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国泰海通 · 晨报0812|策略、建筑工程、航空航天
Group 1: Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes an improvement in risk appetite supporting global equity allocation value, with a tactical overweight on A-shares and US stocks as of August [3] - The current low interest rate environment necessitates higher demands for asset allocation research, with a strategic asset allocation (SAA) plan yielding an annualized return of 9.1% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.57 as of the end of July [3] - The proposed strategic benchmark allocation is set at 45% for equities, 45% for bonds, and 10% for commodities, with a deviation limit of 10% [3] Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation Insights - The enhancement of risk appetite is identified as a key factor influencing current tactical asset allocation, with expectations of continued strong performance in equity assets supported by various factors including technological breakthroughs and government support for capital markets [4] - The tactical asset allocation (TAA) plan anticipates a 55% weight in equities, 40% in bonds, and 5% in commodities, reflecting optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as marginal optimism for US and Japanese stocks [4] - Caution is advised regarding government bonds due to market risk appetite adjustments and redemption pressures, while commodity prices, particularly oil, may face dual pressures from supply and demand [4] Group 3: Infrastructure Opportunities in Xinjiang - Historical reviews of three central work conferences on Xinjiang indicate significant stock price increases for key construction companies following these meetings, with notable gains such as 45.6% for Beixin Road and Bridge after the first conference [10] - Fixed asset investment in Xinjiang increased by 16.2% in the first five months of the year, with industrial investment rising by 22.8%, particularly in wind and solar energy projects [11] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan highlights ongoing infrastructure investment, with plans for 500 key projects totaling 3.47 trillion yuan by 2025 [12] Group 4: Coal Chemical Industry Development - The coal chemical sector in Xinjiang is projected to experience a construction peak, with planned projects exceeding 800 billion yuan, driven by policy support [13] - Companies like China Chemical and Donghua Technology are positioned to capitalize on traditional coal chemical market opportunities, with significant new orders reported [13] Group 5: Aerospace and Satellite Deployment - The acceleration of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite deployment is identified as a critical area, with a projected need for 2.3 million satellites by 2030, necessitating enhanced rocket launch capabilities [18] - Current rocket launch capacity is insufficient to meet the demand for satellite deployment, with an annual requirement of 1,500-2,000 tons compared to the current capacity of approximately 200 tons [19] - Reusable rocket technology is highlighted as a key factor in reducing launch costs, with liquid fuel rockets becoming the mainstream choice for new generation reusable rockets [20]