一、后美元时代加速，推手真不是人民币，为何美元有出路无退路？ 美元自1944年取代英镑成为世界货币以来，已经整整79年了。布雷顿森林会议于1944年达成的协议，确定了美元作为全球各国货币的标准和储备货币，而美 国也承诺以固定的价格，将各国央行手中的美元兑换为黄金。布雷顿森林体系的基础就是金汇兑本位制，也就是美元—黄金本位制。在这个体系下，美元和 黄金是等价的，美国不仅负责发行美元，还承担着按官方汇率兑换黄金的责任（35美元兑换一盎司黄金）。因此，美元才被称为美金。 在美元成为世界货币后，暴露出美国想要称霸全球的野心。美国开始积极参与朝鲜战争等军事冲突，军费支出迅速增加，同时国际收支长期处于逆差状态， 黄金储备不断流失。到1968年，美国的黄金储备比例已下降至25%，而在1971年，美国宣布停止向其他国家兑换黄金，标志着布雷顿森林体系的崩溃。 1974年，美国国务卿基辛格与沙特王室达成协议：美国为沙特提供军事保护，作为回报，沙特决定以美元作为石油结算货币，并拒绝接受其他任何货币。到 1975年，欧佩克的其他产油国也同意以美元结算石油交易。随着布雷顿森林体系的解体，美元找到了新的支柱，从此黄金—美元体系彻底被石油 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the investment landscape, particularly highlighting the challenges posed by the shift from globalization to de-globalization and demographic changes affecting economic growth [1][3]. Core Insights - The transition from globalization to de-globalization presents significant challenges for investors accustomed to previous market conditions [1][3]. - Demographic shifts, particularly aging populations in regions like Europe and China, are expected to slow global economic growth rates, impacting long-term economic forecasts [1][9]. - Despite global trends, there remain substantial investment opportunities in U.S. technology companies, although the U.S. stock market is projected to underperform compared to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. - High debt levels in developed countries, comparable to those during World War II, pose potential risks if interest rates rise, increasing debt repayment costs [1][11]. - The role of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, as evidenced by its increasing negative correlation with gold and the rising correlation with alternative assets like Bitcoin [1][13]. Summary by Sections Globalization and Economic Trends - The report discusses the reversal of globalization trends and the implications of demographic changes on economic growth, particularly the decline in the working-age population in the U.S., Europe, and China [1][9][10]. U.S. Market Opportunities - Investment opportunities in U.S. technology firms remain robust, despite a forecasted underperformance of the U.S. stock market relative to global markets in 2025 [1][4]. Debt and Economic Stability - The report highlights the concerning levels of debt in developed nations, with the U.S. debt repayment costs projected to exceed defense budgets in 2024, a historical indicator of potential negative outcomes [1][12]. Dollar Dynamics - The report emphasizes the changing perception of the U.S. dollar, noting its declining status as a safe-haven asset and the increasing relevance of alternative assets in investor portfolios [1][14][17]. Future Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor indicators such as the dollar's exchange rates, its share in global transactions, and its correlation with risk assets to gauge shifts in perceptions of its stability [1][12].

Group 1 - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the critical 5% mark, causing significant turmoil in global capital markets [1] - The current economic situation in the US is seen as a culmination of three decades of fiscal mismanagement, leading to a clash between inflation control and growth maintenance [3] - The US's urgent call for a second round of talks following the market crash indicates a desperate attempt to stabilize the situation [4] Group 2 - China's new negotiation conditions, including the lifting of technology sanctions and promoting cross-border RMB settlements, aim to strategically undermine the US dollar system [7] - The reduction of US Treasury holdings by China over the past six months, alongside an increase in gold reserves and local currency settlements, suggests a shift towards a new payment network that bypasses the dollar [9] - Global capital movements, such as Japan's secret bond purchases and Saudi Arabia's avoidance of US Treasuries, reflect a collective anticipation of a post-dollar era [9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates to protect the dollar risks crushing corporate debt, while lowering rates to alleviate debt burdens could destabilize the currency [11] - The potential collapse of US Treasuries by 2025 may mark a critical point in the restructuring of the international monetary system, with significant implications for global trade and technology [13] - The current situation highlights the fragility of so-called "safe assets," suggesting that traditional wisdom of holding cash and hard currencies may be more prudent in times of systemic risk [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the accelerated transition to a post-dollar era, emphasizing that the driving force is not the rise of the Renminbi, but rather the inherent issues within the U.S. economy and its policies [12] - Since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the U.S. dollar has been the dominant global currency, but its status is now being challenged due to high inflation, debt, and deficits [3][5][12] - The U.S. national debt has surged to over $31.4 trillion in 2023, significantly exceeding its GDP, indicating a severe debt crisis [8] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index is currently in a downward trend, with potential to fall below the 100 mark, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [16] - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, are experiencing a period of slight upward movement despite the overall downward trend of the dollar [18] - The A-share market, including indices like the STAR Market and the Shanghai Composite, is showing synchronized upward trends, with significant inflows from northbound capital indicating positive market sentiment [22]