成品油强势下芳烃类继续交易调油逻辑 行情综述： 此前精简提炼的表格形式观点汇总因故暂时取消，具体技术结构 与策略仍在下方具体品种阐述中。 原油盘面连续减仓下量能不足依旧延续震荡，等待增仓方向选择。 逻辑上原油三大驱动，宏观影响暂未体现，供需逻辑上上周 EIA 周报 与昨晚API周报均大幅累库但盘面依然反应平淡，地缘矛盾尚未激化， 总结原油依然等待在三大驱动中任意一个出现变化成为短期逻辑。个 人倾向地缘驱动或成为后续短期主线，加勒比局势加速升温，美军在 加勒比海部署升级，美内部对委内瑞拉行动讨论加速，美对委内瑞拉 动作或箭在弦上，而目前原油盘面依然未进行定价，短期供需逻辑运 行不畅下地缘驱动值得注意。 能化内部在原油震荡下部分品种脱离原油影响运行，近期欧美成 品油强势汽柴油裂解价差走强后调油逻辑再度浮现，对芳烃类品种或 形成利多驱动，关注调油逻辑能否持续驱动苯乙烯纯苯与聚酯上行。 甲醇方面仍未看到伊朗装置大规模停车，天量库存压力下依然缺少向 上驱动，虽限气落地大概率仍会发生，中期有做多逻辑，短期盘面异 动后关注上方压力位何时技术性突破。 （一）原油： 逻辑：上周原油出现大幅波动原因主要是受此前俄罗斯成品油出 口 ...

原油延续震荡关注地缘风险， 甲醇异动关注盘面信号 行情综述： 此前精简提炼的表格形式观点汇总因故暂时取消，具体技术结构 与策略仍在下方具体品种阐述中。 原油盘面连续减仓下量能不足依旧延续震荡，等待增仓方向选择。 逻辑上原油三大驱动，宏观影响暂未体现，供需在上周 EIA 周报转向 大幅累库现实下盘面反应平淡，地缘矛盾尚未激化，总结原油依然等 待在三大驱动中任意一个出现变化成为短期逻辑。个人倾向地缘驱动 或成为后续短期主线，加勒比局势加速升温，美军在加勒比海部署升 级，美内部对委内瑞拉行动讨论加速，美对委内瑞拉动作或箭在弦上， 而目前原油盘面依然未进行定价，短期供需逻辑运行不畅下地缘驱动 值得注意。 能化内部在原油震荡下部分品种脱离原油影响运行，近期欧美成 品油强势汽柴油裂解价差走强后调油逻辑再度浮现，对芳烃类品种或 形成利多驱动，关注调油逻辑能否持续驱动苯乙烯纯苯与聚酯上行。 甲醇方面仍未看到伊朗装置大规模停车，天量库存压力下依然缺少向 上驱动，虽限气落地大概率仍会发生，中期有做多逻辑，短期盘面异 动后关注上方压力位何时技术性突破。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期下跌结构，小时级别短期震荡 结构。今日冲高回落收 ...

原油延续震荡关注地缘风险， 行情综述： 芳烃类关注调油逻辑持续性 此前精简提炼的表格形式观点汇总因故暂时取消，具体技术结构 与策略仍在下方具体品种阐述中。 原油盘面连续减仓下量能不足依旧延续震荡，等待增仓方向选择。 逻辑上原油三大驱动，宏观影响暂未体现，供需在上周 EIA 周报转向 大幅累库现实下盘面反应平淡，地缘矛盾尚未激化，总结原油依然等 待在三大驱动中任意一个出现变化成为短期逻辑。个人倾向地缘驱动 或成为后续短期主线，加勒比局势加速升温，美军在加勒比海部署升 级，美内部对委内瑞拉行动讨论加速，美对委内瑞拉动作或箭在弦上， 而目前原油盘面依然未进行定价，短期供需逻辑运行不畅下地缘驱动 值得注意。 能化内部在原油震荡下部分品种脱离原油影响运行，近期欧美成 品油强势汽柴油裂解价差走强后调油逻辑再度浮现，对芳烃类品种或 形成利多驱动，关注调油逻辑能否持续驱动苯乙烯纯苯与聚酯上行。 甲醇方面仍未看到伊朗装置大规模停车，天量库存压力下依然缺少向 上驱动，虽限气落地大概率仍会发生，中期有做多逻辑，但短期抄底 仍需耐心等待。 （一）原油： 逻辑：上周原油出现大幅波动原因主要是受此前俄罗斯成品油出 口受阻后欧美成品油（汽 ...

能源化工周报—PX&PTA 一、主要观点 周内总结 印度解除BIS认证 出口有望回暖 2025年11月17日 研究所 王江楠 TEL：010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021543 一、主要观点 二、价格情况 三、装置运行情况 四、基本面分析 后市预测 1.周内总结 4 PX周内高位震荡，主要原因是油价回涨和调油逻辑的炒 作。近期市场关于亚美芳烃套利和调油炒作传闻增多， 引发对调油逻辑的关注。原油在地缘和供应的消息中摇 摆，价格反弹修复，给予PX支撑。 PTA周内高位震荡，主要原因是成本支撑恢复和印度BIS 解除。成本的稳固使得聚酯原料端总体偏强运行，另外 印度取消BIS认证，一定程度上利好PTA和下游聚酯产品 的出口预期，对聚酯产业链上下游绝对价格形成有效支 撑。 2.后市预测 5 • 原油方面：南美和俄乌的局势问题仍是市场关注重点，若没 有意外发生，原油价格很大概率将延续震荡偏弱的行情走势。 PX方面：PX总开工依旧维持在较高水平，而下游聚酯仍处于 淡旺季转换的节点，后市关注下游TA和聚酯出口订单落实情 况。PTA方面：加工费仍处于低位水平，虽然开工下滑， ...

