证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 11, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production end has differentiated heat, with the steel industry chain warming up, while asphalt and tire operating rates declining. The transaction area of commercial housing is rising slightly, and prices are showing a differentiated trend with falling crude oil prices and rising prices of coking coal, non - ferrous metals, rebar, and agricultural products. The domestic SCFI and CCFI shipping indices are continuously falling, while the BDI is slightly rising. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel Industry Chain: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity increased by 0.27 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29 pct, and rebar production increased by 10.12 tons in the week of August 8. The inventory of rebar also increased by 6.05 tons [2][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 1.4 pct in the week of August 6 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0 pct on August 7 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.1 pct in the week of August 7 [10] 2. Demand - Real Estate: In the week of August 3, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.81 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities decreased by 14.75, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 127.18 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased by 6.33% [14] - Movie Box Office: In the week of August 3, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 562 million yuan compared with the previous week [14] - Automobile: In the week of July 31, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 31,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 94,000 vehicles [18] - Shipping Index: In the week of August 8, the SCFI decreased by 3.94%, the CCFI decreased by 2.56%, and the BDI increased by 1.64% [3][21] 3. Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 4.65% to $66.43 per barrel in the week of August 7. The futures price of coking coal increased by 9.37% to 1,219.5 yuan per ton in the week of August 8 [23] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by 1.40%, 1.69%, and 3.83% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.06% on August 8 [24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products rebounded, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 0.75%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.92%, - 2.72%, + 4.74%, and - 0.71% respectively compared with the previous week on August 8 [25][27] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 281,600 and 672,900 person - times respectively in the week of August 7 [29] - Flight Volume: The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreased by 2.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 7.29 flights, and that of international flights increased by 11.86 flights in the week of August 7 [30] - Urban Traffic: The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.01 to 1.66 on August 8 [30] 5. Summary - The steel industry chain is warming up, and the price of crude oil is falling. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, with the steel industry chain recovering while asphalt, PX, and tire operating rates decreasing. The real - estate market is marginally improving, with increases in both commercial housing and land transaction areas. Price trends are also differentiated, with crude oil falling, coking coal rising significantly by 32.6%, rebar prices increasing, and non - ferrous metals remaining stable. Among agricultural products, pork, eggs, and vegetables are rising, with eggs having a large increase. Shipping index trends continue to diverge, with domestic SCFI and CCFI falling and BDI continuing to rebound sharply. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Recovers, Asphalt, PX, Tire Operating Rates Decrease - In the week of July 25, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.71 pct, blast furnace operating rate remained flat, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons. Meanwhile, the petroleum asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct, chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.81 pct, PTA remained flat, and the operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct and 0.12 pct respectively [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand: Real - Estate Market Marginally Rebounds, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - In the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area rebounded, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area rebounded, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased. Movie box office increased by 215 million yuan compared with the previous week, and automobile manufacturers' daily average retail and wholesale sales increased by 11,000 and 12,000 vehicles respectively. In the week of July 25, the shipping index SCFI fell by 3.3%, CCFI fell by 3.24%, and BDI continued to rebound significantly by 9.9% [3][15][21]. 3.3 Price: Crude Oil Falls, Coking Coal and Rebar Rise Significantly, Non - Ferrous Metals Remain Stable - In the week of July 25, Brent crude oil price fell by 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel, coking coal futures price rose by 32.6% to 1,236.5 yuan per ton. LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.02%, - 0.27%, and +0.18% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price rose by 5.07%. The overall price of agricultural products slightly decreased but remained in a seasonal upward trend, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +1.02%, +6.83%, +1.15%, and - 1.24% respectively compared with the previous week [3][23][26]. 3.4 Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Volume Decrease, Peak Congestion Index in First - Tier Cities Continues to Fall - In the week of July 25, subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, domestic and international flight volumes decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to fall [4][29][30]. 