Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PX market has limited upside potential. Although the supply is tight before the holiday, the demand is weakening, and the polyester start - up decline may bring negative feedback. The PXN is expanding, but the valuation support from the blending oil logic is weakening [3]. - The PTA market also has limited upside potential. The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester industry is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, which may lead to a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The PTA processing fee is continuously compressed [5]. - For MEG, it is at a low - valuation level, and short - selling is not recommended. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and it is advisable to operate in the range [8]. 3. Summary by Directory PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PX futures forward curve shows a forward decline, and attention should be paid to the 01 - contract warehouse receipt pressure. The supply is tight, the near - end is strengthening, and the PXN is rising. The gasoline cracking spread is falling, which is negative for the blending oil market. The aromatics blending oil economy is weakening [20][26][31]. - The PX - MX spread has soared, and the Asian MX blending oil economy has significantly declined, while the overseas MX isomerization economy has increased [47][49]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The domestic PX start - up rate is at a historical high, with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian start - up rate is 78.6% (- 0.1%). There are expectations of supply contraction in the future, such as the Zhejiang Petrochemical's CDU maintenance in January [61]. - In October, the PX import volume was 830,000 tons. The import from South Korea has increased, while that from Saudi Arabia has been low [63][65]. - In November, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong accumulated 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [84]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The PTA basis and monthly spread have rebounded at a low level driven by raw materials, but the spot supply is still in surplus. The processing fee has been at a low level for a long time [90][100]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA start - up rate remains at 73.7%, with a weekly output of about 1.44 million tons. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative PTA output was 60.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [101][102]. - In October, the PTA export volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory holding willingness is low, and the warehouse receipt volume is continuously increasing [104][120]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The MEG monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price has reached a new low. The relative valuation has been continuously decreasing, and the profit of various production processes is in a loss state [133][137][140]. - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG start - up rate is 70% (- 3%), and the weekly domestic supply is about 400,000 tons. Many coal - chemical and ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads due to low profits [141][142]. - In October, the MEG import volume was 650,000 tons, and in November, it was over 720,000 tons. The overseas inventory is high, and the arrival volume remains at a high level, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory [143][152]. Polyester Segment - **Start - up** - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (- 0.6%), maintaining a high level. The start - up rate is expected to be 91% in December, 89% in January, and 84% in February [156][159]. - **Inventory** - The downstream sales are sluggish seasonally, and the inventory has begun to rise. The filament (POY/FDY) equity inventory is about half a month, the short - fiber inventory is at a low level both this year and in the same period of history, and the bottle - chip inventory has slightly increased [166][172]. - **Export** - From January to October, the total polyester export volume was 12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of various polyester products has also increased to different extents [173][176]. - **Profit** - The texturing profit is acceptable, but the FDY loss has expanded, and the POY is at the break - even point, which may affect the filament start - up enthusiasm [177]. Terminal (Weaving and Apparel) - **Demand and Start - up** - The overall demand is weakening. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 67% (- 2%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 83% (- 2%) [198]. - **Inventory and Sales** - The domestic demand orders have declined month - on - month, and the de - stocking speed of grey fabric inventory has slowed down. The new order atmosphere is weak, the shipment situation has deteriorated, and the fabric price has declined locally [201][202]. - **Retail and Export** - From January to October, the retail sales of Chinese clothing, footwear, and textiles were 106.127 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative export from January to October was 126.2 billion US dollars, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [203][209]. - Overseas, the clothing retail data in the US and Europe have risen strongly, while the overseas textile and clothing inventory has slightly declined month - on - month [213][219].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term core factor is geopolitics, with a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and an expectation of risk escalation in the Caribbean region. Aromatics (PX, PTA, BZ, EB) and methanol are short - term long - core varieties in the chemical industry [2][4]. - The supply - demand and macro drivers of crude oil are weak in the short term, but geopolitical factors may be the main driver in December. There are short - term long opportunities and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Logic: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak. Short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and before a large - scale inventory build - up, the oversupply trading is difficult to restart. Geopolitical factors are the main driver in December, with a short - term long view and mid - term short opportunities after a pulse - type upward movement [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Styrene - Logic: There is an unexpected inventory build - up during the seasonal de - stocking period, and there are still concerns about over - inventory. There are short - term fundamental contradictions and large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation, and the structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly and 15 - minute cycles after the stop - loss of long positions [8][9]. Rubber - Logic: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has no significant increase, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia. The inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing. The market should be treated with an oscillation view [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: It is traded around butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a five - year high in the past two weeks, and the price is under pressure. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation lacks short - selling space. Be cautious about the pulse - type upward movement of crude oil due to potential geopolitical escalation [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The supply - demand is neutral to positive, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [18]. PTA - Logic: The polyester has little pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected market. