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Group 1: Market Overview - The resurgence of risk aversion in global markets has supported the US dollar, leading to a significant pullback in the EUR/USD pair, which fell to the 1.1600 area, marking a four-day low [1][7] - The EUR/USD is expected to remain within the range of 1.1400-1.1800, with a clear catalyst needed for a breakout, such as new signals from the Federal Reserve or a shift in trade dynamics [6][11] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD maintains an upward momentum but is still fluctuating within a range, with resistance levels at the August high of 1.1742 and potential targets at 1.1788 and 1.1830 [3][4] - The mid-term support for EUR/USD is identified at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1517, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly low of 1.1210 [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Eurozone showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating slight inflationary pressures [7] - The upcoming JOLTs Job Openings data is anticipated to draw market attention towards the US labor market [1][12] Group 4: Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with Chairman Jerome Powell warning of risks in the labor market while noting that inflation has not yet returned to target levels, suggesting a potential rate cut as early as September [11] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde stating that the Eurozone's economic growth is "robust" and suggesting no immediate plans for policy easing [13] Group 5: Political and Trade Developments - The trade tensions have eased with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain unchanged, with 30% tariffs on US imports from China and 10% on US exports to China [9] - Political risks in Europe are rising, particularly with the upcoming confidence vote for French Prime Minister François Bayrou regarding his budget plan, which could impact the stability of his minority government [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing slight declines around 1.1600 due to a mild rise in the US dollar, with investors focusing on upcoming key US economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data [1][5] Technical Overview - The Euro/USD shows signs of recovery but remains in a consolidation phase, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742. A breakout could lead to levels of 1.1788 and 1.1830, with a potential target of 1.1909 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1502, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly pivot of 1.1210 [3] Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating moderate upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a lack of clear trend [4] Market Sentiment - The Euro/USD is expected to remain in a consolidation state until a catalyst emerges, such as new guidance from the Federal Reserve or new trade news, with the dollar likely maintaining a dominant market tone [5] Economic Data Overview - Upcoming economic events include various indicators from Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, with notable figures such as the Eurozone Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence expected to be released [6] Trade Relations - Global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain high. The US has imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports, while the EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [7] Political Landscape in France - The political situation in France is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote regarding his budget plan, with potential implications for President Emmanuel Macron's government [8] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating rising risks in the labor market and inflation not yet at target levels, opening the door for potential rate cuts [9] European Central Bank's Position - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that Eurozone economic growth is stable, indicating no urgency for rate cuts [10] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the Euro have increased, with net long positions rising to a three-week high, indicating growing confidence in market positions [11]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96% to 3,617.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%. Brain-computer interface and stablecoin concepts led the gains [1]. - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and climbed. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% to 24,902.53 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.73%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.65%. The pharmaceutical sector was strong, and high-quality stocks pulled up. The market turnover shrank to HK$234.6823 billion on Friday [1]. - European stocks closed mixed, while U.S. stocks closed lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.14%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.65% [1]. Group 2: International Politics and Economics - Russia is considering making concessions to the United States to avoid secondary sanctions and may propose an air ceasefire with Ukraine, but has no intention of stopping the full - scale war [8][12]. - Trump said that the U.S. and China are "very close" to reaching an agreement to extend the trade truce. If successful, he is most likely to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year. The initial U.S.-China trade truce agreement is due to expire on August 12 [8][12]. - The U.S. copper tariffs are expected to impact more than $15 billion worth of imported products, potentially increasing manufacturing costs. The 50% import tariff announced last week has caused turmoil in the global copper market [8][12]. - Trump said that U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports will be announced in about a week. The U.S. has launched an investigation into the semiconductor market since April [12]. Group 3: Corporate News Acquisition and Listing - China Mobile Hong Kong sent out offer documents to acquire all the issued shares of HKBN. The offer period starts today, with the first deadline on September 3 and the final deadline on September 17 [10]. - Vanda Data's C - REIT will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on August 8 [10]. - BrainCo is negotiating to raise funds at a valuation of over $1.3 billion in pre - IPO financing and is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong or the Chinese mainland [10]. - Zhonghui Biotech - B extended its share offering period due to bad weather, and its