智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，虽然24年Q2开始，行业内卷的扩散对动保企业造成了不小 的冲击，但从供给角度看，持续恶化的内卷局面，客观上已经造成一批企业在出清的路上，25年以来该 行看到兽药原料药价格的企稳回升，其中大环内酯类产品甚至迎来了比较大幅的价格和盈利修复，也看 到多数疫苗品种批签发的同比改善。在此过程中，企业业绩也呈现出明显的分化，但表现好的企业都具 备同一个特质即创新，无论是产品的创新、营销手段的创新还是资本运作的创新，最后在利润表上都有 直观的呈现，值得给予持续重点关注。 华创证券主要观点如下： 疫苗批签发：25年多数疫苗品种批签发均同比增长，新型疫苗表现更胜一筹 根据中国兽药基础数据库，从1-12月全年累计批签发数据来看，多数疫苗品种均同比增长，具体来看， 其中猪用疫苗方面，口蹄疫疫苗、圆环疫苗、伪狂犬疫苗、猪瘟疫苗、胃腹二联疫苗、猪乙脑疫苗分别 同比+6.4%、+13.0%、+5.1%、+11.7%、+21.3%、+7.9%，仅蓝耳疫苗、猪细小疫苗分别同 比-3.7%、-4.5%;禽用疫苗方面，禽流感三价苗、新城疫疫苗、鸭传染性浆膜炎疫苗分别同比+22.8%、 +8.8%、+17. ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 重视供给端的变量 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年01月26日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1.重视供给端的变量，关注原料药开工率 根据亚太易和监测的高频兽药原料药报价数据，2026第3周阿莫西林市场价格166元，环比涨幅0.5%，阿莫西林钠和青霉素 钾工业盐价格环比持平。受国内需求不足和潜在产能进入的压力，以6-APA代表的青霉素产业链自2025年Q1开始快速下跌， 目前价格已处于近5年（2019-2026）以来的低位。低价竞争挤压了产业的利润空间，2025Q3单季度川宁生物和国药现代 其扣非净利润分别同比下降51.01%和58.01%，但低价也有效的制约了新产能的释放和新的潜在进入者。除了青霉素产业 链之外，氟苯尼考等兽药价格也处于近年来的最低位，市场价格在170元，2023~2025年1月份，氟苯尼考价格为450元、 217元和193元。展望2026年，来自医用和兽用抗生素需求将基本稳定，供给端出于竞争格局和竞争关系的转变， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with expectations for market growth driven by a large patient population [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the impact of policies on inhalation formulations [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the approval of numerous medical device registrations and the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector [46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by small and medium-sized pharmacies in the current market, emphasizing the importance of digital tools for procurement and inventory management to enhance profitability and efficiency. Group 1: Challenges in the Pharmacy Industry - Many small pharmacy owners are struggling with rising costs such as rent and labor, leading to compressed profit margins [1] - The industry is experiencing a phenomenon known as "killing the familiar," where long-term relationships with suppliers may lead to overpaying due to a lack of price comparison [3] - On average, small pharmacies incur hidden losses of 50,000 to 80,000 yuan annually due to improper procurement practices [3] Group 2: Digital Tools and Their Benefits - Successful pharmacies are utilizing digital tools like the "Drug Procurement Browser," which aggregates data from multiple B2B platforms to find the best prices [5][6] - This tool allows pharmacy owners to have a "God's perspective," enabling them to negotiate better prices and make informed purchasing decisions [7] - Implementing data-driven decision-making can significantly improve inventory turnover rates, with reported increases of over 30% [9] Group 3: Future of the Pharmacy Industry - The industry is anticipating a major shift by 2026, with stricter regulations and market consolidation, making digitalization essential for survival [10] - Efficiency will become a key competitive factor, and traditional methods like phone calls and Excel spreadsheets will not suffice [10] - Pharmacy owners are encouraged to adopt digital tools as price comparison aids to avoid overpaying due to information asymmetry [11][12]

Group 1 - The article highlights the issue of misleading health information propagated by self-media influencers, who present unverified remedies as effective solutions for various health conditions [1] - It emphasizes that these influencers often misuse medical products, such as suggesting the use of iodine for mouth rinsing and amoxicillin in shampoos, which can lead to health risks [1] - Experts stress that genuine scientific communication should be based on credible sources and should avoid exaggerating effects, contrasting with the sensational claims made by these influencers [1]

