证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 19, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Views - The overall heat of the production end is rising, with the operating rates of blast furnaces and semi-steel tires decreasing, and those of coke ovens, asphalt, PX, PTA, and all-steel tires increasing [2][29] - The real estate market is weakening marginally, with both the transaction volume of commercial housing and the land supply area decreasing [2][29] - The price trend is diverging. Crude oil, non-ferrous metals, and rebar prices are decreasing, while coking coal prices are slightly increasing. Agricultural product prices are generally rising, at the beginning of the seasonal upward trend, with pork and fruit prices decreasing and egg and vegetable prices increasing [2][29] - Shipping indices are declining, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI, indicating potential pressure on global foreign trade. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][29] Production - Coke ovens: The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.38 pct. On the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens was 74.13%, up 0.38 pct from the previous week [7] - Blast furnaces: The operating rate decreased by 0.16 pct. On the week of August 15, the operating rate of blast furnaces was 83.59%, down 0.16 pct from the previous week [7] - Rebar: The output decreased by 0.73 tons. On the week of August 15, the output of rebar was 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.06 tons [7] - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increased by 1.2 pct. On the week of August 13, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt was 32.9%, up 1.2 pct from the previous week [7] - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX increased by 2.28 pct, and that of PTA increased by 1.91 pct. On August 14, the operating rate of PX was 84.63%, up 2.28 pct from the previous week, and the operating rate of PTA was 76.7%, up 1.91 pct from the previous week [7] - All-steel tires: The operating rate increased by 2.09 pct. On the week of August 14, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 63.09%, up 2.09 pct from the previous week [8] - Semi-steel tires: The operating rate decreased by 2.28 pct. On the week of August 14, the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.07%, down 2.28 pct from the previous week [8] Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased marginally, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increased. The land supply area decreased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased. On the week of August 10, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 129.45 million square meters, down 35.64 million square meters from the previous week. The inventory-to-sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities was 119.01, up 3.95 from the previous week. The land supply area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 1168.53 million square meters, down 214.86 million square meters from the previous week. The transaction premium rate of residential land in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 2.45%, down 1.49 pct from the previous week [12] - Movie box office: It decreased by 137 million yuan. On the week of August 10, the total box office revenue of movies in China was 1615.24 million yuan, down 137.3286 million yuan from the previous week [12] - Automobiles: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 52,000 units, and the daily average wholesale sales decreased by 132,000 units. On the week of August 10, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars were 45,207 units, down 52,284 units from the previous week, and the daily average wholesale sales were 40,253 units, down 131,503 units from the previous week [14] - Shipping indices: SCFI decreased by 1.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.62%, and BDI decreased by 0.34%. On the week of August 15, SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous week. CCFI was 1193.34 points, down 7.39 points from the previous week. BDI was 2044 points, down 7 points from the previous week [17] Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.11% to $65.85 per barrel. On August 15, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.74 per barrel from the previous week [19] - Coking coal: The futures price increased by 0.33% to 1223.5 yuan per ton. On August 15, the settlement price of coking coal futures was 1223.5 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton from the previous week [19] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc changed by -0.08%, -0.46%, and -1.