Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the commodity market, particularly focusing on the recent surge and subsequent crash in prices, highlighting the impact on traders and investment firms in Hangzhou [6][8][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market experienced a rapid increase in prices, with polysilicon rising over 70% in a month and coking coal hitting a rare five consecutive limit-up days [6][7]. - Following the Dalian Commodity Exchange's position limits on coking coal on July 25, prices plummeted, leading to significant losses for many traders and investment products [7][8]. - The volatility resulted in substantial losses for various asset management products, with some firms reporting losses exceeding 6% [8][12]. Group 2: Hangzhou Trading Community - The Hangzhou trading community, known for its strong commodity trading culture, includes major players such as trade companies and the Yong'an system, which are sensitive to industrial cycles [10][11]. - The article describes the competitive landscape of futures companies in Hangzhou, emphasizing the influence of Yong'an Futures and its training approach for research personnel [12][13]. - Despite their expertise, the Hangzhou traders were caught off guard by the rapid market fluctuations, leading to a collective underestimation of the power of policy and market sentiment [13][20]. Group 3: Economic Context - The current market environment differs significantly from previous supply-side reforms, with unclear demand sources and a focus on downstream private enterprises [15][16]. - Analysts express confusion over the price increases in coking coal and soda ash, citing a lack of concrete execution details and a disconnect between market sentiment and actual demand [16][17]. - The article highlights the challenges of balancing production capacity governance with maintaining reasonable output and effective demand in the current economic climate [17][18]. Group 4: Emotional Trading and Market Reactions - The article notes that emotional trading has taken precedence over fundamental analysis, with traders reacting to market rumors and speculative news rather than solid data [18][19]. - The extreme volatility in coking coal trading, with significant fluctuations in trading volume and price, exemplifies the chaotic nature of the current market [19][20]. - The Hangzhou trading community, traditionally grounded in industry knowledge, struggles to adapt to the emotionally driven trading environment, leading to substantial financial risks [20][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the key to future market dynamics will be whether the expectations of demand improvement can translate into reality, setting the stage for a critical confrontation between bullish and bearish sentiments [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].