地方经济增长
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洞见 | “十五五”时期地方经济增长从三方面找动力
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-09-08 02:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, local economic growth can seek new momentum from three aspects: supply side, demand side, and enterprise development [2][3] Group 2 - From the supply side, the article highlights the need to focus on new growth points in industries. The contribution of agriculture to GDP has decreased from 9.5% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 7.2% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," while the service sector's contribution has increased significantly, reaching 56.7% by the end of 2024, up 11.6 percentage points from the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] Group 3 - On the demand side, the article points out that service consumption is becoming a more direct driver of local economic growth compared to goods consumption. In 2024, national service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2%, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 7.4% [6][7] Group 4 - The article discusses the importance of high-quality enterprise development as a source of economic momentum. It emphasizes the need for innovation in enterprises, including original technology, model innovation, and concept innovation, to enhance market responsiveness and efficiency [8][9]
新财观|“十五五”时期地方经济增长从三方面找动力
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 00:57
Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The article emphasizes the need for local economies to identify new growth drivers during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on supply-side, demand-side, and enterprise development [1][5][6] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP is declining, with industrial value added expected to account for 30% of GDP by 2024, down 9.3 percentage points from the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The service sector has become the core driver of economic growth, projected to account for 56.7% of GDP by the end of 2024, increasing by 11.6 percentage points since the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 2: Role of Service Industry - The service industry is crucial for economic resilience and sustainability, requiring local governments to enhance service systems and urban service capabilities [2][3] - Regions with rapid service industry revenue growth, such as Hainan, Fujian, and Shandong, should prioritize service sector development as a key component of modern industrial systems [2][4] - The article highlights the need for western regions to balance industrial growth with the development of local service industries, particularly in production-related and lifestyle services [2][4] Group 3: Consumer Demand and Trends - Consumer demand is shifting towards service consumption, with service retail expected to grow by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail growth by 3 percentage points [3][4] - The article notes a transformation in consumption patterns, driven by demographic changes and technological integration, leading to new consumption trends such as the "single economy" and "silver economy" [4][5] - Local governments are encouraged to innovate service offerings and consumption scenarios to stimulate economic growth [4][5] Group 4: Enterprise Development and Innovation - The vitality and development level of market entities are critical for local economic quality and efficiency, necessitating a focus on innovation across various sectors [5][6] - The article stresses the importance of both original technology and model innovation, with traditional industries also needing to embrace technological upgrades for efficiency gains [5][6] - Regional disparities in R&D investment are highlighted, with eastern regions leading in R&D spending, while western regions show strong growth in external R&D funding [6]
地方经济增长动力从何而来?
申万宏源研究· 2025-09-03 09:22
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on identifying new growth points in industries, expanding consumption, and improving enterprise efficiency to ensure sustainable economic growth in China [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development Goals - The economic growth in China is transitioning from high-speed to stable growth, necessitating a shift in how local governments set growth targets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - The contribution of consumption to GDP has increased, with its share rising from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - Local governments should set realistic growth targets based on local resources, industry foundations, and development realities, ensuring that these targets are both feasible and positively guiding [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Development and Structural Changes - The service sector has become a core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP increasing from approximately 45% during the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 60% currently [10][11]. - Local governments are encouraged to focus on the service industry, especially in lower-tier cities, to enhance employment and improve living standards [11][12]. - The industrial structure is shifting, with traditional industries declining while high-end manufacturing is on the rise, necessitating targeted policies to support these transitions [12][13]. Group 3: Consumption as a Growth Driver - The article highlights the importance of consumer purchasing power and market demand as fundamental to economic growth, advocating for a focus on consumption-driven growth [16][17]. - Service consumption is identified as having a more direct impact on local economies compared to goods consumption, which often benefits external regions [17][18]. - The growth of service consumption is expected to continue, with a projected increase in service retail sales by 6.2% in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales [18][19]. Group 4: Innovation and Enterprise Development - The vitality and development level of enterprises directly influence the quality and efficiency of local economic operations, making enterprise development a priority [21][22]. - Local governments should promote both technological and model innovations within enterprises to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [23][24]. - There is a need for tailored policies that consider regional characteristics to boost the innovation capabilities of enterprises across different areas [25][26].