——地方债周报 一、一级市场情况 【净融资】本周地方债共发行 20 亿元，净融资减少 312 亿元。本周地方债发行 量为 20 亿元，偿还量为 52 亿元，净偿还为 32 亿元。发行债券中，新增专项债 20 亿元，无新增一般债、再融资一般债、再融资专项债。 【发行期限】本周 20Y 地方债发行占比最高（59%），10Y 及以上发行占比为 84%，与上周相比有所下降。5Y、10Y 和 20Y 和地方债发行占比分别为 16%、 25%和 59%，其中 20Y 地方债发行占比上升较多；10Y 地方债发行占比下降较 多，环比下降约 11 个百分点。 证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 26Q1 地方债已披露将发行 1.68 万亿元 【发行利差】本周地方债加权平均发行利差为 24.3bp，较上周有所走阔。其中 20Y 地方债加权平均发行利差最高，达 25.3bp。本周发行的 5Y、10Y、20Y 的 地方债加权平均发行利差走阔。本周湖南、广东、内蒙古等地发行地方债，其 中湖南和广东加权平均发行利差超过 20bp。 【募集资金投向】截至本周末，2025 年以来新增专项债募集资金投向主要为冷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds. In the primary market, there are changes in net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and fundraising directions. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads and trading volume of local government bonds have their own characteristics. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 40 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 28.1 billion yuan, including 6 billion yuan in new general bonds, 29.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 0.9 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.2 billion yuan and a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [1][3] - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (36%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 87%, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 5%, 36%, 18%, 7%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20 - year local government bonds decreased by about 14 percentage points. [1] - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2,298.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds, including 2,000 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou have 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1.2 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1,366.8 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025. [2][19] - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 20.7bp, widening compared to the previous week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of the rest widened. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp. [2] - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds since 2025 have been cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve (+17.1%) increased significantly, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (-8.5%) decreased significantly. [2] - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in October and November, the total disclosed issuance scale for the fourth quarter is about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Additionally, 18 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance scale of about 1.07 trillion yuan, including 571.6 billion yuan in January. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 439.6 billion yuan and 625.7 billion yuan respectively. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spread of 1 - year local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds reached 18.9bp and 18.7bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 79% and 55% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in strong and medium - strength regions were relatively high, both above 16bp, and the 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region also had relatively high secondary spreads. [5] - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous week. The local government bonds in Ningxia and Shenzhen had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 432 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.79%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local government bonds was large, reaching 40.5 billion yuan; the turnover rates of Ningxia and Shenzhen's local government bonds were relatively high, both reaching 2.3%. [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that there is still room for the narrowing of local government bond spreads. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, capital investment directions, and trading volumes [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bond issuance reached 270.7 billion yuan, with net financing increasing by 12.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 178 billion yuan, including 17 billion yuan in new general bonds, 154.9 billion yuan in new special bonds, 77.3 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 21.5 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local government bonds was the highest at 24%, and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 63%, showing a decline compared to last week. The issuance proportion of 5 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 30 - year bonds decreased by about 9 percentage points [1][13]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, 24.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2.0536 trillion yuan in special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan having 251.1 billion yuan, 132.4 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 116.1 billion yuan respectively [2][17]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 17.5bp, lower than last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 22.8bp. Except for 5 - year and 30 - year bonds, the weighted average issuance spreads of other terms narrowed. Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Shandong had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp [2][25]. - **Fund - Raising Investment Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of new special bond funds raised since 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (16%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). In 2025, the proportion of land reserve investment increased by 16.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 8.0% [2][29]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 33 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in October, the total planned issuance in the fourth quarter is about 1.3 trillion yuan, with 705 billion yuan in November. Next week, 91.6 billion yuan of local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a repayment of 127.6 billion yuan and a net repayment of 36 billion yuan, a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3][32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 20 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spreads of all terms widened. The secondary spreads of 3 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year bonds reached 19.6bp, 18.7bp, and 18.5bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, ranging from 18 - 21bp, and the 15 - 20 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [5][36]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Hebei and Guizhou had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 385.3 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.72%. Hebei had a large trading volume of 42.9 billion yuan, and the turnover rates of Hebei and Guizhou were the highest, reaching 1.8% and 1.7% respectively [5][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].