3.5 Summary: Coking Coal and Rebar Prices Rise, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, real - estate market marginal improvement, price trend differentiation, and shipping index trend divergence. Short - term focus should be on new policies, real - estate market recovery, and geopolitical changes [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on multiple aspects: At the production end, the overall production of the steel industry chain declines, while the operating rates of asphalt, PTA, and tires increase; the real - estate market experiences a marginal decline with a slight drop in commercial housing transaction area; prices rise overall, with increases in crude oil, coking coal, and rebar prices, and a decrease in copper prices, and agricultural products enter a seasonal upward trend; shipping indices show a differentiated trend, with domestic SCFI and CCFI decreasing and BDI rebounding significantly; with the arrival of summer, service consumption such as tourism and entertainment grows, and both movie box - office and domestic flight volume increase. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of a new round of stable - growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Declines, Asphalt, PTA, and Tire Operating Rates Increase - **Steel**: In the week of July 11, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.48 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 4.42 tons. The inventory increased by 0.41 tons [3][9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: In the week of July 9, the operating rate increased by 1.0 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: On July 10, the domestic chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.74 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 1.43 pct [3][9]. - **Automobile Tires**: In the week of July 10, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.81 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 2.51 pct [3][10]. 3.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Commercial Housing Transactions, BDI Hits Bottom and Rebounds - **Real Estate**: In the week of July 6, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land transaction area continued to rise, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [3][16]. - **Movie Box - Office**: In the week of July 6, it increased by 198 million yuan compared with the previous week [3][16]. - **Automobile**: In the week of July 6, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 55,700 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales decreased by 115,700 vehicles [3][20]. - **Shipping Indices**: In the week of July 11, SCFI fell by 1.71%, CCFI fell by 2.18%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 15.81% [3][22]. 3.3 Prices: Crude Oil, Coking Coal, and Rebar Rise, Agricultural Products Start to Rise - **Energy**: On July 11, the Brent crude oil price increased by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel [24]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 11, the futures price increased by 7.0% to 909.5 yuan per ton [24]. - **Metals**: On July 11, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.92%, + 0.17%, and + 0.09% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 1.65% [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price increased and entered a seasonal upward trend. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.93%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by + 0.10%, - 0.28%, + 1.84%, and + 2.05% respectively compared with the previous week [27][28]. 3.4 Logistics: Increase in Domestic Flight Volume, Decline in Peak Congestion Index of First - Tier Cities - **Subway Passenger Volume**: On July 10, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 202,000, and that of Shanghai decreased by 214,300 [30]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flight volume increased, while that of international flights decreased [32]. - **Urban Traffic**: On July 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to decline [32].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a fixed - income report released on June 9, 2025 [1] - Analysts are Liang Weichao (SAC registration number: S1340523070001) and Cui Chao (SAC registration number: S1340523120001) [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production is stable with a slight decline, real estate shows continuous marginal improvement, prices have a marginal recovery, and shipping indices continue to rise significantly. Short - term attention should be paid to the implementation of new growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and changes in US tariff policies [2][31] Group 3: Production - In the week of June 6, the capacity utilization rate of coke ovens decreased by 0.15 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 pct, and the output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 3.6 pct, the PX operating rate increased by 4.91 pct, and the PTA operating rate increased by 6.1 pct. The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 1.33 pct, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 4.39 pct [3][10][11] Group 4: Demand - In the week of June 1, the real estate market continued to improve, with the transaction area of commercial housing rising and the inventory - to - sales ratio falling. The land transaction area increased, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. The movie box office increased by 235 million yuan compared with the previous week. In the week of May 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 34,500 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 80,700 vehicles. In the week of June 6, the shipping index SCFI rose 8.09%, CCFI rose 3.34%, and BDI rose 15.16% [3][14][20] Group 5: Prices - In the week of June 6, Brent crude oil prices rose 4.02% to $66.47 per barrel, coking coal futures prices rose 5.06% to 779 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.83%, +0.12%, and +1.25% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures prices rose 0.64%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.97%, - 2.96%, +0.46%, and - 0.64% respectively compared with the previous week [3][22][24] Group 6: Logistics - In the week of June 7, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to decline. In the week of May 28, the number of domestic and international flights decreased [4][27][29]