2025 年 8 月 25 日 投资要点： 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 主要数据 2025 年 8 月 22 日 收盘价(元) 69.40 总股本(亿股) 4.25 流通股本(亿股) 1.50 ROE（TTM） 25.00% 12 月最高价(元) 72.99 报 告 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 买入（维持） 广合科技（001389）2025 半年报点评 公 司 点 上半年业绩快速增长，各工厂持续向好 SAC 执业证书编号： 事件：公司2025上半年营业收入为24.25亿元，同比增长42.17%；归母净利润、 扣非后归母净利润分别为4.92和4.78亿元，同比分别增长53.91%和47.78%， 处于业绩预告中枢区间，符合预期。 评 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声 ...

AI算力军备竞赛延伸至战场。 一块小小的电路板（PCB），在A股市场爆发出惊人的能量。 Wind统计显示，截至8月22日，中信PCB指数自4月低点以来最大涨幅超过140%。 今年以来，A股PCB板块近20只个股涨幅超过1倍。与市值一路高歌猛进相呼应的是，头部PCB产业链公司的业绩也在持续增长。 这背后的主要推手便是AI。AI浪潮下，算力需求的爆炸式增长，成为PCB行业成长的最大。 PCB板块行情发力的主要逻辑是什么？行情是否具有持续性？经过持续上涨，是否已呈现局部泡沫？中长期而言，PCB板块的产业趋势和配置价值如何？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 永赢基金权益投资部基金经理任桀 上银混合发起式基金经理赵治烨、惠军 德邦基金基金经理雷涛 在上述基金经理看来，这轮PCB行情确实有坚实的产业逻辑，AI算力需求的爆发性增长是核心驱动力，行情或具备戴维斯双击的潜力。 大家普遍认为，虽然近期板块涨幅较大，但对应后续的盈利预期，当前板块PE并不高。市场并非在对整个PCB板块进行无差别炒作，而是在为那些能够 切实分享到AI红利、拥有技术壁垒和客户壁垒的公司的"确定性"支付溢价。 此外，基金经理们认为，从中报数据来看，行业向好 ...

消息面上，8月15日国家统计局数据显示7月高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.3%，集成电路制造增长26.9%，印证硬科技产业链景气度；同期美国云厂商上调 资本开支指引，谷歌2025年资本开支增至850亿美元，Meta指引2026年维持高投入，带动算力需求预期升温。 截至2025年8月22日 11:03，中证科创创业50指数强势上涨3.95%，成分股盛美上海20cm涨停，海光信息上涨17.08%，寒武纪上涨11.29%，中芯国际、润泽科 技等个股跟涨。科创创业ETF嘉实(588400)上涨4.02%。 流动性方面，科创创业ETF嘉实盘中换手3.13%，成交5586.96万元。拉长时间看，截至8月21日，科创创业ETF嘉实近1周日均成交4669.44万元。规模方面， 科创创业ETF嘉实最新规模达17.41亿元。 从收益能力看，截至2025年8月21日，科创创业ETF嘉实自成立以来，最高单月回报为29.42%，最长连涨月数为3个月，最长连涨涨幅为34.92%，上涨月份平 均收益率为5.69%。截至2025年8月21日，科创创业ETF嘉实近3个月超越基准年化收益为4.78%。 科创创业ETF嘉实(588400)紧密跟踪中 ...