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 1.0%. On August 15, the closing price of LME copper futures was $9760 per ton, down $8 per ton from the previous week. The closing price of LME aluminum futures was $2603 per ton, down $12 per ton from the previous week. The closing price of LME zinc futures was $2796.5 per ton, down $37.5 per ton from the previous week. The settlement price of domestic rebar futures was 3183 yuan per ton, down 32 yuan per ton from the previous week [20] - Agricultural products: The overall price rebounded, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increasing by 0.82%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -1.76%, +1.07%, +2.37%, and -1.85% respectively compared with the previous week. On August 15, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 114.88, up 0.94 from a week ago. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.05 yuan per kilogram, down 0.36 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of eggs was 7.59 yuan per kilogram, up 0.08 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from a week ago. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits was 6.91 yuan per kilogram, down 0.13 yuan per kilogram from a week ago [22][23] Logistics - Subway passenger volume: It increased in Beijing and decreased in Shanghai. On August 15, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing was 10.5208 million person-times, up 283,300 person-times from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Shanghai was 10.6857 million person-times, down 62,900 person-times from the previous week [25] - Flight volume: Domestic flight volume increased, while international flight volume decreased. On August 16, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume was 14,822.57 flights, up 204 flights from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume was 377.57 flights, down 9.14 flights from the previous week. The seven-day moving average of international flight volume was 1891.29 flights, down 4.86 flights from the previous week [27] - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities increased. On August 16, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities was 1.68, up 0.01 from the previous week [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, with the steel industry chain recovering while asphalt, PX, and tire operating rates decreasing. The real - estate market is marginally improving, with increases in both commercial housing and land transaction areas. Price trends are also differentiated, with crude oil falling, coking coal rising significantly by 32.6%, rebar prices increasing, and non - ferrous metals remaining stable. Among agricultural products, pork, eggs, and vegetables are rising, with eggs having a large increase. Shipping index trends continue to diverge, with domestic SCFI and CCFI falling and BDI continuing to rebound sharply. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Recovers, Asphalt, PX, Tire Operating Rates Decrease - In the week of July 25, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.71 pct, blast furnace operating rate remained flat, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons. Meanwhile, the petroleum asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct, chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.81 pct, PTA remained flat, and the operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct and 0.12 pct respectively [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand: Real - Estate Market Marginally Rebounds, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - In the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area rebounded, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area rebounded, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased. Movie box office increased by 215 million yuan compared with the previous week, and automobile manufacturers' daily average retail and wholesale sales increased by 11,000 and 12,000 vehicles respectively. In the week of July 25, the shipping index SCFI fell by 3.3%, CCFI fell by 3.24%, and BDI continued to rebound significantly by 9.9% [3][15][21]. 3.3 Price: Crude Oil Falls, Coking Coal and Rebar Rise Significantly, Non - Ferrous Metals Remain Stable - In the week of July 25, Brent crude oil price fell by 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel, coking coal futures price rose by 32.6% to 1,236.5 yuan per ton. LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.02%, - 0.27%, and +0.18% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price rose by 5.07%. The overall price of agricultural products slightly decreased but remained in a seasonal upward trend, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +1.02%, +6.83%, +1.15%, and - 1.24% respectively compared with the previous week [3][23][26]. 3.4 Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Volume Decrease, Peak Congestion Index in First - Tier Cities Continues to Fall - In the week of July 25, subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, domestic and international flight volumes decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to fall [4][29][30]. 3.5 Summary: Coking Coal and Rebar Prices Rise, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, real - estate market marginal improvement, price trend differentiation, and shipping index trend divergence. Short - term focus should be on new policies, real - estate market recovery, and geopolitical changes [33].

