Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Inflation Data**: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - **Fiscal Data**: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - **Fed Information**: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - **Mine - end News**: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - **Arbitrage and Import Profit**: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]