2026 年地方债投资策略 地方债六问六答 glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 19 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | | | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 14.3 万亿元隐债化债压力如何？2026 年-2028 年之前地方政府实际需要消化的隐性债务 总额仅为 0.94 万亿元。2025 年化债地方债发行期限进一步拉长，超长期占比大幅上升至 68%，主要是增加了 30Y 和 20Y 地方债的供给。 专项债募集资金投向有何变化？2025 年 1-10 月投向基建类的市政建设及产业园区基础 设施、交通基础设施资金规模大幅下滑明显，两者占比较 2024 年大幅下降 12%。 2026 年政府债供给节奏如何？我们预计 2026 年 1-3 ...

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the third quarter remained loose, with a significant strengthening in equities, leading to an increase in market risk appetite. However, the bond market showed weak performance due to the impact of new fund sales fee regulations and the introduction of the ticket interest value-added tax policy on August 8, which resulted in a higher implied tax rate for newly issued local government bonds [3][12] - In the third quarter of 2025, funds increased their holdings in local bonds with maturities of 1 year or less and 3-5 years, focusing on short-duration high-coupon old bonds and benefiting from a relatively steep yield curve [4][21] - The top 10 holdings of local bonds by funds were primarily general bonds, mainly from Jiangsu and Anhui, with remaining maturities mostly within 1 year [4][33] Group 2 - As of the end of October, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 19,910 billion, with a progress rate of 99.55%. The cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 6,900 billion, with a progress rate of 86.25%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 39,646 billion, with a progress rate of 90.10% [5][36] - The supply of local bonds increased in late October, improving secondary market transaction conditions, with insurance companies showing a daily net purchase of around 60 billion [6][37] - The planned issuance scale for November is 7,284 billion, significantly increased from the previous week's estimate of 3,438 billion, indicating a shift in local bond issuance strategies [5][38]