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on multiple aspects: At the production end, the overall production of the steel industry chain declines, while the operating rates of asphalt, PTA, and tires increase; the real - estate market experiences a marginal decline with a slight drop in commercial housing transaction area; prices rise overall, with increases in crude oil, coking coal, and rebar prices, and a decrease in copper prices, and agricultural products enter a seasonal upward trend; shipping indices show a differentiated trend, with domestic SCFI and CCFI decreasing and BDI rebounding significantly; with the arrival of summer, service consumption such as tourism and entertainment grows, and both movie box - office and domestic flight volume increase. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of a new round of stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Declines, Asphalt, PTA, and Tire Operating Rates Increase - **Steel**: In the week of July 11, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.48 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 4.42 tons. The inventory increased by 0.41 tons [3][9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: In the week of July 9, the operating rate increased by 1.0 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: On July 10, the domestic chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.74 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 1.43 pct [3][9]. - **Automobile Tires**: In the week of July 10, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.81 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 2.51 pct [3][10]. 3.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Commercial Housing Transactions, BDI Hits Bottom and Rebounds - **Real Estate**: In the week of July 6, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area continued to rise, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [3][16]. - **Movie Box - Office**: In the week of July 6, it increased by 198 million yuan compared with the previous week [3][16]. - **Automobile**: In the week of July 6, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 55,700 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales decreased by 115,700 vehicles [3][20]. - **Shipping Indices**: In the week of July 11, SCFI fell by 1.71%, CCFI fell by 2.18%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 15.81% [3][22]. 3.3 Prices: Crude Oil, Coking Coal, and Rebar Rise, Agricultural Products Start to Rise - **Energy**: On July 11, the Brent crude oil price increased by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel [24]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 11, the futures price increased by 7.0% to 909.5 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: On July 11, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.92%, + 0.17%, and + 0.09% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.65% [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price increased and entered a seasonal upward trend. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.93%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by + 0.10%, - 0.28%, + 1.84%, and + 2.05% respectively compared with the previous week [27][28]. 3.4 Logistics: Increase in Domestic Flight Volume, Decline in Peak Congestion Index of First - Tier Cities - **Subway Passenger Volume**: On July 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 202,000, and that of Shanghai decreased by 214,300 [30]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flight volume increased, while that of international flights decreased [32]. - **Urban Traffic**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to decline [32].

Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: July 1, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The production side shows steady improvement, with an increase in rebar production and higher operating rates for asphalt, PX, and all-steel tires. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates remain flat, while the semi-steel tire operating rate declines. - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, with a slight rebound in commercial housing transaction area. - Price trends are divergent, with a sharp drop in crude oil prices, continuous increases in coking coal and non-ferrous metals prices, and stable agricultural product prices at a low level, potentially starting a seasonal upward trend in the short term. - Shipping indices continue to decline, with a significant drop in the BDI index. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production: Rebar Production Increases, Asphalt, PX, and All-Steel Tire Operating Rates Rise - **Steel**: The coking oven capacity utilization rate drops by 0.16 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and rebar production increases by 5.66 tons. The inventory rises by 3.28 tons [9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate increases by 1.1 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate increases by 0.46 pct, and the PTA operating rate remains flat [9]. - **Automobile Tires**: The all-steel tire operating rate increases by 0.16 pct, while the semi-steel tire operating rate decreases by 0.24 pct [10] 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Show Marginal Improvement, BDI Continues to Decline Significantly - **Real Estate**: The commercial housing transaction area rebounds, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increases. The land transaction area decreases, and the residential land transaction premium rate increases [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It increases by 158 million yuan compared to the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increase by 27,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increase by 17,100 vehicles [16]. - **Shipping Indices**: The SCFI drops by 0.43%, the CCFI rises by 2.0%, and the BDI drops significantly by 9.95% [19] 3. Prices: Crude Oil Drops Sharply, Non-Ferrous Metals and Coking Coal Rise, Agricultural Products Reach Seasonal Bottoms - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price drops by 12% to $67.77 per barrel [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price increases by 4.64% to 834 yuan per ton [21]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.26%, +1.31%, and +4.89% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price drops by 0.13% [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price stabilizes, approaching the seasonal low, and may start an upward trend in the short term. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by -0.49%, +0.41%, 0%, and -2.94% respectively compared to the previous week [24][25] 4. Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Execution Volume Increase, Peak Congestion Index in First-Tier Cities Drops - **Subway Passenger Volume**: It increases in Beijing and Shanghai [28]. - **Flight Execution Volume**: The domestic and international flight volumes both increase [30]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities drops [30] 5. Summary: Production Shows Steady Improvement, Price Trends are Divergent - The production side shows steady improvement, the real estate market shows marginal improvement, price trends are divergent, and shipping indices continue to decline. Short-term focus should be on new growth-stabilizing policies, real estate market recovery, and international geopolitical changes [33]