Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking clear short - term drivers, with geopolitical factors potentially becoming the short - term main line. The aromatics sector should focus on the sustainability of the blending oil logic. Methanol lacks upward drivers in the short term but has mid - term long - making logic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strengthening of refined oil in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the three drivers show little change. The tight supply pattern of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. Geopolitical factors in the Caribbean are worthy of attention, and a military action by the US against Venezuela could provide a short - term high - selling opportunity [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly line. Maintain an oscillatory view, and wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: It has been relatively strong recently. The rebound is driven by short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending oil logic. In the medium term, it faces the risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Geopolitical factors also need attention [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait for a rebound on the daily level to re - enter short positions [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. Observe the inventory accumulation rate during the peak season. There is currently no fundamental driver [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. There is a short - term support at 15130. Try long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upside space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not significant. Focus on the cost - side driver of butadiene, which may face inventory - swelling pressure in the medium term [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 10500 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry's internal contradiction is not large. After the hype of production cuts fades, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production - cut expectations [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side driver of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 6530 [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for the opportunity to go long when Iranian gas restrictions are implemented and the price breaks through 2125. Geopolitical factors may also provide a long - entry opportunity [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily line. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2125, or take the initiative to stop - profit. Look for long - entry opportunities after the price breaks through 2125 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with weak domestic demand. There is no upward driver [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a short - term pressure at 4625 [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 3950 [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term support at 6800 [34]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental driver [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Hold remaining short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward driver in supply - demand [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 2400 [40].