今日早参 2026 年 1 月 30 日 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 樊俊豪 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 房地产开发/房地产服务：四个维度驱动地产股估值修复 近期 AH 地产股表现跑赢大盘指数，1 月 19-29 日 Wind 香港房地产指数上涨 7.3%，行业排名 3/11，A 股申万房地产指数上涨 5.5%，行业排名 6/31。我 们认为低估值和多维驱动是此次地产股估值修复的动力。展望后市，我们认 为港股流动性宽松、板块低估值、地产基本面边际改善预期是这轮地产股修 复的底色，当前到 3 月份是政策和"小阳春"共振的窗口期，政策预期和市 场回暖迹象都有助于地产股估值持续修复。 风险提示：政策波动风险，基本面复苏不及预期风险，部分房企经营风险。 研报发布日期：2026-01-30 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 研究员 陈慎 SAC:S0570519010002 SFC:BIO834 戚康 ...

消息面上，万科债务化解取得重大进展，"22万科MTN004""22万科MTN005"两笔合计57亿元中期票 据，展期议案均获通过。与此同时，万科第一大股东深铁集团向其提供不超过23.6亿元借款，专项用于 偿还公司公开市场债券本金与利息。华泰证券此前认为，龙头压力缓释有助于阶段性稳预期，叠加近期 地产政策预期升温，有助于带来地产股估值修复机遇。 东北证券指出，2026年开年楼市政策持续加码，央行下调结构性工具利率，保障性住房再贷款利率降至 1.25%，商办首付比例从50%降至30%，换房退税政策延期，政策力度明显增强。一线城市供需结构同 步改善，市场预期稳步修复。北京新政后新房成交放量，二手房带看与成交回升，价格跌幅显著收窄。 上海二手房定金与成交量明显回暖，挂牌量持续下降，价格趋稳。深圳二手房带看与签约量创2025年小 阳春以来新高，挂牌价降幅进一步收窄。整体来看，政策支持力度加大叠加一线城市数据改善，楼市量 价指标有望加速筑底。 内房股多数上涨，截至发稿，中国金茂(00817)涨6.62%，报1.62港元；绿城中国(03900)涨5.49%，报 10.38港元；中国海外宏洋集团(00081)涨4.2%，报2 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 华泰证券指出，21日万科发布公告，"21万科02"债券持有人会议高票通过核心展期议案（议案一、议案 四）。本次方案以"本息兑付调整+固定兑付安排+增信措施"为核心，短期压力下降。龙头房企偿债方 案落地标志着市场信用方面压力的短期纾解，叠加近期地产政策预期升温，有助于带来地产股估值修复 机遇。重点推荐：1、兼具"好信用、好城市、好产品"的"三好"地产股；2、依靠运营能力在市场调整中 掌握现金流生命线的房企；3、受益于香港市场复苏的香港本地房企；4、受益于稳健现金流、具备分红 优势的物管企业。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The performance of key real estate companies is under significant pressure, with revenue declining for the first time and gross profit and impairment further under pressure. The industry is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations for policy support and optimization of the industry landscape leading to valuation recovery. Companies with resource endowments, financing capabilities, and product advantages are likely to achieve sustained alpha [2][10][21] Summary by Sections Profitability - Revenue for key real estate companies is expected to decline by 10.0% year-on-year in 2024, with gross profit margin decreasing by 1.4 percentage points to 12.5%. The proportion of inventory impairment to total profit is expected to increase by 32.0 percentage points to 49.9% [22][25][28]. The net profit margin is projected to drop by 3.2 percentage points to 0.4%, resulting in a significant decline in return on equity (ROE) to 0.6%, the lowest in history [22][44] Liabilities - Leverage management remains cautious, with short-term debt pressure increasing. The debt structure's health is not as strong as in previous years, and the cash coverage ratio for short-term debt has decreased [7][20]. Key companies may face greater debt pressure in 2025 Q1 [7][20] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow continues to be under pressure, with significant differentiation in financing among companies. The cash inflow from sales is expected to decrease by 19.8% year-on-year in 2024, and the net cash flow from operating activities is also expected to decline [8][27][30] Operations - There is a significant decline in sales and land acquisition, with the top five companies in sales being state-owned enterprises. The sales amount for 2024 is expected to decrease significantly, and only companies with strong resource endowments and financing capabilities are likely to maintain competitive advantages [9][10][20]