Market Overview - The market rebounded yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and STAR Market Index reaching new highs for the year. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the sixth consecutive day of trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23% [1]. Fund Flow Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the trading activity remains high, with foreign and insurance capital likely to be the main sources of incremental capital moving forward. The trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2 trillion yuan last week, with active trading by retail investors reaching a year-to-date high. The number of private fund registrations was also high, with 666 new products registered in early August, a 6% increase from July. Insurance capital's market entry ratio is expected to rise by the second quarter of 2025, with equity assets in life insurance exceeding the previous high in Q3 2024, although still below policy limits. Additionally, foreign capital trading activity has rebounded, but net inflows from foreign institutional investors have not yet formed a trend [2]. Technology Sector Developments - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlighted the rise of liquid cooling technology in server cooling solutions, driven by increasing computational power demands and chip power consumption. The global AI liquid cooling market is projected to reach $8.6 billion by 2026. Among the various liquid cooling methods, cold plate liquid cooling is currently the most mature due to its minimal impact on equipment and infrastructure while providing significant cooling efficiency. The market for liquid-cooled servers in China is expected to grow by 67% year-on-year in 2024, according to IDC [3]. Strategic Focus on Manufacturing - Guojin Securities emphasized the importance of developing new quality productivity tailored to local conditions, leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system. This includes enhancing basic research intensity and addressing key technology bottlenecks in integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, medical equipment, servers, instruments, basic software, industrial software, and advanced materials. The goal is to modernize the industrial system, upgrade traditional industries, and foster emerging industries while maintaining a reasonable share of manufacturing. The focus will be on technological innovation to drive high value-added and high-tech manufacturing, attracting quality resources to the sector, and enhancing brand development and protection to increase the manufacturing sector's value [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Dongwei Technology (688700) [1] Core Views - The demand for high-end electroplating equipment is expected to increase due to the CoWoP technology combined with HDI, positioning the company to benefit significantly [7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in HDI electroplating equipment demand, supported by its advanced technology and product offerings [7] Financial Forecasts - Projected total revenue (in million RMB) for 2023A is 909.23, with a decline of 10.13% year-on-year, and is expected to rise to 1,266.38 by 2027E, reflecting a growth of 11.45% [1] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is 151.43 for 2023A, with a significant drop of 29.01% year-on-year, expected to recover to 224.36 by 2027E, showing a growth of 21.48% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.51 for 2023A, increasing to 0.75 by 2027E [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 94.25, with future projections of 206.03 for 2024A, decreasing to 63.61 by 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 47.83 RMB, with a market capitalization of 14,272.54 million RMB [5] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 8.15 and a one-year price range of 16.95 to 51.00 RMB [5] Key Technologies and Market Trends - The CoWoP process is emerging as a mainstream packaging technology, simplifying processes and reducing transmission losses, which is crucial for the PCB industry [7] - The MSAP and SAP processes are identified as key technologies for achieving HDI, driving the demand for high-value electroplating equipment [7] - The company’s horizontal electroplating equipment is validated by leading customers, indicating a promising domestic replacement trend [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, which has seen a continuous rise, driven by the significant growth in the AI application sector and the demand for computing power [1][2] - Stone Technology reported a revenue of 7.903 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 78.96%, while its net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.55% to 678 million yuan [1] - First Shanghai Securities expresses optimism regarding the sustained high growth in computing power demand driven by AI applications, indicating a pivotal moment for the proliferation of AI applications both domestically and internationally [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF tracks the Sci-Tech 50 Index, with a significant concentration in the electronics sector (63.74%) and the pharmaceutical and biological sector (11.78%), totaling 75.52% [2] - The index encompasses various sub-sectors, including semiconductors, medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment, indicating a high content of hard technology [2] - Investors are encouraged to continue monitoring the long-term development prospects of China's hard technology sector, as the current position of the Sci-Tech 50 Index suggests potential growth opportunities [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong performance with major indices rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.47% and the ChiNext Index up by 2.14% [2] - The brokerage sector experienced significant inflows, with nearly 12 billion yuan net inflow, leading to a 3.57% increase in the sector [2][6] - The real estate sector also saw gains, with specific stocks like Quzhou Development and Zhejiang Dongri achieving consecutive daily limits [4] Group 2: Brokerage Sector Performance - Longcheng Securities reported a projected net profit of 1.335 to 1.407 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 85% to 95% [6] - The increase in margin trading balances reflects investors' growing confidence in market recovery and willingness to take risks [6] - The upcoming disclosures of semi-annual reports from listed brokerages are expected to reveal significant improvements across various business segments [6] Group 3: AI Industry Developments - AI-related stocks, including liquid cooling servers and PCBs, saw a collective rise, with companies like Chuanhuan Technology and Jintian Co. achieving 20% gains [7] - The release of advanced AI models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, is expected to stimulate demand for computing