Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Baijiu Industry - The baijiu sector has reached a bottom in fundamentals, with valuations at low levels and market expectations recovering. Demand-side pressures are dissipating, and seasonal catalysts are expected to boost interest in brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Zhenjiu Shede for short-term opportunities, while Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are recommended for long-term investment [1][2][4] Beverage and Snack Industry - The beverage sector is favorable for leading companies such as Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, while the snack sector shows good alignment between valuation and growth potential. Key products to watch for Q4 catalysts include Weijia and Yanjinpuzi, with Yili identified as a bottom-value recovery company [1][5] Whisky Industry - In 2024, whisky imports are expected to decline by approximately 40%, with high-aged whisky's share also decreasing. Instant consumption channels now account for over 30% of sales, with dining and home consumption being the primary scenarios [3][13] Beer Industry - Both Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer have seen their valuations drop to attractive levels, with Yanjing at 23-24 times earnings and Zhujiang at 21 times, both reflecting 2025 valuation levels. These companies are noted for their growth potential driven by flagship products [19] Company-Specific Insights Zhenjiu Lid - Zhenjiu Lid has launched an equity payment plan to bind the interests of alliance merchants, with the first quarter's alliance contributing approximately 320 million yuan in revenue. The acupuncture business is projected to account for 5% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [6][8][7] Baijun Co., Ltd. - Baijun's major shareholder transferred 6% of shares to Homa's Liu Jianbo, which is expected to empower Baijun in business expansion and overseas market development. The shareholding structure remains stable, providing opportunities for deeper collaboration [12] Restaurant Chain Industry - The restaurant chain sector has shown signs of recovery since Q2 2025, with stable performance from leading companies like Lihua Bao and Baba Foods. The frozen food leader Anjins has also shown significant improvement in revenue [10][11] Zhujiang Beer - Zhujiang Beer is focusing on expanding its market share through its flagship product, Pure Draft 97, while also launching new products to maintain competitiveness. The company is developing its "15th Five-Year Plan" for future growth [15][17][18] H&H International Holdings - H&H International expects high single-digit revenue growth for the year, with EBITDA margins around 15%. The health supplement business is performing well, while the milk powder segment anticipates low double-digit growth [20] Jianhe Health - Jianhe Health's fundamentals are improving, driven by new consumer customer acquisition in China and profitability improvements in its overseas subsidiaries. The company is expected to see good performance in Q3 due to new orders [21][22] Additional Insights - The baijiu sector is currently viewed as a mid-to-long-term value investment opportunity, with market expectations warming up as demand-side pressures ease [2] - The innovative model of the Wan Shang Alliance is expected to have a significant impact on the company's financials, with a focus on long-term development and binding interests with distributors [9]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the beer industry in the first half of 2025 shows steady revenue growth and double-digit profit increase, with total revenue reaching 41.534 billion yuan, up 2.75% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.512 billion yuan, up 11.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the beer sector's revenue was 20.043 billion yuan and 21.491 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.68% and 1.90%, while net profits were 2.519 billion yuan and 3.993 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 10.62% and 12.57% [1] - The beer market is expected to see a recovery in consumption patterns, with potential for beta configuration opportunities in the beer sector if consumer policies improve marginally [1] Group 2 - The beer industry's sales and price performance have been weak in 2025, attributed to slow recovery in consumer spending and temporary policy impacts on on-premise consumption [2] - Despite the weak beta performance, emerging brands like Yan Beer and Zhu Beer have shown strong sales and pricing performance, while overall cost elasticity continues to improve, leading to a steady increase in gross profit margins [2] - The beer sector is anticipated to maintain a steady operational trend in the second half of 2025, supported by resilient demand from middle-income consumers and a recovery in beer production [3] Group 3 - The free cash flow of leading Chinese beer companies is expected to remain at a high-quality level, with increasing dividend and yield rates, driven by significant improvements in net profit margins since 2018 [3] - The focus on high-end beer products and the gradual reduction of capital expenditures from previous peaks are expected to support the continued stability of free cash flow [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.77 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 3.198 billion, 612 million, and 587 million CNY respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.09%, 22.51%, and 23.31% [1]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by the strong performance of its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, and an increasing focus on high-end beer sales [4]. - The report highlights the company's ability to outperform industry trends, with a projected revenue growth of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 4.