Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline on January 8, with the computer ETF (159998) achieving a trading volume exceeding 120 million yuan, and stocks like Baoxin Software, Weining Health, and Zhongke Xingtu leading in gains [1] - The computer ETF has experienced a net inflow of nearly 160 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Computer Theme Index, which includes stocks from companies involved in information technology services, application software, system software, and computer hardware [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities forecasts an improvement in the computer sector's fundamentals due to macroeconomic recovery, AI application implementation, and personnel adjustments, with institutional holdings at historical lows suggesting potential future growth [2] - Huatai Securities anticipates a significant increase in AI computing power demand by 2026, highlighting investment opportunities in both domestic and overseas computing supply chains [2] - In the optical communication sector, demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise rapidly by 2026, benefiting leading manufacturers and upstream core material segments like optical chips [2]

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：新高待破 | 2 | | 铜：算力需求提振，价格强势 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 7 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：新高待破 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金 ...

2026年1月7日，三大股指红盘向上，截至09:54，中证数字经济主题指数上涨0.90%，成分股兆易创新上 涨8.46%，中微公司上涨7.12%，华润微上涨5.78%，晶合集成上涨5.09%，拓荆科技上涨4.48%。数字经 济ETF上涨1.05%。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表 基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资需谨 慎） 据Wind数据显示，流动性方面，截至1月6日，数字经济ETF近1年日均成交2084.29万元。规模方面，数 字经济ETF近2周规模增长1365.67万元，实现显著增长。 消息面上，1月5日，半导体设备巨头阿斯麦续涨超5%，市值再创历史新高；台积电涨超3%，再创历史 新高，市值达1.7万亿美元。三星电子与SK海力士计划在今年一季度将服务器DRAM价格提升60%至 70%。黄仁勋在CES演讲上展示了英伟达新一代AI平台Rubin，包含六款新型芯片，推理算力是 Blackwell的5倍，已进入全面生产阶段。 兴业证券认为，AI浪潮正推动算力需求爆发，带动服务器、AI芯片、光芯片、存储、PCB板等硬件环节 ...

2026 年 01 月 07 日 安 期 货 研 铜：算力需求提振，价格强势 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 英伟达 CFO 称，到 2026 年末，数据中心芯片营收"肯定"会比去年 10 月预测的 5000 亿美元高，黄 仁勋称中国客户需求强劲。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国 2025 年 11 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量为 2526194.63 吨，环比增加 3.05%，同比增长 13.13%。（SMM） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 105,320 | 3.92% | 104600 | -0.68% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,255 | 1.28% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 644,324 | 286,992 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：新高待破 | 3 | | 铜：算力需求提振，价格强势 | 5 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：铁锂加工费提涨，市场情绪偏强 | 16 | | 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 | 18 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 23 | | 焦炭：矛盾积累，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：矛盾积累，宽幅震 ...

科创板100ETF（588120）跟踪的是科创100指数（000698），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从科创板 中选取市值较大、流动性较好的100只证券作为指数样本，覆盖了新一代信息技术、生物医药、新材料 等多个高新技术领域，以反映中国科技创新企业的整体表现和发展趋势。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 1月6日，科创板100ETF（588120）涨超1.2%，资金面看，连续3日资金净流入，科技巨头资本开支稳健 性受关注。 中泰证券指出，当前AI行情与2000年互联网泡沫存在本质差异：科技巨头盈利扎实、资本开支与现金 流匹配、债务杠杆可控；算力需求真实且面临能源硬约束，资本开支更具"防御性"战略色彩。算力需求 的真实性与"短缺经济"特征明显，用于训练最新LLMs的计算量以每年4~7倍的速度增长，而硬件效率提 升速度远不及此。能源瓶颈也构成硬约束，预计前沿LLMs训练的电力需求可能以每年2.2倍至2.9倍的速 度增长。 ...