listing date will be changed to next Monday [10]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange revised the IPO claw - back mechanism, increasing the upper limit from 20% to 35% [10]. - XGIMI Technology is planning to issue overseas listed shares (H shares) and apply for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10]. Stock Transactions and Bond Issuance - Ping An Insurance increased its holdings of 9.36 million H shares of Postal Savings Bank on August 1, increasing its shareholding to over 15% [13]. - Huatai Securities issued bonds worth 5 billion yuan, with an over - subscription of 1.95 times [13]. - Cathay Pacific is reported to order 777X aircraft from Boeing, its first Boeing order in 12 years [13]. - Zhaojin Mining will issue its fourth - phase science and technology innovation bonds worth 1 billion yuan [13]. - Vanke received a loan of up to 1.681 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [13]. Corporate Earnings Forecast - Times Angel expects its net profit for the first half of the year to increase by about 538.1% - 604.8% [13]. - Power Development expects its interim net profit to decline by up to 55% [13]. - Yimai Sunshine expects its interim net profit to increase by up to over 15 times [13]. Group 4: Company Dividends and Rights Issues - Some companies have dividend distribution plans, such as China Tower's interim dividend of RMB 0.1325 or HK$0.145533, and some do not plan to distribute dividends, like Harbour Centre Development [14][15]. - Some companies have rights issues, such as Man Wah Holdings' two - for - one rights issue at a subscription price of HK$0.18 [15]. Group 5: Economic Data - China's S&P Global China PMI Manufacturing in July was 49.5, and the composite and services PMIs also had corresponding values [16]. - U.S. economic data such as non - farm payrolls, manufacturing employment, unemployment rate, and various PMIs in July showed different trends. For example, the non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight news shows that US President Trump plans to shorten the exemption period for Russia, increasing market expectations of new sanctions on Russian energy exports, leading to a generally strong performance of oil prices. The OPEC+ production cut supervision meeting did not give any suggestions, and the production in September will be decided at the weekend meeting of core oil-producing countries. Meanwhile, China-US trade negotiations have begun, and the exemption period may be further extended. In the short term, multiple positive factors are stimulating oil prices to run strongly. The short-term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long-term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: US and Chinese senior economic officials held over five hours of talks in Stockholm to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and seek to extend the trade truce by three months; Trump set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war; the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) emphasized full compliance with oil production agreements, and eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to decide whether to increase oil production in September, which is considered neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.50 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.49 per barrel. The basis was 19.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending July 18 in the US, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected decrease of 646,000 barrels); the EIA inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels); the Cushing area inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous increase of 213,000 barrels). As of July 28, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, an increase of 723,000 barrels, which is considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - Main positions: As of July 15, the main positions in WTI crude oil were long positions, with a decrease in long positions; as of July 15, the main positions in Brent crude oil were long positions, with an increase in long positions, which is considered neutral [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long - term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine to about 10 - 12 days, threatening "secondary sanctions" on Russia. This statement pushed international crude oil futures to rise during Monday's trading session. US WTI crude oil rose to $67.06, up more than 2.9% on the day, and Brent crude oil rose to $70.35, up nearly 2.8% on the day [5]. - US and Chinese senior economic officials held talks in Stockholm, aiming to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and extend the trade truce by three months. Trade analysts believe that the tariff and export control truce reached in mid - May is likely to be extended by 90 days [5]. - Trump's remarks about firing the Fed Chairman Powell and his request to visit the renovation project of the Fed headquarters have attracted attention. Powell will hold a press conference on Thursday morning. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not of high importance for the economy and interest rate decisions. The market generally expects no change in the benchmark interest rate [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it depends on the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil rose from $67.66 to $69.32, an increase of 2.45%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; SC crude oil decreased from 508.6 to 505.5, a decrease of 0.61%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.91 to $71.28, a decrease of 0.88% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $69.67 to $70.41, an increase of 1.06%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.96 to $71.50, a decrease of 0.64%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $67.66 to $67.07, a decrease of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $71.87 to $71.21, a decrease of 0.92% [9]. - API inventory: As of July 18, the API inventory was 45.4388 million barrels, a decrease of 577,000 barrels [10]. - EIA inventory: As of July 18, the EIA inventory was 41.8993 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels [12]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, the net long position was 153,331, a decrease of 9,096 from the previous period [14]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, relevant data shows changes in net long positions, and as of July 15, the net long position was 238,745, an increase of 16,398 from the previous period [17].