Core Viewpoint - A serious incident involving a 9-month-old baby in Yongkang, Zhejiang, where the child was found to have traces of the sedative Zolpidem in their system, allegedly administered by a nanny [1] Group 1: Incident Details - The mother, Ms. Xu, reported that her baby became unusually drowsy and had a reduced milk intake after hiring a nanny for 26 days at a cost of 7,600 yuan [1] - Medical tests revealed the presence of Zolpidem, a controlled substance used for short-term treatment of severe insomnia [1] - The nanny has been taken into police custody for investigation, while she denies any wrongdoing, claiming she is "innocent" [1] Group 2: Company Response - The management of the agency that provided the nanny stated they are unaware of the specific circumstances and are awaiting the results of the police investigation [1] - The nanny reportedly informed the agency that the baby was on medication due to illness, which the mother refuted, stating the baby was only taking a small dose of Amoxicillin for a urinary tract condition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Health Commission emphasizes the importance of appropriate medication for common colds, advocating for symptom-targeted and safe drug use [3][4]. Group 1: Medication Guidelines - For common colds, medications should focus on symptom relief, primarily using decongestants like pseudoephedrine and antihistamines like chlorpheniramine [3][4]. - If fever exceeds 38.5°C or if there are significant body aches, additional medications such as acetaminophen or ibuprofen can be used, but care should be taken to avoid overlapping ingredients in combination medications [4][5]. Group 2: Antibiotic and Antiviral Use - Antibiotics are ineffective against colds, which are typically caused by viruses, and should only be prescribed for confirmed bacterial infections [4][5]. - Antiviral medications should not be misused; they are generally only prescribed within 48 hours of a confirmed flu diagnosis [5]. Group 3: Special Population Considerations - Elderly patients should be cautious with medications containing pseudoephedrine due to potential impacts on blood pressure and heart conditions [5]. - Pediatric medications should be specifically formulated for children rather than simply reducing adult dosages [5]. - Pregnant women are advised to consult healthcare professionals before taking any medications to avoid unnecessary risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation and challenges faced by Guoyao Modern, a major pharmaceutical company under the China National Pharmaceutical Group, highlighting its financial performance and strategic shifts in response to industry changes [3][5][36]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guoyao Modern achieved a revenue of 10.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.4%, but its net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.04 billion, marking a historical high [19]. - The company's net profit margin reached 9.9% in 2024, continuing to rise since 2021, despite a decline in gross margin [17]. - By the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, with net profit dropping by over 45% [26]. Group 2: Cost Management - Guoyao Modern has significantly reduced its sales expenses from 30% in 2019 to 10% in 2024, and further to 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to profit growth despite declining revenues [21][24]. - The company has maintained a stable R&D expense ratio around 5%, indicating a focus on innovation while managing costs [24]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Guoyao Modern is a key player in the antibiotic sector, holding approximately 19% market share in key intermediates, ranking second in the industry [8]. - The company faces challenges from price declines in raw materials and the impact of centralized procurement, leading to a significant drop in revenue from its antibiotic products [27]. - The overall market for raw materials and intermediates has been affected by oversupply, impacting core products like amoxicillin and 6-APA [27]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - Guoyao Modern is undergoing a transformation from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a focus on high-end formulations and biopharmaceuticals [5][36]. - The company holds nearly 9 billion in cash reserves, representing 46.6% of total assets, providing a strong financial foundation for future investments [29]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 37% in 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [34].

Core Insights - China plays a crucial role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, with significant reliance from the US and other countries on Chinese production of pharmaceutical raw materials [1][2] - The US's dependency on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) has increased dramatically, with China accounting for 45% of drug master files submitted to the FDA, surpassing India's 19% [1] - A significant portion of active ingredients used in US medications comes from a single source, with China being the exclusive supplier for at least one chemical in nearly 700 critical drugs [2] Group 1 - China has developed a large and commercialized pharmaceutical industry since the 1950s, becoming a key producer of key starting materials (KSMs) used in APIs [1] - The US's reliance on China for pharmaceutical ingredients is underscored by the fact that half of the active ingredients used in the US come from a single source [2] - The trend of dependency on a single supplier raises concerns, especially for a competitive nation like the US, although China has not threatened to halt medical product exports during trade tensions [2] Group 2 - The US government aims to establish a supply chain involving India and other allies to reduce dependency on China, but this is seen as a nearly impossible task due to low profit margins in the production of pharmaceutical raw materials [2] - A US corporate executive noted that replicating the raw material supply chain would increase costs by 50%, indicating the challenges faced by US companies in this endeavor [2] - China's dominance in many critical sectors, including pharmaceuticals, highlights the complexities of global supply chains and the difficulties in achieving "decoupling" from China [2]

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]