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.971 billion CNY, with net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 455 million and 441 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.96%, 20.18%, and 18.80% respectively [1][2]. - The company’s beer revenue in H1 2025 grew by 7.8%, with volume and price increasing by 5% and 3% respectively [2][3]. Cost and Profitability - The company experienced a decrease in cost per ton by 2.8% in Q2 2025, primarily due to lower raw material prices, leading to an increase in gross margin by 3.0 percentage points [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 2.4 percentage points, supported by stable expense ratios [3]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the growth potential of 97 Pure Draft, particularly in the South China market, where consumer demand and product structure are favorable [4]. - The company plans to enhance its marketing strategies and expand its high-end product offerings to sustain growth [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.087 billion, 6.388 billion, and 6.648 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 973 million, 1.106 billion, and 1.214 billion CNY [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][9][12] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, up 22.5% year-on-year [1][7] - The beer business experienced both volume and price increases, with revenue from beer rising by 7.8% year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of the high-end product "97 Pure Draft" [1][2][8] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the strong performance of high-end products, leading to an upward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the beer business revenue increased by 7.8%, with sales volume up 5.1% and price per ton up 2.6% [1][7] - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and cost savings [2][8] - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 6.13 billion yuan, 6.62 billion yuan, and 7.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 990 million yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan [3][4][9] Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from high-end, mid-range, and mass-market products grew by 15.9%, -17.5%, and 7.5% respectively, with high-end products accounting for 73.9% of total revenue [1][7] - The company is actively expanding its product matrix with new offerings such as the 970ml bottle of "97 Pure Draft" and other products to enhance market presence [3][9] Competitive Position - The company is positioned to expand its competitive advantage as its main competitors in the Guangdong market are undergoing adjustments [3][9]

Group 1: Zhujiang Beer (002461.SZ) - Zhujiang Beer is the leading regional beer brand in Guangdong Province, with a strong market foundation and high consumer recognition. The flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is leading product upgrades and capturing market share from competitors [6][7]. - The company has experienced continuous revenue and profit growth, with a CAGR of 7.8% in revenue and 9.2% in net profit from 2020 to 2024. The proportion of high-end products has increased significantly from 49.1% in 2019 to 70.8% in 2024 [6][7]. - The new management team, including a newly appointed chairman and general manager, is expected to drive further growth and innovation. The company has a solid reserve of high-end products and aims to expand its market presence outside Guangdong [7]. Group 2: Hanshuo Technology (301275.SZ) - Hanshuo Technology's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with a net profit of 222 million yuan, down 42% year-on-year. The company is focusing on the North American market, which shows significant growth potential [16][17]. - The global demand for retail digitalization continues to grow, with electronic shelf label (ESL) module shipments reaching 248 million units in the first half of 2025, a 56% increase year-on-year. The demand from major retailers like Walmart is expected to drive further digital upgrades in the retail sector [16][17]. - The company has established a comprehensive business system centered on electronic shelf label systems and SaaS cloud platform services, with international operations in over 70 countries [17]. Group 3: Guoci Materials (300285.SZ) - Guoci Materials reported a revenue of 2.154 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, with a net profit of 332 million yuan, up 0.38% year-on-year. The company is experiencing growth in electronic materials and new energy materials [18][19]. - The company’s six major business segments are developing synergistically, with a projected net profit of 774 million yuan, 886 million yuan, and 1.058 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [19][20]. - The company is focusing on strategic investments and acquisitions to enhance its capabilities in clinical materials and digital equipment, particularly in the biomedical materials sector [20]. Group 4: Yuhua Software (300339.SZ) - Yuhua Software achieved a revenue of 1.747 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, while the net profit decreased by 29.43% to 60 million yuan. The company is actively promoting its innovative business [22][23]. - The company’s gross margin was 23.72%, down 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, but it has optimized its expense ratios, leading to improved operational efficiency [23][24]. - The revenue from innovative business segments reached approximately 368 million yuan, accounting for 21.07% of total revenue, indicating a growing contribution from new business areas [24]. Group 5: New Dairy Industry (002946.SZ) - New Dairy Industry reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 397 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8%. The company’s low-temperature strategy is showing significant results [48][49]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has driven growth, with revenue from this channel increasing by 23% to 3.39 billion yuan, representing 66.3% of total revenue [48][49]. - The company is focusing on core markets and has achieved stable growth in key regions, with a notable increase in high-end fresh milk sales [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer [6]. Core Views - Zhujiang Beer has established itself as the leading