值得注意的是，针对永煤事件引发的市场波动，央行反应速度相对迅速，平息速度也较快。违约当周央行便开始加大流动性投放，11月11日至13日逆回购净 投放转正，合计净投放2800亿元，并在11月16日净投放6000亿元MLF。资金利率迅速从高位回落，11月17日DR007、R007基本回归违约前水平。债市负反 馈也在11月21日金融委定调维稳后逐步平息。 上周万科展期成为市场焦点，部分投资者将其类比2020年永煤违约事件，担忧债市重现当年大幅调整行情。 东方证券在最新的研报中，通过深入对比分析，得出当前情况与2020年末存在本质差异，万科展期对市场基本面预期的改变幅度有限，难以引发系统性风险 传导。 东方证券认为，此次信用事件不会显著改变债市交易主线，银行、保险等配置盘加速入场的概率较低，12月债市或延续震荡偏弱格局。 永煤冲击的本质 市场总是习惯于线性外推，将万科展期对标2020年11月的永煤违约，但这种担忧似乎缺乏根基。 东方证券表示，永煤事件当年的破坏力，源于"国企信仰"瞬间崩塌后的情绪休克，以及随之而来的理财赎回负反馈。反观当下，基本面弱化已是市场共识， 并不足以触发系统性的赎回。 东方证券在报告中表示： ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- ...

导读 壹||从2025年新发债券市场来看，Wind数据显示，信用债新发行债券中AAA级债券的金额占比更是超过 90%。相较2016年，9年时间，这一数字上升了近97%； 贰||市场违约数据的下行，也为"国企信仰"提供了底气。根据新世纪评级报告，2025年上半年债券市场 违约规模同比大幅下降73%，且主要集中于个别破产重整案件。 叁||导致AAA评级"绝对占领"市场的另一重原因，来自行业内部日趋激烈的竞争。这种"级别竞争"正在 无形中推高发行人的心理预期，也让坚守标准的评级机构陷入被动。 肆||上述头部评级机构高管认为，评级业务收费较低，评级机构理应高度重视自身的长期生存能力，而 声誉正是其关键所在，必须倍加爱惜自己的羽毛。 "其他家可以给高评级，如果你们不能给，我们就找别家做。"这一句债券发行人的话，像一根刺，扎在 王涛心里。他听得出来，对方语气平淡，却没有一点商量的余地。 王涛是国内某大型知名评级机构的高管，深耕评级行业近20年。2025年以来，他愈发明显地感受到，展 业压力增大了不少。"特别是新增的国企客户，常常开口就问'能不能给AAA'。"王涛苦笑着说，"评级 机构好像变得更加'弱势'了。" 从发行端来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the credit rating industry in China, highlighting the overwhelming dominance of AAA-rated bonds in the market, driven by factors such as "state-owned enterprise faith," changes in issuer structure, intense competition, and regulatory reforms [1][6][13]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, AAA-rated bonds accounted for over 90% of new credit bond issuances, a significant increase of nearly 97% compared to 2016 [3][9]. - The proportion of AAA-rated bonds among newly issued corporate bonds reached 85% in the first eight months of 2025, up from 40% in the same period in 2016 [5][10]. - The share of private enterprises in bond issuance has drastically decreased, with only 1% of issuers being private in 2025, down from 37% in 2016 [6][14]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The decline in market defaults has reinforced the "state-owned enterprise faith," with a 73% year-on-year decrease in bond market defaults in the first half of 2025 [15]. - Investors are increasingly relying on internal rating systems rather than external ratings due to concerns over inflated ratings [11][13]. Group 3: Rating Agency Dynamics - The competitive landscape among rating agencies has intensified, with issuers pressuring agencies to provide AAA ratings, leading to a dilution of rating standards [16][19]. - The number of rating agencies has increased, resulting in a price and rating competition that undermines industry standards [19][20]. - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified since 2021, with multiple agencies facing penalties for non-compliance, highlighting the need for improved governance and compliance within the industry [23][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of maintaining long-term survival and reputation, suggesting that agencies should focus on quality over quantity in their ratings [22][26]. - Recommendations for addressing the inflation of credit ratings include improving the rating fee model, creating a balanced competitive structure, and enhancing regulatory frameworks [26].

Core Insights - The bond rating industry in China is experiencing significant pressure, with a notable increase in the issuance of AAA-rated bonds, leading to concerns about the credibility of ratings [4][6][10] - The shift in the issuer landscape, with a decline in lower-rated private enterprises and a rise in state-owned enterprises, is contributing to the inflation of ratings [9][10][15] - Regulatory scrutiny has intensified, prompting rating agencies to reassess their practices and focus on compliance [5][17][18] Industry Trends - As of 2025, 94.22% of newly issued bonds in China's credit market are rated AAA, a significant increase from 47.78% in 2016 [4][7] - The proportion of AAA-rated corporate bonds has risen from 40% in 2016 to 85% in 2025, indicating a concentration of high ratings [4][7] - The number of private enterprises successfully issuing bonds has drastically decreased, with only 3 companies achieving AA+ ratings or higher in 2025 compared to 63 in 2016 [9][10] Rating Agency Dynamics - Rating agencies are facing increased competition, leading to a dilution of rating standards as agencies compete for business from issuers seeking higher ratings [12][14] - The internal pressure on rating agencies to provide higher ratings is exacerbated by issuers' demands for AAA ratings to lower financing costs [15][18] - The industry is witnessing a trend where external ratings are becoming less influential in investment decisions, with firms relying more on internal rating systems [8][10] Regulatory Environment - Since August 2025, regulatory bodies have imposed strict measures on rating agencies, highlighting issues of inflated ratings and compliance failures [5][17] - Recent penalties against agencies for non-compliance indicate a shift towards stricter oversight and a call for improved industry standards [17][18] - The industry is urged to enhance its reputation and focus on long-term sustainability rather than short-term gains [16][18]