宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 164120 元/吨，较前日 上涨 11480 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152080 元/吨，较前日上涨 5.77%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-8920 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日 走弱 4260 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2605.GFE closed at 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was 1,380 points, a positive basis (spot premium), weakening 240 points from the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 30,211 lots, an increase of 245 lots (+0.82%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The overall industry inventory remained at a relatively low level [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The main contract closing price of futures was 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day and 3,960 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The main contract settlement price was 166,500 yuan/ton, down 3,840 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,660 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of lithium spodumene concentrates from different regions (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, etc.) showed various changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 4,080 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 3,320 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of domestic lithium hydroxide products also had different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The prices of downstream products such as ternary precursors, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed various trends [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the price changes of ore, lithium, cathode materials, ternary materials, and other related products, as well as the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [8][10][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is showing signs of stabilization. The main contract of the futures market has been on an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the spot price has also shown an overall upward trend, although it decreased by 2.53% compared to the previous day. The inventory inflection point has appeared [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 163,220 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan/ton from the previous day, and up 18,220 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The settlement price was 160,640 yuan/ton, down 4,740 yuan/ton from the previous day, but up 17,240 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [4][6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean and Malian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrates were in the ranges of 2280 - 2350, 2260 - 2330, 2240 - 2330, and 1900 - 1980 US dollars/ton respectively, with price changes compared to the previous day and 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O content in the Chinese market increased, with price increases ranging from 25 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 755 - 2495 yuan/ton compared to 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 158,920 yuan/ton, down 4,130 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 20,330 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 150,460 yuan/ton, down 3,660 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 21,900 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of ternary precursor (111) increased by 0.3 million yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the price of ternary material (111, power, domestic) increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8][9]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts display the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][14][16]. - **Other Relevant Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market is 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate is 159,620 yuan/ton, up 4.93% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -8,240 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weaker by 4,940 points from the previous day, and the basis has been oscillating in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 26,898 lots, an increase of 928 lots (+3.57%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have generally increased in the past 10 trading days. Short - term supply elasticity is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan/ton from the previous day and 29,040 yuan/ton from the previous week; the settlement price is 167,860 yuan/ton, up 12,440 yuan/ton from the previous day and 31,740 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates have increased compared to the previous week, while the prices of South African CIF China lithium spodumene raw ore and some lithium mica prices have also changed. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrate is in the range of 2,180 - 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 140 - 150 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 400 - 480 US dollars/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate is 159,620 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,030 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide is 150,560 yuan/ton, up 7,530 yuan/ton from the previous day and 33,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and electrolytes have also changed. For example, the price of domestic 111 - type power ternary material is 175,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14,000 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of manganese - acid lithium electrolyte is 52,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous day and 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts showing the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the lithium carbonate main contract [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 8.63% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -3300 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 160 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots (+2.41%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. The reduction of the tax refund rate has led to the front - loading of short - term demand for lithium carbonate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day and 26,080 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 155,420 yuan/ton, up 12,240 yuan/ton from the previous day and 28,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica from different origins have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate is 2040 - 2150 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 85 - 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 470 - 500 US dollars/ton from 5 trading days ago. The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market has also increased [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 12,080 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,590 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 143,030 yuan/ton, up 10,990 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,140 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium have changed. For example, the price of the ternary precursor (523) was 106,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 10,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts presenting the prices of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate contract [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the main contract of lithium carbonate was changed from LC2601.GFE to LC2605.GFE, with a closing price of 96,340 yuan/ton. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 92,820 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day, showing an overall upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis was -4,640 points, a negative basis (spot discount), which was 3,380 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis had been oscillating overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 27,050 lots, an increase of 435 lots (+1.63%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts had been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. The resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi had been inconsistent, and the market was skeptical about the actual increase, so the tight supply pattern at the lithium ore end remained unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 96,340 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan from the previous day and down 2,960 yuan from the previous week; the settlement price of the main contract was 97,460 yuan/ton, up 4,240 yuan from the previous day and down 700 yuan from the previous week. - **Lithium Spodumene**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF China lithium spodumene concentrates increased by 70 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, while the prices of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore remained unchanged. - **Lithium Mica**: The prices of various grades of lithium mica in the Chinese market increased compared with the previous week, but remained unchanged compared with the previous day. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 92,820 yuan/ton, up 860 yuan from the previous day and 3,880 yuan from the previous week. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide and Xinjiang's 56.5% monohydrate lithium hydroxide increased by 230 yuan from the previous day, while the prices of other types of lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Ternary Materials and Related Products**: The prices of ternary precursors and ternary materials remained unchanged compared with the previous day and the previous week. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as electrolyte, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium increased compared with the previous week, while the prices of others remained unchanged [6]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts displayed the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures [8][10][16].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2601.GFE) closed at 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton (-1.76%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The current basis was -7,180 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weakening by 690 points from the previous day, and the basis has been weakening overall in the past 10 trading days. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,611 lots, down 342 lots (-1.27%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. - Social inventory has dropped to a low level. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 6,980 yuan/ton from the previous week; the main contract settlement price was 94,600 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,840 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mali) showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day and week; the prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market also increased. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 5,060 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend, while some market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable, while the price of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate increased. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Other Related Data**: Charts showed the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures. [7][10][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Core Insights - Stock index futures are a "double-edged sword" that can provide efficient risk management and profit opportunities but can also amplify losses due to leverage and complexity [1] Group 1: Contract Expiration Effect - Understanding the "contract expiration effect" is crucial for trading stock index futures to avoid non-systematic risks caused by time factors [2] - The expiration date is set for the third Friday of the current month, the next month, and the following two quarters, leading to increased price volatility as positions converge to the spot index [2] - Strategies to mitigate risks include "early roll-over" to more liquid contracts, "avoiding delivery months," and being aware of position limits set by exchanges [2] Group 2: Leverage and Position Management - Establishing a "dynamic balance of leverage and position" is essential for risk control in stock index futures trading [3] - Lower margin ratios lead to higher leverage, which can result in significant gains or losses from minor price fluctuations [3] - Investors should keep leverage below 3 times their capital and adjust positions based on profit and loss thresholds to avoid liquidation risks [3] Group 3: Basis Analysis - Learning "basis analysis" is key to improving the success rate in trading stock index futures [5] - The basis reflects market expectations for future index movements, with positive basis indicating expected declines and negative basis indicating expected increases [5] - Significant deviations in basis can present arbitrage opportunities, and changes in basis direction can signal market trends [5] Group 4: Stop-Loss and Emergency Plans - Implementing "stop-loss and take-profit strategies" is vital for protecting accounts during extreme market conditions [6] - Stop-loss levels should not exceed 5% of the margin, and trailing stop-loss strategies can help secure profits [6] - Emergency plans should include automatic reduction of positions during significant market movements to minimize losses [7] Group 5: Overall Trading Philosophy - The essence of trading stock index futures lies in "respecting leverage, managing basis, controlling positions, and adhering to discipline" [7] - This trading arena is not suitable for all investors and requires professional knowledge, risk tolerance, and discipline [7] - Long-term profitability hinges on effective risk management rather than merely defeating the market [7]