编辑丨高梦阳 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。从年初的4500余家到突破万店，仅 用了10个多月就实现了门店数翻倍。 幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品牌，主要产品定价在6—8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场9.9元。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及广大下沉 市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长164%。7 月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长超过300%，且来自一线城市的加盟咨询电话激增。而幸运咖方面认为， 销售爆发也与其主动营销策略有关。 但是，外卖补贴正在退潮。 记者丨贺泓源 韦怡琦 瑞幸执行官郭谨一也在近期的业绩会上提到，随着外卖补贴退潮，瑞幸在第四季度乃至明年的同店销售 额增长指标将面临短期波动与压力。 这或许会影响幸运咖的下一步增长。 亦要看到，随着外卖补贴退潮，咖啡价格战可能会进入更稳定 ...

记者丨贺泓源 韦怡琦 编辑丨高梦阳 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。 从年初的4500余家到突 破万店，仅用了10个多月就实现了门店数翻倍。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及 广大下沉市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长 164%。7月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长超过300%，且来自一线城市的加盟咨询电话激增。而 幸运咖方面认为，销售爆发也与其主动营销策略有关。 但是，外卖补贴正在退潮。 有正在扩张期的咖啡品牌高管告诉21世纪经济报道记者， 7月后，外卖补贴明显收缩。 幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品牌，主要产品定价在6—8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场 9.9元。 瑞幸执行官郭谨一也在近期的业绩会上提到，随着外卖补贴退潮，瑞幸在第四季度乃至明年的 同店销售额增长指标将面临短期波动与压力。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 这 ...

21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生韦怡琦 比库迪更便宜的幸运咖门店数破万家了。 亦要看到，随着外卖补贴退潮，咖啡价格战可能会进入更稳定的新阶段。 大概方向是，产品价格稳定在某个区间。比如，库迪曾靠着一己之力把咖啡市场拖入9.9元价格战，现 在库迪正坚守在这一区间。可从产品价格上，应该不会再出现2.9元的超低价。 幸运咖会把市场带到6-8元区间吗？客观上，咖啡茶饮赛道，是典型高频消费赛道，产品补贴价格降低 后能催生出大量需求。若瑞幸、库迪们不跟，同行将会迅速占领市场，所以只能迎战。 2025年11月24日，幸运咖宣布，其全球门店数量正式突破10000家。幸运咖是蜜雪集团旗下现磨咖啡品 牌，主要产品定价在6-8元。作为对比，库迪正在实施全场9.9元。 从门店规模来看，截至三季度末，瑞幸门店数为29214家。库迪最新数据是1.8万家。 另据幸运咖披露，截至目前，幸运咖门店已覆盖全国超300座城市，包括一线、二三线城市及广大下沉 市场。其中，一线市场的门店数已超千家，北京地区门店数达到100家。 需要注意的是，幸运咖的爆发，有着外卖大战推动。在今年二季度，幸运咖新签门店同比增长164%。7 月以来，加盟咨询量环比增长 ...

Core Insights - The coffee market in China is experiencing a significant price drop, with prices for coffee reaching as low as 1.9 yuan per cup through promotions and discounts, indicating a shift towards making coffee a daily staple rather than a luxury item [1][3][4] Price Trends - Luckin Coffee and Kudi previously set a price point of 9.9 yuan per cup, but new entrants like TAIJUAN COFFEE are offering prices as low as 2.9 yuan for freshly brewed coffee [1][2] - The trend of low-priced coffee is gaining traction, with some consumers able to purchase coffee for as little as 0.99 yuan per cup through group buying [2][3] Market Dynamics - The coffee market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Kudi and Luckin facing pressure from new low-cost competitors, leading to a potential crisis for their established pricing strategies [1][4] - The cost of coffee production is rising due to global supply chain issues, making it difficult for brands to sustain low prices without incurring losses [4][5] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly viewing coffee as an affordable daily necessity, with reports of individuals consuming multiple cups a day at low prices [3][4] - The perception of coffee as a high-end product is diminishing, as evidenced by consumers finding low-priced options cheaper than traditional breakfast items [2][3] Supply Chain Considerations - The domestic coffee bean roasting capacity is expected to increase starting in 2024, with more companies investing in local coffee production, which may help stabilize prices in the future [6] - Brands that can streamline their supply chains or leverage local sourcing may have a competitive advantage in maintaining lower prices [5][6]

