1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Core Insights - Stock index futures are a "double-edged sword" that can provide efficient risk management and profit opportunities but can also amplify losses due to leverage and complexity [1] Group 1: Contract Expiration Effect - Understanding the "contract expiration effect" is crucial for trading stock index futures to avoid non-systematic risks caused by time factors [2] - The expiration date is set for the third Friday of the current month, the next month, and the following two quarters, leading to increased price volatility as positions converge to the spot index [2] - Strategies to mitigate risks include "early roll-over" to more liquid contracts, "avoiding delivery months," and being aware of position limits set by exchanges [2] Group 2: Leverage and Position Management - Establishing a "dynamic balance of leverage and position" is essential for risk control in stock index futures trading [3] - Lower margin ratios lead to higher leverage, which can result in significant gains or losses from minor price fluctuations [3] - Investors should keep leverage below 3 times their capital and adjust positions based on profit and loss thresholds to avoid liquidation risks [3] Group 3: Basis Analysis - Learning "basis analysis" is key to improving the success rate in trading stock index futures [5] - The basis reflects market expectations for future index movements, with positive basis indicating expected declines and negative basis indicating expected increases [5] - Significant deviations in basis can present arbitrage opportunities, and changes in basis direction can signal market trends [5] Group 4: Stop-Loss and Emergency Plans - Implementing "stop-loss and take-profit strategies" is vital for protecting accounts during extreme market conditions [6] - Stop-loss levels should not exceed 5% of the margin, and trailing stop-loss strategies can help secure profits [6] - Emergency plans should include automatic reduction of positions during significant market movements to minimize losses [7] Group 5: Overall Trading Philosophy - The essence of trading stock index futures lies in "respecting leverage, managing basis, controlling positions, and adhering to discipline" [7] - This trading arena is not suitable for all investors and requires professional knowledge, risk tolerance, and discipline [7] - Long-term profitability hinges on effective risk management rather than merely defeating the market [7]