Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed 6.97 against the USD, continuing its appreciation trend since the end of 2025, with expectations for RMB to officially return to the "6" range by 2026 [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The weakening of the USD index, driven by the high debt pressure in the US and the Federal Reserve's difficulty in tightening policies, creates favorable external conditions for RMB appreciation [1] - Continuous improvement in the domestic economic fundamentals, along with the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan," has significantly enhanced market confidence in RMB assets [1] Group 2: Trade Surplus Impact - Approximately $900 billion in unconverted trade surplus accumulated over the past three years is showing signs of returning, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration of the RMB appreciation has sparked market attention, with increasing discussions on whether the exchange rate against the USD can break the 7.0 mark. As of December 4, the RMB's central parity against the USD was adjusted up by 21 basis points to 7.0733, the highest level since October 14, 2024. The market sentiment is optimistic about the short-term outlook for the RMB exchange rate, driven by multiple favorable factors, including expectations of a Fed rate cut, concentrated year-end corporate settlement demand, and stable domestic economic fundamentals [3][4][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - Since November, the RMB has entered a rapid appreciation cycle against the USD, with further consolidation in December. Data shows that as of December 3, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates were 7.0661 and 7.0583, respectively, marking an increase of 506 and 595 basis points since November 20 [5][6]. - The RMB's central parity has shown a narrow upward trend in December, with fluctuations in the middle price indicating a potential central bank strategy to stabilize the exchange rate and guide two-way fluctuations [7][8]. Factors Supporting Appreciation - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has been a direct driver of the RMB's appreciation, with the USD index falling below 100, leading to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [9]. - Year-end corporate settlement demand is also contributing to the RMB's strength, with significant settlement activity expected as companies convert foreign exchange earnings into RMB. Data from the foreign exchange administration indicates a surplus in bank settlements, with a notable increase in corporate settlement intentions as the year-end approaches [10][11]. Short-term Outlook - Experts predict a high probability of the RMB breaking the 7.0 mark in the short term, supported by seasonal settlement demand and a weaker USD index due to anticipated Fed rate cuts. The market sentiment is buoyed, suggesting that the RMB may reach this threshold before the end of the year [14][15]. - However, there are uncertainties regarding the RMB's ability to maintain levels below 7.0 in the long term, with various factors influencing its stability [16]. Long-term Considerations - Looking ahead to 2026, the likelihood of significant RMB appreciation driven by a depreciating USD is considered low. Factors such as high tariffs impacting global trade and China's exports may exert downward pressure on the RMB [17][18]. - The regulatory environment is expected to provide support for the RMB, with the potential for a stable exchange rate around the 7.0 to 7.2 range, allowing for two-way fluctuations [18].

1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review - On June 16, the Wind All - A Index rose with reduced volume, opening and then oscillating higher, closing up 0.54%. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.25%, 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.68% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. In index futures, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed up 0.35%, 0.50%, 0.47%, and 0.71% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] - Detailed data on stock index futures and spot, including closing price, daily change, daily amplitude, trading volume, trading value, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided in Table 1 [7] 4. Market Outlook - In the external market, the latest US CPI data released last week was lower than expected, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. In the tariff war, the overall tone of Sino - US trade conflict tends to ease, but the second - round meeting results were not beyond expectations. The market trading logic is gradually shifting to the domestic economic fundamentals [8] - In China, multiple economic data were released today. In the scenario of "rush to export" and "rush to re - export", although the growth rate of May's foreign trade data slowed down, it still showed resilience. The actual effect of the easing tariff war may be reflected in June. The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded expectations, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened, still dragging down economic performance [8] - Overall, as Sino - US trade relations ease, the market trading logic returns to the domestic economic fundamentals. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering at a key resistance level, and the trading volume has not further broken through. The short - term callback pressure may increase. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - low position for long positions [8][9] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including the performance of major domestic indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, and inter - delivery spread trend [11][15][18][21][23] 6. Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; among them, residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% [31] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 413.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 373.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2,031.71 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 1,843.24 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [31]

Report Information - Report Type: Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Index Futures), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping) [3] Market Condition Review - On June 6, the Wind All A index declined on lower volume, ending its three - day post - holiday rally. In the spot market, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.14%, and 0.23% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the futures market, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF and IC main contracts rose 0.09% and 0.03% respectively, while the IH and IM main contracts fell 0.01% and 0.02% respectively [6]. - By sector, non - ferrous metals, communication, and petroleum and petrochemical led the gains, rising 1.16%, 1.00%, and 0.88% respectively. Beauty care, textile and apparel, and food and beverage sectors led the losses, with declines of - 1.70%, - 1.18%, and - 0.92% respectively [6]. Market Outlook - Externally, on the evening of June 5, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. From the Chinese statement and Trump's interview, the US is willing to implement the Geneva Agreement with China. China stated that it has seriously implemented the agreement, showing both sincerity and principles. The US also welcomes Chinese students to study in the US, and the two sides will hold a new round of talks soon [8]. - Domestically, the central bank will conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months, leading to a marginal loosening of overall macro - liquidity. Fundamentally, although the economic data in April slowed down due to tariff impacts, the overall economy still showed resilience. In particular, export data was better than expected, and under the background of "export rush", it may support the economic performance in the second quarter to some extent [8]. - Overall, as Sino - US trade relations ease again, market trading logic returns to the domestic economic fundamentals. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the upper resistance level, and whether trading volume can break through should be monitored. It is recommended to maintain long positions at a medium - low level. Specifically, small - and medium - cap indices have rebounded significantly this week. The CSI 1000 index has broken through the 60 - day moving average, showing an upward trend. The technology sector shows signs of a turn. Considering the remaining uncertainties in trade risks, the relative performance of IF and IM contracts is favored in the later stage [9]. Industry News - On June 5, according to Cailian Press, the central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months (91 days) through fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid methods [26]