization, with companies like Neuralink set to produce devices in 2026. Domestic advancements and regulatory support are enhancing the potential for this technology in medical applications [6] - The ZAP-X radiation therapy device is expected to capture a significant market share in China, with rapid growth projected in non-invasive tumor radiation treatment, driven by increasing clinical recognition and adoption [8] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a resurgence in interest towards innovative drugs, with a notable increase in the innovative drug index by 8.97% since early January 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.77 percentage points [2] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Yuekang Pharmaceutical** and **Sunshine Nuohua** in the small nucleic acid space - **Yahong Pharmaceutical** and **Yifang Biotechnology** in the autoimmune sector - **Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical** in the GLP-1 market - **Baiyang Pharmaceutical** for ZAP-X radiation therapy - **Meihao Medical** for brain-computer interface technology [10] Market Opportunities - The non-invasive tumor radiation treatment market is projected to grow from 27.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 59.4 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% [8]

Group 1 - The vaccine ETF (159643) rose over 1.1%, indicating a strengthening of its technological attributes, which may become a new driving force in the pharmaceutical sector [1] - 2025 is projected to be a landmark year for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with total outbound licensing transaction amounts reaching $135.655 billion, including upfront payments of $7 billion and a record 157 transactions [1] - The innovative drug sector is expected to create a new valuation anchor, with an anticipated index increase of 35.31% in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Breakthroughs in small nucleic acid drugs have been achieved, with GSK's Bepirovirsen completing Phase III studies for chronic hepatitis B, potentially becoming the first functional cure [1] - Domestic companies such as Yuyuan Pharmaceutical and Reborn Biotech have made progress in liver-targeted and thrombosis treatment areas [1] - The development of oral immunomodulatory drugs is accelerating, with Takeda's TYK2 inhibitor zasocitinib showing superior results in Phase III studies for psoriasis compared to placebo [1] Group 3 - Brain-computer interface technology is entering the industrialization phase, with Neuralink's devices set for mass production and increased domestic policy support [1] - The ZAP-X radiation therapy device presents breakthroughs in brain tumor treatment, revealing a potential market worth billions in China [1] - The commercialization of AI in healthcare is advancing, with pathology fee reforms incorporating AI-assisted diagnostics into pricing structures [1]