芳烃市场周报： 调油逻辑提振芳烃价格 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 弘业期货 金融研究院 2025年11月14日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，石脑油价格当前569美元，PXCFR价格825美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月中石化PX结 算价格6620元/吨。APEC领导人峰会与此前吉隆坡磋商对宏观情绪带来新的提振，而OPEC+会议关于原油"少量过剩"的内容则有一定利空。 • 供给：国内PX产量为75.89万吨，环比上周+1.65%。国内PX周均产能利用率90.49%，环比上周+1.46%。周内福佳大化两套140万吨装置延续检修， 一套计划11月初重启；华南80万吨装置提前检修。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率76.18%，环比-1.51%，同比-6.37%。周内部分装置调整负荷，供应端重新优化，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用率环比 下降。 • 总结与展望：PX自 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report introduces the futures and options contracts of pure benzene, including contract specifications, delivery grades, delivery and warehouse receipt - related matters, and position limits. It also elaborates on the physical and chemical properties of pure benzene and its production processes. Moreover, it analyzes the impact of blending logic on pure benzene production, emphasizing the need to consider this factor when judging pure benzene output [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction In recent years, the price of pure benzene has fluctuated greatly, increasing the demand for using pure benzene futures derivatives to hedge risks and discover prices. In 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange carried out a series of procedures for pure benzene futures and options, including soliciting opinions, obtaining regulatory approval, and announcing relevant rules [5]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Futures and Options Contracts - **Pure Benzene Futures Contract**: The trading code is BZ, with a trading unit of 30 tons/hand. Based on the 2024 average spot price of pure benzene in East China ports, each contract is worth about 248,800 yuan, and the minimum margin is 12,400 yuan/hand. The contract months are from January to December, and the last trading day is the fourth - last trading day of the contract month, with a daily price limit of 4% [6][7]. - **Pure Benzene Futures Options Contract**: Call option trading code is BZ - contract month - C - strike price, and put option trading code is BZ - contract month - P - strike price. The trading unit is 1 hand of pure benzene futures contract. The last trading day is the 12th trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [8][9][10]. 3.3 Delivery Grade The delivery standard is in line with the national standard GB/T 3405 - 2025, targeting the mainstream products in the spot market. It has specific requirements for crystallization point, purity, and other indicators [12]. 3.4 Delivery and Warehouse Receipt - related Matters Enterprises participating in delivery need hazardous chemicals qualifications. The futures contract supports three delivery methods. The combination of factory and warehouse delivery systems is adopted, but the specific delivery warehouses are yet to be determined. The pure benzene standard warehouse receipts are subject to monthly cancellation, and the regional delivery premiums and discounts are yet to be announced [13][14]. 3.5 Position Limits For general months, when the pure benzene position is ≤40,000 hands, non - futures company members/overseas special non - brokerage participants and customers have a position limit of 2,000 hands each (equivalent to 60,000 tons). When the position >40,000 hands, the limit is 5% of the unilateral position. As the delivery month approaches, the position limits are gradually reduced [15]. 3.6 Physical and Chemical Properties of Pure Benzene Benzene is a simple aromatic compound, flammable, volatile, and toxic. It has specific physical properties such as density and boiling point. It is mainly used as a solvent and in the synthesis of derivatives. Storage requires special precautions due to its hazardous nature [17][19]. 3.7 Production Processes of Pure Benzene - **Petroleum - based Processes**: Account for 74.6% of the total domestic production capacity, including catalytic reforming (49% of total capacity), ethylene cracking (25% of total capacity), and toluene disproportionation (24% of total capacity) [20]. - **Coal - based Process**: Produces hydrogenated benzene through coal coking by - product crude benzene extraction and hydro - refining. Due to the higher purity of petroleum - based benzene, coal - based benzene production is gradually being replaced [20]. 3.8 Impact of Blending Logic on Pure Benzene - **Gasoline Demand**: Strong gasoline demand leads to more reformed gasoline entering the blending pool, reducing the raw materials for aromatic extraction and thus decreasing the production of benzene through catalytic reforming. Weak gasoline demand has the opposite effect [43]. - **Demand for High - Octane Components**: High demand for high - octane components like toluene leads to more toluene being used for gasoline blending, reducing the supply of benzene produced through toluene disproportionation. Weak demand for high - octane components has the opposite effect [44].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PTA market is expected to continue its upward trend due to tightening supply and improving demand dynamics, driven by seasonal factors and inventory reductions [1][4]. - Recent data shows that the overall PTA operating rate in China has dropped to 70.3%, significantly lower than the same period in the past three years, with multiple major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [2]. - The polyester sector has seen an unexpected increase in operating rates, reaching 94.2%, which is a new high for the year, alleviating previous concerns about low demand [3]. Group 2 - The social inventory of PTA has been decreasing, with the turnover days dropping to 13.36 days, indicating a continuous destocking trend [2]. - The upcoming summer season in Europe and the U.S. is expected to boost gasoline consumption, which may positively impact the aromatics market, particularly in the context of PTA and PX production [4]. - The overall supply of PTA is anticipated to remain tight in May, providing strong support for price increases, as the polyester industry shows robust production and sales performance [4].