1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: Oscillation [5] - Protein meal: Oscillation [6] - Corn/starch: Oscillation [6] - Pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Natural rubber: Oscillation [8] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillation [10] - Cotton: Oscillation [11] - Sugar: Oscillation [12] - Pulp: Oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - Logs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market due to the good growth of US soybeans. The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments in protein meal. Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Synthetic rubber prices continue to rise following the overall commodity trend. Pulp investment should follow the macro trend and go long. Low inventory supports cotton prices, while increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: US soybeans are growing well, and rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market yesterday. - **Industry Information**: As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. - **Logic**: US soybeans may decline due to expected rainfall, and domestic oils and fats oscillated lower yesterday. The macro environment shows a weakening US dollar and stable crude oil prices. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is still at a relatively high level, and the market expects a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is expected to increase, and domestic soybean oil inventories are rising. Palm oil production is in the increasing season, with expected inventory accumulation. Rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly decreasing. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, the pressure of correction has increased, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support below [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, 2025, the international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, with a risk of low precipitation in the next 15 days. The US soybean export outlook is worrying, but Brazilian soybean premiums are rising. Domestically, the spot price follows the futures, but the basis weakens slightly. Soybean arrivals increase, and the refinery operating rate rises, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. In the long term, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the basis is expected to be weak. Oil refineries can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices. Hold long positions at 2900 [6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main contract closing price increased by 0.09%. - **Logic**: As the trade sector actively sells grain, the supply in ports and deep - processing industries decreases. It is expected that the supply of old crops will tighten further from July to August, and prices may rebound in some areas. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market has digested the bullish factors. Recently, due to weather and previous overselling, spot prices have rebounded. New - season corn production is normal, and there is an expectation of increased supply and decreased prices in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking, and prices may rebound. After the new - crop listing, there is a downward driving force [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 0.35%, and the futures closing price increased by 0.10%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of groups of pigs is accelerating, and farmers still have the sentiment to fatten pigs. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity is still high, but the government is guiding the industry to adjust. The demand is not strong, and there is still sentiment for secondary fattening among farmers. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply - side adjustment policy has a positive impact on the market, but the supply pressure in the third quarter remains. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products showed different changes on July 22. - **Logic**: The commodity market is strong, and the bullish sentiment continues. Natural rubber follows the upward trend, and its fundamentals are currently stable. On the supply side, Asian production areas are affected by the rainy season, and the supply is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of some tire enterprises has recovered, and the demand is stable. In the third quarter, there may be de - stocking transactions, and rubber prices may rise further if the macro sentiment remains positive. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall following the overall commodity sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market continues to rise following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes. - **Logic**: The market is mainly driven by the macro environment. In terms of fundamentals, there are no major changes. The price of butadiene has been oscillating strongly, and downstream demand is good, with no obvious supply pressure. The short - term price center may rise further. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in production facilities [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices. - **Industry Information**: As of July 22, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed changes. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the supply of cotton is expected to be loose. It is currently the off - season for downstream demand, and enterprises' operating rates are declining, with a slight increase in finished - product inventory. However, the de - stocking speed of cotton is fast, and the supply is tight before the new - crop listing. In the short term, low inventory supports prices, but the risk of a pull - back is increasing. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure after the new - crop listing. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, but the upward resistance is increasing [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, with production increases expected in major producing countries. Domestic sales are fast, and industrial inventories are decreasing. However, imports have been increasing since May, and Brazil is entering the peak production and export period. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, there is a lack of bullish factors, and the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The investment should follow the macro trend and go long. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products showed different changes. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have been rising recently, mainly driven by the macro environment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward driving force comes from the macro aspect. On the supply side, the US dollar price is falling, and overseas pulp mill inventories are high. On the demand side, downstream paper production and sales are increasing, but the price performance reflects poor market expectations. In the short term, the macro environment drives the price up, and the valuation support weakens after the rebound. In the medium term, there is pressure from high imports, and the supply is expected to be abundant. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate strongly due to a favorable macro environment and relatively low valuation [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment. - **Logic**: The log market has filled the previous gap and is oscillating around 840. Technically, it maintains an upward trend. Fundamentally, port inventory has decreased, but the short - term circulation pressure of deliverable goods has increased, and the ability of processing plants to receive goods has decreased. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium term. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand this year is stable. The new foreign quotation has increased, which reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at low prices. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of high - price CFR and the change in the volume of deliverable goods. Speculators are advised to wait and see, and industrial players can participate in hedging according to their costs [15][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - This section mainly lists various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards - **Bullish**: Expected increase greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation with a bullish bias**: Expected increase between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation**: Expected increase or decrease within plus or minus 1 standard deviation. - **Oscillation with a bearish bias**: Expected decrease between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Bearish**: Expected decrease greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Time Period**: Next 2 - 12 weeks. - **Standard Deviation**: 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [175]