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and strong fundamentals in the chemical industry are likely to attract long - position funds. The long - position view is maintained [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 [20]. PP - Logic: It still faces the pressure of olefin capacity to be put into production, with high supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is negative, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The over - expected maintenance in Iran has led to the shutdown of multiple methanol plants. With the temperature dropping in December, a full - scale shutdown is likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has room for upward correction. The port de - stocking rate is accelerating. The withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous trading board brings a large upward space [24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure and short - term oscillation. After testing the support without breaking it, the upward structure continues. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2100 [25][27]. PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand. The social inventory is still increasing, and there is no upward drive [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in short - term oscillation. The technical structure is unclear. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity addition. Inventory build - up continues. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 3920. The strategy is to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin capacity addition remains. The supply - demand is still weak. Be vigilant about short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The upper short - term pressure is at 6825. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the production cut in the downstream glass production line suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally decreases [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After a reduction in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 1195. The remaining short positions in the hourly cycle should be held cautiously with a stop - profit at 1195 [36]. Caustic Soda - Logic: New capacity is put into production, and most plants have resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in high supply pressure. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. After an increase in positions and a decline, the downward structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is at 2220. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's geopolitical situation may lead to price increases. A pessimistic view on the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and an expected risk escalation in the Caribbean region could drive prices up. Chemicals, especially aromatics and methanol, are favored for long - positions. Other products have different trading outlooks based on their fundamentals and technical analysis [1][3]. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are weak in the short - term. Geopolitical factors are likely to be the main driver in December. A short - term bullish view but difficult to trade, and a mid - term shorting opportunity after a pulse - like upward movement is expected [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level is short - term oscillating. An intraday oscillation, with a break below 450 indicating a shift from an uptrend to oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Seasonal de - stocking is unexpectedly replaced by inventory accumulation, with a risk of over - stocking. There are short - term fundamental contradictions, and mid - term differences are significant. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the gasoline - blending logic and future imports. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows short - term oscillation, with an unclear structure. The 15 - minute level shows an upward structure, with a signal of a callback end and a counter - package at the end of the session. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation and a trial long - position on the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6550 is recommended [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth potential, and supply - side factors show a normal seasonal inventory accumulation in Qingdao during the Southeast Asian rubber - tapping season. An oscillating view is taken [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with an unclear hourly - level structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [10][12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: It is mainly traded based on butadiene. Butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in recent weeks, putting pressure on prices. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the low valuation limits short - selling space. Be cautious of potential geopolitical - driven upward pulses in crude oil. An oscillating and observing approach is recommended [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows short - term oscillation. An intraday decline on reduced positions, maintaining an oscillating structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Its supply - demand is moderately bullish, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [17][19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 6700. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 6700 is recommended [19]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, polyester has relatively low pressure, but the current fundamentals cannot support an upward drive. The main trading logic is based on expectations. Since November, the US aromatic gasoline - blending logic has led to a valuation repair. After the weakening of the gasoline - blending expectation last week, the cost of crude oil and relatively strong chemical fundamentals may attract more long - positions. A long - position view is maintained [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, with an intraday oscillation but the upward structure remaining unchanged. The hourly - level support is at 4620. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 4620 is recommended [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: It still faces the pressure of upcoming olefin capacity expansion, with high supply and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side drive from crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure, with an intraday oscillation. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [23]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian methanol plant outages are more than expected. With the start of winter gas restrictions, a full - scale shutdown is likely in December. After the market over - reacted to the less - than - expected gas restrictions, the price has room for upward correction. High shipping volumes and high inventories have already been priced in, and the port de - stocking rate is accelerating. There is a large upward space as short - positions are unwound [24][26]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the upward structure continuing. The short - term support is at 2100. A strategy of holding long - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - loss at 2100 is recommended [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. Social inventory is at a high level and still increasing, with no upward drive [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. An intraday oscillation, with an unclear short - term technical structure. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Multiple MEG plants in Iran are under maintenance, but domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and new capacity expansion, leading to continued inventory accumulation. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the short - term pressure at 3920. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [30]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the supply pressure from upstream olefin capacity expansion remains. The supply - demand situation is weak and has not improved. Be cautious of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday oscillation, with the short - term pressure at 6825. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, and the reduction of downstream glass production lines suppresses demand. Although the downward fundamental drive remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short - positions is reduced [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on reduced positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1195. A strategy of cautiously holding remaining short - positions on the hourly - level with a stop - profit at 1195 is recommended [33]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and most plants have resumed production after maintenance, resulting in high supply. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Hourly - level shows a downward structure. An intraday decline on increased positions, with the downward structure unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2220. A strategy of hourly - cycle observation is recommended [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core of crude oil is geopolitics. For crude oil, the geopolitical logic is pessimistic about the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and there is an upward - revision risk if the negotiation fails again. The risk in the Caribbean region is expected to escalate, with a potential pulse - like upward movement. In the chemical industry, aromatics and methanol are the core varieties for long positions. Aromatics are mainly in an expected - based market, and methanol has upward - correction space due to unexpected Iranian over - maintenance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro drivers are still weak, but short - term US high - frequency data is strong, and the inventory is low, so the oversupply trading is difficult to restart before significant inventory accumulation. There is a 80 - basis - point spread between the US real interest rate and the natural interest rate, and three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts are highly likely. Geopolitical disturbances are increasing and may be the main driver in December. Short - term view is bullish, and mid - term, there are high - selling opportunities after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure, but it should be seen as a wide - range oscillation. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the short - term support is at the 450 level. The short - term technical view is bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: There is an unexpected inventory increase during the seasonal de - stocking period, and the inventory - swelling expectation still exists. Domestic refineries have strong maintenance expectations in the far - month, and South Korean device profits are low. The import in January is expected to be large. There are short - term fundamental contradictions but not significantly manifested, and there are large mid - term differences. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the oil - blending logic can continue and the import situation in the next two months. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but there is an upward structure at the 15 - minute level. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly - level and hold long positions at the 15 - minute level, with a take - profit reference at the 6510 level [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no short - term contradictions. Tire demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is hard to see a large - scale trend in the demand side. The supply side is in the peak tapping season in Southeast Asia, and the inventory in Qingdao is seasonally increasing, but the inventory - increasing rate is normal. The fundamental situation shows no upward or downward drivers, and it should be treated with an oscillation view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by butadiene. The butadiene inventory has reached a 5 - year high in the past two weeks, and the price pressure of butadiene is large under the inventory - swelling expectation, so synthetic rubber has a downward - driving force around the cost side. Be cautious about the potential pulse - like upward disturbance of crude oil due to geopolitical escalation. Although the fundamental driver is downward, the valuation is low, so it is recommended to wait and see with an oscillation view [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term oscillation structure is being tested. Today, it decreased in price with decreased positions, and the short - term downward structure has evolved into an oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand of PX is neutral - bullish, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level standard support is at the 6700 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 6700 level [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The polyester itself has little pressure, but the current fundamental situation cannot support the upward drive. The main trading logic is the expected - based market. The US aromatics oil - blending logic has led to valuation repair since November. After the weakening of the oil - blending expectation last week, the cost - side crude oil and the relatively strong chemical fundamentals are likely to attract more chemical long - position funds. The market should maintain a bullish view [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with increased positions, and the upward structure remains unchanged. The hourly - level support is at the 4620 level. It is recommended to hold long positions at the hourly - level, with a stop - loss reference at the 4620 level [20]. PP - **Logic**: PP still faces the pressure of olefin production capacity to be put into operation, with high - supply pressure continuing and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand drive is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6400 level. The short - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: Iranian maintenance is more than expected, and many methanol plants have shut down since last week. With the official start of winter gas restrictions and the accelerating cold in December, a full shutdown is highly likely. After the market over - traded the expectation of insufficient gas restrictions, the market has upward - correction space. High shipments and high inventories have been priced in, the port de - stocking rate is accelerating, the market may anticipate the low - shipment point after the full shutdown, and the withdrawal of crowded short positions on the previous market brings a large upward space [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward and short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in price with decreased positions, and the upward structure continues. The short - term support is at the 2100 level. It is recommended to hold long positions in the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference at the 2100 level [27][29]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue. With the collapse of domestic real - estate demand, there is no hope for demand improvement. The social inventory at a high level continues to increase, and there is no upward drive [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term structure is facing a trend reversal. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Many overseas Iranian MEG plants are under maintenance, but the domestic supply remains high with the resumption of maintenance and the addition of new production capacity. Inventory accumulation continues, and attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 3920 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the single - side hourly cycle [35]. Plastic - **Logic**: The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the supply pressure from the upstream olefin production capacity put - into operation remains. The supply - demand situation is still weak and has not improved. Attention should be paid to the short - term geopolitical risk disturbance of crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at the 6825 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash continues, and the downstream glass production lines are reducing production, which suppresses the demand for soda ash. Although the fundamental downward drive remains, the cost - performance of holding short positions unilaterally is reduced [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1195 level. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously with a take - profit at the 1195 level [38]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: With the new production capacity put into operation and the end of most plant maintenance, the high - supply pressure continues. The alumina industry's losses are expanding, and its production is decreasing, so the demand for caustic soda remains weak. There is no upward drive in the supply - demand situation [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 2260 level. It is recommended to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term pure benzene market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, with the price fluctuating in a certain range. December is the period with the greatest real - world pressure, and it may gradually stabilize after January 2026 due to supply contraction and demand improvement expectations [2]. - The styrene market currently has a structural contradiction of stable supply, pressured demand, and high inventory. It is difficult to show a trend in the short term and may maintain a weak oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - On November 28, the styrene main contract closed up 0.71% at 6566 yuan/ton with a basis of 64 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.77% at 5479 yuan/ton [2]. - On November 28, Brent crude closed at 58.7 dollars/barrel (+0 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 62.9 dollars/barrel (+0.3 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 16.4 tons (+1.6 tons), a 10.7% month - on - month increase; pure benzene port inventory was 16.4 tons (+1.7 tons), an 11.6% month - on - month increase [2]. - Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 33.5 tons (-0.8 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.3% (-1.7%) [2]. - The overall demand of the downstream 3S production capacity utilization rate recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 54.7% (-1.5%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.2% (-1.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.6% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.1.2 Views - Pure benzene: The short - term market is in a weak reality and strong expectation pattern. The overseas gasoline - blending logic has cooled. Demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to shrink after January 2026. December has the greatest pressure, and it may gradually stabilize later [2]. - Styrene: The market has a structural contradiction of stable supply, pressured demand, and high inventory. It is difficult to show a trend in the short term and may maintain a weak oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to overseas supply changes and domestic demand recovery [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - From November 25 to 26, 2025, the styrene futures main contract rose 1.35%, and the spot price fell 0.90%. The pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.96%, and the East China spot price rose 0.76% [5]. - The price of Brent crude fell 1.51%, and WTI crude fell 1.47% [5]. 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 14 to 21, 2025, Chinese styrene output decreased 0.43%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.67% [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 15.16%, and factory inventory decreased 0.70%. Pure benzene port inventory increased 30.09% [6]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization Rate - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in the pure benzene downstream decreased 0.30%, and that of caprolactam increased 2.18%. The capacity utilization rate of EPS in the styrene downstream increased 4.64% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals [8]. - The US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, higher than market expectations [8]. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency [8]. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of styrene and pure benzene over different time periods [10][12][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA market: The intraday crude oil market showed weak oscillations. The gasoline cracking spread in the US narrowed, and the price of MX in the US declined. The positive impact of the gasoline blending logic on the PTA market ended, leading to a drop in the PTA market. However, the PX market remained firm under the influence of multiple factors. The increase in PX price was mainly driven by the support of gasoline blending value and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The export prospects of PTA improved due to India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, boosting the PX procurement sentiment. Currently, the PTA supply has slightly tightened, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, and the overall load has remained above 90%. The export prospects of domestic polyester are still optimistic [2]. - MEG market: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price could not support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. The commissioning of new plants continued to put pressure on the ethylene glycol price, and the spot shortage caused by low inventory was mainly reflected in the basis. The decline in coal prices reduced the price support for ethylene glycol. The subsequent export demand for textile and clothing and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 445.0 yuan/barrel on November 26, 2025, to 447.6 yuan/barrel on November 27, 2025, an increase of 2.6 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1450.1 yuan/ton to 1379.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.89 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4484 to 1.4240, a decrease of 0.0244 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 829 to 826, a decrease of 3. The PX - naphtha spread remained unchanged at 268 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA main futures price decreased from 4684 yuan/ton to 4632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreased from 4635 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 204.2 yuan/ton to 196.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.9 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee decreased from 253.2 yuan/ton to 218.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from (31) to (36), a decrease of 5.0. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 121,036 to 123,197, an increase of 2,161 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price decreased from 3896 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (140.68) to (140.87), a decrease of 0.2. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3904 to 3900, a decrease of 4.0. The main basis decreased from 33 to 5, a decrease of 28.0 [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 86.48% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Increased from 73.44% to 74.77%, an increase of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 61.48% to 63.48%, an increase of 2.00% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 89.19% [2]. 3.3 Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6490, and the POY cash flow increased from (31) to (8), an increase of 23.0. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6760 to 6755, a decrease of 5.0, and the FDY cash flow increased from (261) to (243), an increase of 18.0. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7855, and the DTY cash flow increased from 134 to 157, an increase of 23.0. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 54% to 45%, a decrease of 9% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6380 to 6365, a decrease of 15. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 209 to 217, an increase of 8.0. The staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 53% to 41%, a decrease of 12% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5550, and the chip cash flow increased from (71) to (48), an increase of 23.0. The chip production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%, a decrease of 16% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil is still in a state of waiting for a change in one of the three drivers (macro, supply - demand, and geopolitics) to form a short - term logic. Geopolitical drivers may become the short - term main line, especially the situation in the Caribbean [1][3]. - The strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may have a positive impact on aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Different energy and chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on technical analysis [5][8][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strength of refined oil products in Europe and the United States and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation may gradually improve, but geopolitical risks in the Caribbean are worthy of attention. Wait for a high - shorting opportunity after the event [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. Maintain an oscillating view, and the strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: The recent strength is due to short - term supply - demand improvement from device maintenance and the blending oil logic. In the medium - term, there is a risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Caribbean [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly level, and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation rate [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15,200 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Focus on the cost - end butadiene drive. Butadiene has a high supply and may face inventory pressure in the medium - term [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Pay attention to whether the blending oil logic can drive the price up after the hype of polyester industry chain production cuts fades. Also, focus on geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 6,745 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending oil logic and Caribbean geopolitical risks [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly level, with a take - profit reference of 4,655 [20]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [24]. Methanol - **Logic**: High port inventory suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for a long - position opportunity after the Iranian gas restriction and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to Caribbean geopolitical risks [26][28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a take - profit of 2,040, or take the initiative to stop the profit. Look for long - position opportunities after the price breaks through 2,040 [28]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and there is no hope for demand. It is difficult to have an upward drive [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [36]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and the downward drive remains [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1,245 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward drive in supply - demand [43]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Wait and see on the hourly cycle [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking clear short - term drivers, with geopolitical factors potentially becoming the short - term main line. The aromatics sector should focus on the sustainability of the blending oil logic. Methanol lacks upward drivers in the short term but has mid - term long - making logic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp fluctuations last week were due to the strengthening of refined oil in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the three drivers show little change. The tight supply pattern of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. Geopolitical factors in the Caribbean are worthy of attention, and a military action by the US against Venezuela could provide a short - term high - selling opportunity [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term oscillatory structure on the hourly line. Maintain an oscillatory view, and wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: It has been relatively strong recently. The rebound is driven by short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending oil logic. In the medium term, it faces the risk of over - supply and seasonal inventory accumulation. Geopolitical factors also need attention [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait for a rebound on the daily level to re - enter short positions [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent. Observe the inventory accumulation rate during the peak season. There is currently no fundamental driver [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. There is a short - term support at 15130. Try long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upside space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not significant. Focus on the cost - side driver of butadiene, which may face inventory - swelling pressure in the medium term [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 10500 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry's internal contradiction is not large. After the hype of production cuts fades, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, focus on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production - cut expectations [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side driver of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 6530 [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the price, but the domestic supply - demand structure is improving. Wait for the opportunity to go long when Iranian gas restrictions are implemented and the price breaks through 2125. Geopolitical factors may also provide a long - entry opportunity [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily line. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2125, or take the initiative to stop - profit. Look for long - entry opportunities after the price breaks through 2125 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with weak domestic demand. There is no upward driver [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Hold short positions on the hourly level with a short - term pressure at 4625 [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly lines respectively. Set a stop - profit for short positions on the hourly level and wait and see, with a short - term pressure at 3950 [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be wary of short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term downward structure on the daily line and short - term upward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term support at 6800 [34]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental driver [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Hold remaining short positions on the hourly level with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand. There is no upward driver in supply - demand [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: Short - term downward structure on the hourly line. Wait and see on the hourly cycle with a short - term pressure at 2400 [40].