Core Insights - The coffee market in China is experiencing a significant price drop, with prices for freshly brewed coffee falling to as low as 2.9 yuan per cup, challenging the previous price point of 9.9 yuan set by brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi [1][4] - The trend indicates that coffee is becoming a daily staple for consumers, moving away from its previous status as a premium product [2][3] Price Dynamics - The recent promotional campaign by the tea brand Guming offered coffee at 2.9 yuan per cup, leading to a surge in consumer interest and social media buzz [2] - TAIJUAN COFFEE has also entered the market with competitive pricing, offering American coffee at 3.9 yuan and espresso at 2.9 yuan [2] - The price of coffee has been driven down by intense competition and promotional strategies, with some consumers reporting prices as low as 0.99 yuan per cup through group buying [3] Market Competition - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Guming and TAIJUAN COFFEE challenging established players like Luckin and Kudi, which previously dominated the 9.9 yuan price point [4][5] - Industry experts suggest that the 9.9 yuan price point is now seen as a low-margin strategy, with costs for coffee beans and other inputs rising, making it difficult for brands to sustain profitability at this level [4][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing price over brand prestige, with many expressing surprise at the affordability of freshly brewed coffee compared to traditional breakfast items [2][3] - The perception of coffee as a daily necessity is growing, particularly among working-class individuals who consume multiple cups per day [3] Sustainability of Low Prices - Analysts warn that the current low pricing strategy may not be sustainable without ongoing platform subsidies, as rising costs for coffee beans and other materials are putting pressure on profit margins [6][7] - The future of low-priced coffee may depend on efficient supply chains and the ability to leverage low-cost domestic coffee production [7]

Core Insights - The coffee market in China is experiencing a significant price drop, with prices for a cup of coffee falling to as low as 2.9 yuan, driven by aggressive promotional strategies from brands like Gu Ming and TAIJUAN COFFEE [1][3][4] Price Trends - Luckin Coffee and Kudi previously set a price point of 9.9 yuan per cup, but the competition has intensified, leading to prices as low as 1.9 yuan for delivery and 2.9 yuan in-store [1][3][4] - Gu Ming launched a two-week promotion offering coffee at 2.9 yuan, distributing 2 million coupons, which quickly gained popularity on social media [6][4] - TAIJUAN COFFEE opened in Shanghai with prices starting at 3.9 yuan for American coffee, indicating a shift towards lower pricing strategies in the market [6][4] Market Dynamics - The concept of coffee is shifting from a luxury item to a daily staple, with consumers now prioritizing price over brand prestige [4][7] - The competitive landscape is changing, with brands like Gu Ming and TAIJUAN COFFEE challenging established players like Luckin and Kudi, which previously dominated the 9.9 yuan price segment [9][11] Supply Chain and Sustainability - The current low prices are unsustainable without platform subsidies, as rising global coffee bean costs and other operational expenses make it difficult for brands to maintain profitability at these price points [11][12] - The future stability of coffee prices may rely on improved supply chain efficiencies and local sourcing of coffee beans, as seen with brands like Luckin and Starbucks [12][11] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly drawn to low-priced coffee options, with some reporting that a cup of coffee is now cheaper than traditional breakfast items [4][7] - The trend indicates a broader acceptance of coffee as an everyday beverage among the working population, further driving demand for affordable options [7][9]

Core Insights - Starbucks China reported significantly better-than-expected financial results for Q4 and the full year of FY2025, with a revenue of $831.6 million for Q4, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a total revenue of $3.105 billion for FY2025, up 5% year-on-year [1][2] - The competition in the domestic coffee market has intensified, with a shift from coffee being a "social attribute" to a "daily attribute," creating new opportunities for affordable coffee brands [1][4] Starbucks' Performance - Starbucks has successfully expanded into lower-tier markets, opening 8,011 stores in 1,091 county-level cities by the end of FY2025 [1] - The company has implemented significant price reductions on popular products, marking its largest price adjustment in 26 years in China, which has contributed to its strong performance amid a broader industry downturn [2] Luckin Coffee's Growth - Luckin Coffee, under the Moutai Group, has rapidly expanded its presence in first-tier markets, with over 1,000 stores and a total exceeding 9,000 stores nationwide, aiming for a target of 10,000 stores [2][3] - The introduction of new products, such as the "Lucky Latte Season" series, has driven significant sales, with the "Coconut Latte" alone generating over $300 million in sales and exceeding 30 million cups sold this year [3] Market Trends - The coffee consumption landscape is shifting, with younger consumers increasingly favoring affordable yet quality options, indicating a potential mainstream trend for budget coffee brands [4] - The competition is evolving from incremental growth to a focus on existing market share, with brands needing to emphasize cost control, supply chain management, and brand development to succeed [4]