power and benefit the ASIC supply chain [7][8] - NVIDIA's rapid expansion in ASIC development is anticipated to drive strong demand for AI-related PCBs and components [8][9] Group 4: Specific Stock Movements - Cambrian, which recently reached a historical high, experienced a decline of over 4% amid profit-taking and market corrections [10] - The company issued a statement addressing misleading information circulating about its orders and revenue forecasts, urging investors to make rational decisions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the PCB equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for computing power is increasing, driving capital expenditure in the PCB industry. According to IDC, global server sales are expected to reach $95.2 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 134.1%. The global server market is projected to grow to $366 billion in 2025, up 44.6% year-on-year. This demand is expected to boost the PCB market, which is forecasted to reach 73.565 billion yuan in 2024, a 5.8% increase, and 78.562 billion yuan in 2025, a 6.8% increase [1][2] - The core processes in PCB production include drilling, exposure, and testing, which are critical for high-end board processing. The value of drilling equipment accounts for approximately 20% of the entire industry chain, while exposure and testing equipment account for 17% and 15%, respectively. The increasing demand for multilayer boards and HDI boards is driving the need for high-precision drilling and exposure technologies [2][3] - The emergence of CoWoP technology simplifies the packaging process by allowing chips to be directly packaged onto PCB boards, requiring high-density wiring and precision. This shift towards high-density and high-precision PCBs will increase the value of related equipment in drilling, exposure, and plating processes [3] Summary by Sections - **Market Demand**: The PCB market is expected to grow significantly due to the rising demand for servers, with a notable increase in the production value of server/storage applications [1][2] - **Production Processes**: Key production processes such as drilling, exposure, and testing are becoming more complex, necessitating advancements in equipment and technology [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in core PCB production processes, particularly in drilling (e.g., Dazhu CNC), exposure (e.g., Chipbond), and plating (e.g., Dongwei Technology) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector has shown remarkable performance since the second half of 2024, driven by trends in the AI industry and strong demand for computing power, with the STAR Market Chip Index achieving a return of 71.86% over the past year [1][9]. Group 1: STAR Market Chip Index Performance - The STAR Market Chip Index (000685) was launched in June 2022 and includes stocks related to semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [2]. - As of August 8, 2024, the STAR Market Chip Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index and other representative indices of the STAR Market, such as the STAR 50 and STAR 100 [9]. - The index consists of 50 constituent stocks, with the top ten weighted stocks including Cambricon, SMIC, and Haiguang Information, covering various segments of the semiconductor industry [5][9]. Group 2: ETF Performance and Market Statistics - There are currently eight STAR Market Chip ETFs with a total scale of approximately 37.57 billion yuan, with the top three being from Harvest Fund, Huaan Fund, and Huitianfu Fund [1][17]. - The average annual return of five STAR Market Chip ETFs established before 2025 is 11% [1]. - The most liquid ETF, Harvest STAR Market Chip ETF, has an average daily trading volume exceeding 1.9 billion yuan this year [16].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The liquid cooling market is expected to reach a scale of over 100 billion, driven by advancements in chip technology and increasing computing power demands [1][2] - Liquid cooling technology is gradually replacing air cooling, expanding its application from GPUs to switches and large-scale overseas data centers [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: - Profit expectations have been revised upwards, leading to changes in supply dynamics. Taiwanese manufacturers are seeking outsourcing opportunities in mainland China, reflecting an urgent demand shift [3][4] - The liquid cooling technology is projected to see rapid penetration in data centers due to lower operational costs (OPEX) and strict energy consumption policies [3][8] - **Market Performance**: - The liquid crystal sector has shown strong performance, with leading companies reaching new highs and new entrants emerging [5] - Companies providing complete product solutions, such as Invec and Shengjing Environment, are seen as having greater commercial potential compared to those offering only a full range of products [5] - **Key Players in the Domestic Liquid Crystal Industry**: - The largest and most comprehensive supplier in the domestic liquid crystal industry has clear overseas order expectations, indicating significant performance elasticity [6] - Adaptation Environment, while smaller than Invec, has potential for growth through Southeast Asian orders and gradual entry into the North American market [6] - **Future Prospects of Key Companies**: - Keke New Source is expected to enter the AV product field and has a partnership with Dongguan Zhaoke for thermal materials, with projected performance exceeding 200 million after integration [7] Additional Important Insights - **Liquid Cooling in Data Centers**: - The application of liquid cooling technology in data centers is essential due to the increasing thermal power of AI chips and the need for lower PUE values [8][9] - The global trend towards stricter energy efficiency standards is pushing the adoption of liquid cooling solutions [8] - **NVIDIA's Liquid Cooling Supply Chain**: - NVIDIA's supply chain is structured in a pyramid, with NVIDIA at the top, followed by OEM and ODM manufacturers, and specialized cooling module suppliers at the base [12] - **Market Trends in North America**: - Major North American cloud providers are accelerating the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, with companies like Meta and Google leading the way [16] - **Impact of Domestic Chip Clusters**: - The iteration of domestic chip clusters is opening new liquid cooling solutions, significantly impacting the global market [17] - **Liquid Cooling in Energy Storage**: - Liquid cooling temperature control systems are becoming mainstream in the energy storage sector, with market share expected to reach 53% by 2024 [20] - **Potential for Data Center Liquid Cooling**: - Data center liquid cooling technology is expected to see both volume and price increases, with companies like Invec and Shengjing Kecai recommended for significant growth [21]