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, marking the longest period of zero purchases since 2018, which poses a survival threat to U.S. shale oil producers [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen below $70 per barrel due to dual pressures, with OPEC considering increasing production, further squeezing market space [1] - The crisis is extending from oil fields to the job market, as refineries are forced to cut production and the throughput at Gulf Coast ports is shrinking [1] Group 2 - China is diversifying its energy sources, securing oil from Russia, Canada, and the Middle East, while exploring de-dollarization in oil transactions with Iran, thereby reducing U.S. influence over the global energy market [3] - The U.S. government has responded to the situation by easing restrictions in key sectors, including allowing General Electric to resume supplying engines to Chinese companies, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [3][5] - The trade standoff reflects a clash of international order perspectives, with China's actions demonstrating a break from zero-sum thinking in resource management [6] Group 3 - The 90-day tariff suspension period poses a critical challenge for the U.S. shale oil industry, as failure to negotiate energy and technology exchanges could trigger systemic crises due to accumulated debts [8] - The movement of eight ethane ships to China symbolizes a potential breakthrough in trade relations, but a genuine resolution requires moving beyond resource competition to mutual benefit [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has informed Siemens that it no longer requires "government permission" to conduct business in China, indicating a shift in export control policies [1] - This change is part of a broader trade agreement aimed at facilitating the flow of critical technologies between the U.S. and China, following previous restrictions on chip design software exports [1][2] - Siemens, a leading supplier of chip design software, has restored full access for its Chinese customers to its software and technology [1] Group 2 - In May, the Trump administration had imposed export controls on chip design software to China in response to China's restrictions on rare earth mineral exports [2] - The Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, while a small segment of the semiconductor industry, is crucial for chip designers and manufacturers in developing and testing next-generation chips [2][4] - Recent reports also indicate that the U.S. government has lifted restrictions on ethane exports to China, suggesting a potential thaw in trade relations [4]

Core Insights - China's efforts to diversify its food supply have led to a significant decline in imports of U.S. agricultural products, marking a "qualitative reversal" in trade dynamics [1] - The agricultural trade volume between China and the U.S. may never fully rebound, posing a severe threat to the U.S. agricultural sector, which has historically relied on China as a major export market [1] Group 1: Import Data - In May, China's imports of a basket of U.S. agricultural products plummeted by over 43% year-on-year, compounded by the impact of U.S. tariffs, with several categories of imports nearly ceasing altogether [3] - Specific declines include imports of fresh boneless beef and edible sorghum, which fell by over 97%, while corn and uncombed cotton yarn saw declines of over 93% and 94%, respectively [3] - Frozen beef imports decreased by approximately 50%, and various categories of frozen and processed chicken saw declines exceeding 60% [3] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Future Outlook - Despite a temporary "trade truce" agreement reached in mid-May that reduced most tariffs, historical tariff levels remain high [3] - Soybeans represent a rare bright spot in the trade data, with imports from the U.S. increasing by 28.6% in May; however, this recovery may not be sustainable [3] - Following the imposition of tariffs during Trump's first term, China has shifted most of its soybean purchases from the U.S. to Brazil, making it difficult for U.S. imports to return to previous levels [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - In the first five months of the year, the total value of U.S. agricultural imports by China reached $7.84 billion, a year-on-year decline of 22% [5] - The reduction in import orders affects not only the agricultural sector but also logistics, including dock workers, truck drivers, and warehousing, leading to layoffs in some export companies unable to bear the costs of canceled orders [5] - Historically, the U.S. has been a major supplier of agricultural products to China, providing 21% of China's soybean imports, 15% of corn, 17.3% of wheat, and 65.7% of sorghum last year [5] - Without a broad trade agreement that includes agricultural procurement, the demand for U.S. soybeans is unlikely to recover [5]

