每经记者｜温梦华 每经编辑｜赵云 随着2025年业绩"预答卷"出炉，*ST兰黄迎来"保壳"关键时刻。 1月27日晚，*ST兰黄发布业绩预告称，2025年公司预计营收为4亿元～4.6亿元，其中扣除后营收为3.8亿～4.4 亿元；归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计约为-6200万元～-9000万元。 同时，公司也发布了股票可能被终止上市的风险提示公告。按相关规定，2025年年报，如果*ST兰黄依然是亏 损，则要满足"扣除后营收不低于3亿元"这一指标，否则将面临被强制退市。 作为曾经的"西北啤酒王"，*ST兰黄曾一度在西北地区颇负盛名。但2022年至2024年，公司已连续三年亏损。 面对业绩颓势，*ST兰黄加码押宝啤酒"饮料化"，试图突围。《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者还注意到，按照业 绩预告，公司预计实现超4亿元的营收，得益于第四季度"神助攻"。 在传统的行业淡季，为何第四季度营收同比增长超450%？愈发"内卷"的饮料业务能否助力*ST兰黄"保壳"成 功？ 从*ST兰黄的业绩预告来看，2025年公司预计无论是利润总额、归属于上市公司股东的净利润，还是扣非净利 润，均为亏损。 数据显示，2025年公司预计归属于上市公司股 ...

Core Insights - The investment by Xuewang in Fulu Family signifies a renewed interest in the craft beer and fruit-flavored beer market, which is gaining traction among younger consumers [1][2][20] - The acquisition involves Xuewang obtaining a 53% stake in Fulu Family for approximately RMB 297 million, expanding its portfolio into the fresh beer sector [2][3] - The trend of "light drinking" is becoming mainstream, with over 80% of young people preferring lighter alcoholic beverages, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [20][22] Market Dynamics - Fulu Family has become the leading brand in China for fresh beer chain stores by store count, highlighting the competitive landscape in this segment [3] - The entry of various brands into the fruit beer market, such as Guozi Shule and Xinling, reflects a broader trend of diversification and innovation in alcoholic beverages [5][15] - The fruit beer market is projected to grow significantly, with global market size expected to reach USD 318.6 billion by 2024 and approximately USD 435.7 billion by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory [18] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are redefining their relationship with alcohol, focusing more on emotional experiences and taste rather than alcohol content [23][26] - The appeal of fruit beer lies in its ability to be consumed in various social settings, including daytime events, making it more accessible and relatable to younger audiences [24][25] - The pricing strategy for fruit beer, typically ranging from RMB 5 to 10 per can, positions it competitively against other non-alcoholic beverages, facilitating broader market penetration [25] Cultural Shift - The cultural narrative around drinking is shifting from "drinking to socialize" to "drinking for personal enjoyment," with fruit beer symbolizing a more relaxed and enjoyable drinking experience [26][27] - Fruit beer is becoming a symbol of a lifestyle that emphasizes relaxation and social media sharing, appealing to the younger demographic's desire for visually appealing and enjoyable products [27] Future Considerations - While fruit beer is positioned as an evolution of the previous "sweet liquor" trend, it benefits from a more stable production and supply chain, reducing the risk of rapid decline seen in past trends [28][29] - The increasing number of brands entering the fruit beer market may lead to potential homogenization, necessitating continuous innovation to maintain distinctiveness [28][29]

Core Insights - The beer market is experiencing intensified competition as it enters a phase of stock competition, with contrasting performance driven by events like the European Cup and the Paris Olympics, alongside adverse weather and weak recovery in dining demand [1][3] - The overall beer industry remains highly fragmented, with major players like Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, and Yanjing Beer generating over 150 billion yuan in total revenue, while smaller companies struggle with revenues below 1.3 billion yuan [1][3] Industry Performance - In 2024, the beer industry in China saw a 0.6% decline in production among large-scale enterprises, with industry revenue decreasing by 5.7%, marking it as the only category in the food and beverage sector to experience a revenue drop [3][8] - Major companies such as Budweiser APAC, Tsingtao Brewery, and China Resources Beer reported revenue declines of 8.8%, 5.3%, and 2.45% respectively, while Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer managed to achieve revenue growth [3][10] Financial Results - Among the six major beer companies, Budweiser APAC, China Resources Beer, and Chongqing Beer all faced declines in both revenue and net profit, while Tsingtao Brewery saw a slight increase in net profit despite a revenue drop [5][6] - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit, with Yanjing's net profit increasing by 63% [5][6] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, major beer companies showed resilience with revenue and net profit growth, particularly Yanjing Beer, which achieved a net profit increase of over 60% [13][14] - Qingdao Beer led in revenue with approximately 10.446 billion yuan, while Zhujiang Beer had the highest revenue growth rate at 10.69% [14][16] Market Trends - The beer market is shifting towards high-end products, with companies focusing on premium offerings to attract consumers [15][17] - Yanjing Beer has launched new beverage products, indicating a strategic move towards diversification and tapping into the beverage market [17][18] - Qingdao Beer is also exploring beverage integration through its strategic merger with Qingdao Beverage Group, enhancing its product offerings and market reach [19]