中泰证券指出，当前AI行情与2000年互联网泡沫存在本质差异：科技巨头盈利扎实、资本开支与现金 流匹配、债务杠杆可控；算力需求真实且面临能源硬约束，资本开支更具"防御性"战略色彩。尽管短期 存在波动与估值约束，且生产力提升呈现"J曲线效应"存在滞后，但AI作为通用技术革命的长期潜力不 容忽视，其行情更可能呈现产业趋势投资与波段机会交织的复杂特征。算力需求的真实性与"短缺经 济"特征明显，用于训练最新LLMs的计算量以每年4至7倍的速度增长，而硬件效率提升速度远不及此。 能源瓶颈也构成硬约束，预计前沿LLMs训练的电力需求可能以每年2.2倍至2.9倍的速度增长。科技巨头 的资本开支体现财务克制，三大云厂商R&D支出与资本开支占总收入比重趋于收敛，显示投入节奏稳 健。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 科创板100ETF（588120）跟踪的是科创100指数（000698），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从科创板 中选取市值较大、流动性较好的100只证券作为指数样本，覆盖了新一代信息技术、生物医药、新材料 等多个高新技术领域，以反映中国科技创新企业的整体表现和发展趋势。 ...

分析师将这一轮需求拆解为两大组成部分： 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 人 工 智 能 算 力 需 求 爆 发 的 始 末 首先，让我们把时间拉回 2023 年，也就是人工智能热潮的起点。彼时，人工智能作为云计算 领域的全新应用场景，催生了该行业的爆发式增长，而当时科技巨头们的算力储备，根本不足 以满足激增的市场需求。 第一，随着人工智能技术的问世，数千家企业纷纷开始开发面向智能设备的新应用，同时对现 有应用进行人工智能化改造。 想必你也注意到，过去几年里，应用商店（App Store 和谷歌 应用商店）中涌现出了大量新应用。而这些应用的运行，正是云计算需求的核心来源。这些企 业基本不会自建数据中心，而是选择在云计算市场租赁算力。 从财报数据来看，亚马逊（Amazon, AMZN）的表现可圈可点。人工智能热潮持续发酵，上 季度云计算业务增速加快，同比增幅达到 20%；营收与利润双双创下历史新高。 更需注意的是，人工智能技术的应用本身，就需要消耗海量的内存与算力资源。 目前，公司市值达 2.4 万亿美元，市盈率略高于 32 倍。整体而言，财报数据表现优异，展现 出一家健康成长的企业面貌。但问题在于，所有财务 ...

Core Insights - The software ETF (515230) has risen over 1.4%, driven by the demand for computing power due to advancements in large model technology [1] - OpenAI's release of the GPT-5.2 series marks a shift in large model competition from parameter scale to ecological differentiation, with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic each excelling in different areas [1] - The enhancement of reasoning capabilities and professional knowledge work is expected to benefit enterprise applications, transitioning AI from high-dimensional search engines to autonomous execution [1] Industry Trends - The recent intensive releases from Google and OpenAI indicate that the capabilities of large models have not yet reached their peak, leading to a continuous increase in training and reasoning computing power demand, which is favorable for the computing sector [1] - The importance of proprietary data in the industry is rising, as general models address "how to think," while enterprise data determines "what to think" [1] - Enterprise-level AI applications face cost challenges, with the high pricing of GPT-5.2 Pro potentially limiting widespread adoption, but the capability improvements are expected to drive the industry from simple RAG Q&A to complex business process execution [1] ETF Overview - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects listed company securities involved in software development, sales, and services, covering various sub-sectors such as operating systems, application software, and cybersecurity [1] - This index exhibits significant growth and innovation characteristics, effectively reflecting the market dynamics and technological development trends within the software industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changguang Huaxin (688048.SH) announced unusual stock trading fluctuations, highlighting a recent increase in computing power demand and the uncertainty surrounding the contribution of its optical communication products to sales and profits [1] Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - The company has achieved mass production of its 100G EML and has begun sample delivery for its 200G EML, while 100G VCSEL, 100mW CW DFB, and 70mW CWDM4 DFB chips have reached mass production shipping levels [1] - Despite these advancements, the contribution of these products to the company's sales and profits remains highly uncertain [1] Group 2: Business Risks and Market Uncertainties - The company's optical communication business is significantly influenced by various factors, leading to considerable uncertainty in future development [1] - Geopolitical complexities may provide short-term opportunities in international markets, but the company's overseas business layout is still in its infancy, posing risks of underperformance and business obstacles [1] - Supply chain and raw material risks may arise during business development, particularly due to reliance on specific materials like indium phosphide, which could affect production delivery and cost control if supply chain fluctuations or changes in the international trade environment occur [1] - The demand in the optical communication market is closely tied to the progress of data center construction and global computing power demand; a slowdown in downstream investment or lower-than-expected demand could negatively impact the company's performance [1]