整体来看，山东实施"三债统管"及"将隐性债务置换债券全部下沉市县"政策，短期对 缓解城投公司流动性压力具有积极作用；长期看，未来债务化解的核心仍在于提升城投公司自 身造血能力，加快实质性转型。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、山东省债务管控情况 山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工作，随着化债措施推进，部分区 域在债务风险化解方面取得一定进展。 债务化解取得一定成效，舆情管控力度仍需加强 ——山东省城投企业财务表现观察 联合资信 公用评级四部 |赵晓敏 张昶 山东省各地市积极对接金融机构、压降平台数量和盘活国有资产等，采取多元化化债措施， 2024 年以来，山东省城投公司投资和债务增速放缓，潍坊市受益于化债政策倾斜，城投公司 债务规模有所下降，债务结构有所优化；但山东省城投公司整体债务负担较重，短期债务占比 较高，融资结构有待进一步优化，受区域财力、自身经营及财务隐患、外部融资环境和化债支 持力度等因素影响，部分城投公司负面舆情仍未完全消除。 "一揽子化债"方案实施以来，山东省采取多元化化债措施，有序开展地方债务风险化解工 作。2024 年，山东省共发行特殊再融资债券 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local debt risk is considered one of the three major "gray rhinos" in the economic field, crucial for the overall construction of Chinese-style modernization. The exit of financing platforms and the market-oriented transformation of urban investment companies are essential for establishing a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local debt risks, as well as achieving "development through debt reduction" [1]. Financing Platform Exit Situation - The local debt, primarily carried by financing platforms, has played a significant role in promoting local economic and social development. A series of government documents since 2010 have aimed to regulate and reduce the functions of these platforms, culminating in the 2024 "Document No. 150," which mandates the complete exit of financing platforms by June 2027, requiring them to clear hidden debts and transform into market-oriented entities [2][3]. Progress and Path of National Financing Platform Exit - By 2025, significant progress has been made in reducing the number of financing platforms, with a total reduction of 4,680 platforms, accounting for over two-thirds of the annual decrease. Some provinces, such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, have achieved exit rates of 76% and 66.5%, respectively, surpassing the national average [3][4]. Challenges and Difficulties in Financing Platform Exit - The exit process faces several challenges, including pressure to clear hidden debts, difficulties in obtaining consent from financial creditors, and unclear operational standards. The current economic environment, characterized by declining land transfer revenues and tight finances, exacerbates these challenges [6]. Urban Investment Company Transformation Path - Urban investment companies are experiencing a "three weaknesses" phenomenon in operations, management, and assets. The transformation process is focused on market-oriented, refined, and specialized development, with a shift towards becoming state-owned capital investment/operation companies, urban comprehensive operators, or industrial groups [7][8]. Transition to State-Owned Capital Investment/Operation Companies - The primary model involves integrating industrial investment with state-owned asset management, focusing on optimizing state capital layout and enhancing value preservation and appreciation. This transition is guided by national policies and aims to improve operational efficiency [9]. Transition to Urban Comprehensive Operators - Urban comprehensive operators are expected to provide a full range of services, from planning and construction to operation and management. This transition requires a clear urban development strategy and the expansion of diversified business operations [13][14]. Transition to Industrial Companies - The trend of urban investment companies rebranding as "industrial investment" reflects a strategic intent to alleviate local debt pressure and effectively promote industrial development. This involves optimizing industrial park operations and leveraging regional resource advantages [16][17]. Recommendations for Financing Platform Exit and Urban Investment Company Transformation - To achieve effective exit and transformation, a top-level design approach is necessary, focusing on short-term survival and long-term development. This includes establishing clear exit goals, optimizing asset and debt structures, and enhancing financial support mechanisms [19][20][21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese government is undergoing significant changes in its financing system, with a notable increase in government net financing while city investment bonds (CIB) are experiencing negative net financing [1][2] - In the first half of 2023, the net financing of government bonds reached 7.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of approximately 129% [1][4] - The net financing of city investment bonds saw a decline of 763.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 149%, indicating a tightening supply of CIBs [1][4] Group 2 - The decline in CIB issuance and negative net financing is a result of stricter regulations aimed at controlling new hidden debts and enhancing oversight of CIBs [2][4] - Despite the decrease in CIB financing, the government still needs to increase debt funding for major project construction to sustain economic growth amid complex internal and external conditions [2] - Infrastructure investment in the first half of 2023 grew by 4.6%, outpacing overall investment growth by 1.8 percentage points, supported by the acceleration of special local government bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [4] Group 3 - The ongoing transformation of city investment companies is being accelerated, with over 7,000 companies withdrawing from the government financing platform list last year [1] - The report from China Chengxin International indicates that while the pace of debt resolution is increasing, local governments still face significant repayment pressures, and the effectiveness of monetary policy and tools needs continuous observation [4] - The quality of the transformation among city investment enterprises varies, raising concerns about the restructuring of government-enterprise relationships and the potential for increased debt burdens due to "fake transformations" [4]

Key Points - The issuance of replacement bonds for hidden debt reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a rapid and early issuance trend [1] - The issuance of special new bonds for debt resolution is projected to be 800 billion yuan annually for five years starting in 2024, with 4.623 billion yuan issued in the first half of this year [1][2] - The total amount of local bonds issued for debt resolution accounted for 41% of the total issuance in the first half of the year [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds helps to make hidden debts visible, thereby reducing the scale of existing hidden debts and improving the overall debt structure [2] - Local governments are increasingly using special bonds to repay overdue payments to enterprises, with specific allocations made in regions like Yunnan [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of resolving overdue payments to enterprises, particularly for private enterprises, to enhance their resilience against risks [3][4] - There is a call for accelerating the transformation of local investment companies to reduce reliance on local governments and improve their market competitiveness [4][5]

Group 1 - The core issue in Guangxi, particularly in Liuzhou, revolves around debt resolution and economic development, with significant attention from the regional government [2][5] - Liuzhou has successfully completed a phase of debt resolution, achieving a "zero" status for non-standard debt by the end of June, and has maintained a stable financial environment for over four years [2][5] - The local government aims to resolve over 100 billion yuan in debt principal and interest in 2024, while reducing interest expenses by 1.6 billion yuan [2][5] Group 2 - Liuzhou's public budget revenue for 2024 is projected at 14.9 billion yuan, with a local government debt balance of 104.3 billion yuan, resulting in a wide debt ratio of approximately 490% [5][21] - The urgency of debt resolution is underscored by the national goal to reduce local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, requiring an annual reduction of 460 billion yuan [6][19] - The overall local government debt, including hidden debts, is a significant concern, with the total government debt reaching approximately 70.77 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 [7][8] Group 3 - The current debt resolution strategy primarily involves debt replacement, converting high-interest, short-term debts into lower-interest, long-term obligations [16][19] - Challenges in debt resolution include the ongoing pressure of interest payments on existing debts, which remain high despite lower new financing rates [16][17] - The economic structure of Liuzhou is fragile, with a GDP growth rate of only 1.5% in 2024, indicating a need for structural adjustments to ensure sustainable economic development [21][22] Group 4 - The local government is focusing on high-quality development as a long-term solution to the debt crisis, rather than merely reducing debt levels [22][23] - The new leadership emphasizes the importance of industrial revitalization and sustainable economic practices to overcome the current financial challenges [23]