Gold Market - The US May CPI year-on-year recorded at 2.4%, and month-on-month at 0.1%, both below market expectations of 2.5% and 0.2%, indicating a moderate decline in inflation [1] - Following the CPI data release, spot gold surged by $12, breaking through $3360, reflecting that the US consumer market has not been fully impacted by Trump's tariffs, primarily due to the postponement of the trade war [1] - Trump's call for a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted gold prices, which stabilized at $3360 before a short-term drop to $3340 as market sentiment cooled [1] - Technical analysis indicates gold is oscillating between $3300 and $3400, with support at $3320 and resistance at $3380 [1] Oil Market - The US EIA's short-term energy report predicts a decline in US crude oil production over the next 18 months, with daily production expected to drop from 13.5 million barrels in Q2 to 13.3 million barrels [2] - The number of active US oil rigs fell to 442, the lowest since October 2021, down by 50 rigs from last year, which may help support oil prices due to reduced supply [2] - Recent US-China trade negotiations have resulted in a framework agreement to ease economic tensions, extending last month's trade truce [2] - Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, with Trump expressing reduced confidence in reaching a nuclear agreement, while Iran threatened to target US military bases in the region if negotiations fail, causing a spike in oil prices [2] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices have broken through the significant resistance level of $65.10, reaching a high of $69.10, with support at $66.40 [2] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop influenced by Trump's rate cut comments, breaking through 22060 and finding support around 21750, maintaining an overall upward trend with a focus on long positions [3] - The uncertainty introduced by Trump's statements necessitates caution regarding potential downward movements in the market [3] US Dollar Index - The dollar index fell below the previous low of 98.56 due to Trump's rate cut comments, continuing its downward trend, with support at the year's low of 97.90 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary trade truce between the US and China has led to a significant surge in shipping demand from China to the US, with container bookings more than doubling in a week, indicating a rebound in trade activity [2][3]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Pricing - Container bookings from China to US ports surged to approximately 228,000 TEUs, more than doubling from the previous week following the trade agreement [2]. - The Drewry World Container Index reported a significant increase in shipping prices, with spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rising about 16% to $3,136 per 40-foot container, marking the largest increase of the year [2]. - International air cargo flights also saw a nearly 18% increase in the number of flights, reflecting heightened demand across transportation modes [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Impact - The surge in orders is attributed to "pre-stocking" as retailers aim to avoid high tariffs, coinciding with a critical shopping season where goods take about a month to reach the US [3]. - Manufacturing facilities, such as those producing home appliances, are operating at full capacity to meet the increased demand, with clients requesting the resumption of previously paused orders [7]. - Shipping companies, including Maersk, are increasing their capacity in response to the rise in bookings, indicating a recovery in shipping operations [7]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends - Despite the recent uptick in shipping activity, overall shipping levels remain on par with last year, suggesting that many retailers are either ordering less than in previous years or are waiting for more certainty in the market [7]. - The proportion of canceled sailings has decreased significantly from 25% to 13%, indicating a return to more stable shipping operations [8]. - Recent trade data from Asia shows that the trade policies have caused disruptions, with South Korea's exports down 2.4% year-on-year and Japan's exports growing only 2%, the weakest growth in seven months [9].