beer brand in Guangdong Province, benefiting from a strong market foundation and consumer recognition. The company has shown consistent revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of 7.8% and a net profit CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2024 [1][2]. - The company is embracing high-end product strategies, with the proportion of high-end beer revenue increasing from 49.1% in 2019 to 70.8% in 2024, supported by a well-structured product matrix [1][2][35]. - The competitive landscape in Guangdong is shifting, with Zhujiang Beer gaining market share as Budweiser's share declines, while Yanjing Beer is also emerging through its sub-brand Liqueur [1][2][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhujiang Beer has a 40-year history and is controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a stake from Anheuser-Busch InBev, balancing innovation and stability [1][2][26]. - The company focuses on its core beer business, with 96.2% of revenue derived from beer sales in 2024 [33]. Market Analysis - Guangdong Province is a significant market for beer, with a large population and high economic development, presenting opportunities for consumption upgrades [1][2][55]. - The province has become the largest beer producer in China, surpassing Shandong, with a CAGR of 12.6% from 1982 to 2024 [51][52]. Competitive Landscape - Zhujiang Beer has rapidly developed its market share, with sales exceeding 1.4 million tons in 2024, while Budweiser's market share has been declining [60]. - Yanjing Beer, through its Liqueur brand, is also gaining traction in the market, although Qingdao Beer remains relatively weak in Guangdong [60][66]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Zhujiang Beer are estimated at 6.03 billion yuan in 2025, 6.39 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.77 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 982 million yuan, 1.105 billion yuan, and 1.237 billion yuan [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.56 yuan in 2027 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The beer production in China for the first half of 2025 reached 19.044 million kiloliters, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3% [3]. - In June 2025, the beer production from large enterprises was 4.12 million kiloliters, down 0.2% year-on-year, indicating some pressure on demand due to recent government regulations affecting consumption [4]. - Strong brands like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are expected to maintain double-digit growth in their half-year performance, with Yanjing's net profit projected to increase by 40%-50% and Zhujiang's by 15%-25% [4]. - The beer demand is anticipated to recover marginally due to the peak consumption season and positive consumer sentiment, as recent government comments have aimed to correct the negative market sentiment caused by previous regulations [4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer as potential investment targets [4].

从归母净利润的中位值来看，除兰州黄河因特定因素预计亏损0.10亿元至0.13亿元，导致归母净利润下滑外，其余三家企业 均实现了利润的正增长，行业四家整体归母净利润增速中位值达到32.50%。 随着A股市场 啤酒 行业上市公司业绩预告的陆续公布，截至7月21日，7家啤酒企业中，已有4家已披露了相关数据。 虽然燕京啤酒、ST西发和 珠江啤酒 均预计利润增长，但ST西发和珠江啤酒也暴露出一些经营问题。 首先来看ST西发，其归母净利润增速较高，预计在88.61%至182.91%之间，增速领先。 然而，ST西发报告期净利润同比增长显著，主要得益于非经常性收益的增加。一方面，公司收到华信合伙企业的债权清偿 与投资清算分配款，转回相关应收款项减值准备并确认清算收益；另一方面，全资子公司获当地政府专项补贴，计入其他收 益。上述非经常性收益合计达1817.29万元，有力拉动归母净利润增长。在此影响下，ST西发归母净利润预计在0.19亿元至 0.29亿元之间，而扣除经常性损益后的净利润区间则为560万元至840万元。 珠江啤酒二季度利润增速放缓，经营走不出华南地区 再来看珠江啤酒，其归母净利润预计约为5.75亿元至7.97亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][6]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with some companies releasing mid-year performance forecasts that are expected to alleviate demand pressure. The overall sentiment in the liquor market is improving due to positive policy expectations, leading to a rebound in stock prices for major players [3][12]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with a focus on mid-year performance. Major beer companies are expected to maintain high profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor sector: resilient leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery; and brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjiagongjiu that have potential for market share growth [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The liquor sector's revenue for the first half of the year reached 331.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. However, production has decreased by 5.8% [3][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong anti-risk capabilities and those that are actively engaging in digital transformation [3][14]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to see significant profit growth, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting net profits to increase by 40% to 50% year-on-year [15][16]. - The snack food sector is under pressure, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Qiaqia Food predicting substantial declines in net profits due to high raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [17][18]. Seasonality and Market Trends - The report notes that the beverage industry is entering a peak consumption period, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21][22]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with policies stimulating demand and improving supply dynamics [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.33 percentage points during the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025 [22].

换帅后的珠江啤酒发布了半年业绩预告。 近日，珠江啤酒披露2025年半年业绩预告，数据显示，该公司归母净利润预计约5.74亿元至6.24亿元， 比上年同期增长15%至25%。根据珠江啤酒方面解释，取得相关成绩主要得益于产品结构持续优化，同 时该公司在业绩预告中称，上半年该公司的啤酒销量和营业收入同比增长。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利:57,477.59 万元至62,475.64 万元 | 盈利:49,980.51 万元 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:15% 至25% | | | 归属于上市公司 股东的扣除非经 | 盈利:54,702.86 万元至 59,459.63 万元 | 盈利:47,567.70 万元 | | 常性损益后的净 | 比上年同期增长:15% 至 25% | | | 利润 | | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.2597元/股至 0.2823元/股 | 盈利:0.2258元/股 | 珠江啤酒2025上半年业绩预告。（截图来源：公司公告） 相比2024年同期，珠江啤酒归母净利润的增幅有所下降，去年1 ...