把握趋势，顺势而为，积极有为，向产业新增长点要动力，向需求扩容消 费提质要动力，向企业效率提升要动力，全面夯实"十五五"时期我国经 济增长的新动能 在"十五五"规划编制过程中，科学合理确定经济发展目标和增长动力是各地方政府 亟须解决的关键问题。"十四五"时期我国经济增长内外部环境较为复杂。在外部环境方 面，有地缘政治和大国博弈等外部因素扰动；在内部环境方面，自"十二五"以来，经济 动力结构与产业结构调整虽为经济的长远发展奠定基础，但也在一定程度上使经济增长 动能出现阶段性减弱。当前，我国经济正进入新一轮平稳增长期，各地在制定"十五 五"时期发展目标时，须深入科学分析"十五五"期间的经济发展环境和增长条件，把握 趋势，顺势而为，积极有为。要向产业新增长点要动力，向需求扩容消费提质要动力， 向企业效率提升要动力，全面夯实"十五五"时期我国经济增长的新动能。 一、新时期要创新发展理念，科学合理制定增长目标 作者 ：杨成长系申万宏源研究首席经济学家，全国政协委员；龚芳系申万宏源研究政策研究室主任，首席研究员；方思元系申万宏源研究 高级研究员 顺势而为 积极有为 当前，我国经济正进入新一轮平稳增长期，各地在制定"十五五 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for local governments to scientifically analyze the economic development environment and growth conditions during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to establish reasonable economic growth targets and new growth drivers [1][2][3] - The economic growth in China is expected to enter a new phase of stable growth, with domestic demand becoming the core driving force for economic growth, as consumption's contribution to GDP has increased from 50% at the end of the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 57% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - The importance of consumer purchasing power and market demand is highlighted, suggesting that local governments should focus on opportunities from the consumption side to drive economic growth [1][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the shift in growth models from scale expansion to quality improvement, emphasizing the need for innovation-driven and endogenous growth in the face of rising external uncertainties [2][4] - It is noted that the service sector has become a core driver of economic growth, with its contribution to GDP increasing from approximately 45% during the "11th Five-Year Plan" to 60% currently, while the industrial sector's contribution has decreased [7][11] - The need for local governments to adjust their policies and resources to focus on sectors with potential and flexibility is emphasized, particularly in the context of the service industry's rapid growth compared to industrial growth [10][12] Group 3 - The article suggests that local governments should adopt a pragmatic approach in setting economic growth targets, balancing between not being overly ambitious and not being pessimistic [4][5] - It highlights the necessity of identifying new growth points in industries and enhancing consumer demand to create a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [5][13] - The importance of enhancing the vitality and development level of business entities is stressed, as they directly influence the quality and efficiency of local economic operations [18][19] Group 4 - The article points out the need for local governments to focus on the innovation capabilities of enterprises, as the vitality and development level of business entities are crucial for economic growth [18][20] - It emphasizes the dual focus on technological innovation and business model innovation to enhance enterprise efficiency and competitiveness [20][21] - The article also discusses the importance of supporting both traditional and emerging enterprises in their innovation efforts to achieve high-quality development [21][22]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, consumption contributed 52% to China's economic growth, becoming the main engine driving the economy [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with online retail sales growing by 8.5% [1] - New consumption models and trends, such as self-care and emotional consumption, are emerging, indicating a vibrant consumption market [1][2] Expansion - The consumer market is showing robust growth, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles surpassed 5 million units, marking a 33.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The retail sales of sports and entertainment goods, as well as gold and jewelry, saw double-digit growth [1] Quality Improvement - Consumer preferences have shifted from merely acquiring products to seeking quality, with a notable rise in green and smart products [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated rapid growth in energy-efficient and smart home appliances [1] Renewal - New consumption trends are flourishing, with various new models and business formats emerging, such as night economy and "IP + consumption" [1] - The popularity of collectible blind boxes, like "Labubu," has gained global traction [1] Openness - The expansion of visa-free travel has attracted more foreign tourists, with a significant increase in foreign visitors during holidays [2] - The number of foreign tourists entering China during the May Day and Dragon Boat festivals increased by 72.7% and 59.4% respectively [2] Future Strategies - To further enhance consumption's role as an economic stabilizer, increasing residents' income levels is crucial [3] - Improving the consumption environment through better market regulation and infrastructure is essential [3] - The government plans to optimize funding for the "old-for-new" policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy [3]