Core Insights - The coffee industry in China is experiencing a significant price drop, with prices reaching as low as 2.9 yuan per cup, leading to discussions about a "cabbage price era" for coffee [1][5][14] - Major brands like Taijuan Coffee and Guming are aggressively lowering prices to attract customers, with Guming's recent promotion offering coffee at 2.9 yuan during breakfast hours [1][7] - The trend of offering free coffee in restaurants and cafes is becoming more common as a strategy to attract customers, with examples from various establishments in major cities [3][10] Price Trends - Coffee prices in China have decreased by approximately 90% over the past five years, with brands like Luckin and Kudi leading the charge by offering coffee at prices below 10 yuan [5][9] - The ongoing price war has made coffee more accessible, with consumers now able to purchase coffee at prices comparable to or lower than tea [5][14] Market Dynamics - The rise of low-priced coffee has attracted a diverse customer base, including students and young professionals, who previously viewed coffee as too expensive [14] - The number of coffee shops in China has more than doubled from 108,000 at the end of 2020 to over 233,000 as of September 2023, indicating a significant market expansion [14][18] Consumer Behavior - The increasing availability of low-cost coffee is changing consumer habits, with more people developing a taste for coffee and incorporating it into their daily routines [9][14] - There is speculation about whether coffee could become as ubiquitous as free tea in restaurants, although experts suggest that this is still a distant possibility [10][12] Future Outlook - The Chinese coffee market is expected to continue evolving, with new brands entering the space and existing brands expanding their reach, such as JD's recent entry into the fresh coffee market [18] - The future positioning of coffee brands in China remains uncertain, with ongoing competition likely to shape consumer preferences and market dynamics [18]

Core Viewpoint - The coffee industry is experiencing a significant price war, with prices dropping to as low as 2.9 yuan, leading to intense competition among brands and a redefinition of coffee's market value [3][4][18]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Two years ago, brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi initiated a price war, setting coffee prices at 9.9 yuan, which has now evolved into a new phase where brands like Guming and Cha Baidao are offering coffee for 4 yuan and above [3][5][6]. - In 2025, a second wave of price competition was ignited by new tea brands, with Guming launching a campaign offering coffee starting at 4.9 yuan, effectively halving the previous price point [6][7]. - The price war has led to a situation where high-end brands like Starbucks have also reduced prices, with average reductions of around 5 yuan per product [3][4][18]. Group 2: Impact on Brands - The aggressive pricing strategies have forced traditional coffee brands to adapt, with Luckin Coffee and Kudi responding to the new low-price entrants by launching their own promotions, such as 5.9 yuan coffee [10][12]. - The entry of new players like Lucky Coffee, which offers coffee as low as 2.9 yuan, has further intensified the competition, leading to a significant increase in order volumes for some stores [15][16]. - The overall market has seen a decline, with over 50,000 coffee shops closing in the past year, indicating that the price war is unsustainable for many players [18][19]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer expectations for coffee pricing have shifted dramatically, with many now viewing 4 yuan as a reasonable price point for coffee [6][10]. - The blurring lines between coffee and tea products have led to increased competition, with brands like Cha Baidao also entering the low-price coffee market [8][12]. - The industry is becoming increasingly segmented, with different price points catering to diverse consumer preferences, highlighting the need for brands to innovate and invest in their supply chains to remain competitive [19].

Core Viewpoint - The coffee price war continues, with brands like Luckin and Kudi initiating aggressive pricing strategies, leading to a significant drop in coffee prices across the industry, now entering the 4 yuan+ era [1][2][10]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - The coffee industry has seen a shift from a 9.9 yuan pricing model to a new low of 4.9 yuan initiated by new tea drink brands like Guming [2][3]. - Guming's promotional campaign offers coffee starting at 4.9 yuan, significantly undercutting previous prices and positioning itself as a "price butcher" in the market [2][3]. - The competition has intensified with established brands like Starbucks and Kudi also reducing prices, with Starbucks implementing its first price cuts in 26 years in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Consumer Behavior - The aggressive pricing strategies have led to a blurring of lines between coffee and tea beverages, with increased order volumes reported by various brands [5][10]. - The introduction of low-priced coffee options has altered consumer expectations, with many now perceiving 4 yuan as a reasonable price for coffee [2][10]. - The rise of brands like Lucky Coffee, offering prices as low as 2.9 yuan, has further intensified the competition, leading to a significant increase in order volumes at certain locations [7][9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The ongoing price war has resulted in over 50,000 coffee shops closing in the past year, indicating a challenging environment for many players in the market [10]. - High-end brands are not only participating in the price war but are also facing operational challenges, including layoffs and acquisitions, as seen with Starbucks and Piye Coffee [10]. - The industry is becoming increasingly segmented, with various price points catering to different consumer groups, highlighting the need for long-term strategies in supply chain and investment [10].