数据来源：Wind资讯 2025年，人民币外汇掉期市场呈现整体震荡上行态势。从国内情况来看，央行运用了降息、降准等逆周期调节措施，维持适度宽松的货币政策。就国际形势 而言，在美国关税政策引发的通胀风险预期以及疲软的就业数据的双重作用下，美联储于下半年谨慎开启降息后内部分歧加大，降息前景依然复杂。全年中 美十年期国债收益率差由年初的3.1%下行至年末的2.2%左右，人民币兑美元1年期掉期点也由-2400pips攀升至-1200pips附近。在整体上行的过程中，1年期 掉期点呈现不同的阶段性特征。具体来讲，主要可划分为四个阶段。 图2 中美10年期国债收益率走势 内容提要 2025年人民币外汇衍生品市场呈现出不同的阶段性特征。外汇掉期整体震荡上行，外汇期权波动率阶段性上升、但整体趋于稳定。展望2026年，预计人民币 兑美元掉期市场或先延续震荡上行态势，后进入区间波动；人民币外汇期权波动率或将保持低位。 2025年，受国内外经济基本面变化、中美贸易摩擦演进及美联储降息预期博弈等政治经济事件影响，人民币外汇衍生品市场呈现出不同的阶段性特征。具体 而言，外汇掉期整体震荡上行，外汇期权波动率阶段性上升、但整体趋于稳定。 ...

【导读】央行发布《银行间外汇市场管理规定》 中国基金报记者 忆山 12 月 26 日，央行官网发布消息称，为规范和发展外汇市场，扩大高水平对外开放，保障各 方合法权益，防范相关风险，促进外汇市场 更好服务 实体经济，中国人民银行对《银行间外 汇市场管理暂行规定》（银发〔 1996 〕 423 号）进行修订，发布《银行间外汇市场管理规 定》（中国人民银行令 〔 2025 〕第 13 号 ），自 2026 年 2 月 1 日起施行。 第二条 本规定所称银行间外汇市场是指通过中国外汇交易中心（以下简称外汇交易中心）进 行人民币与外币交易的市场。 据介绍，新规定立足我国银行间外汇市场发展变化和监管实践，统筹整合有关制度规定，形 成系统性的监管框架和监管要求。 主要内容包括：第一，加强银行间外汇市场监管，从交易场所、资质条件、报价规范、交易 清算规则、信息管理、数据服务、自律管理等领域明确相应要求，实现业务监管全覆盖。第 二，维护外汇市场稳健运行，规范银行间外汇市场基础设施、境内外金融机构、货币经纪公 司、金融信息服务商权利和义务，要求遵循公开、公平、公正和诚实信用原则，保护市场参 与者合法权益。第三，推动银行间外汇市 ...

【导读】央行发布《银行间外汇市场管理规定》 据介绍，新规定立足我国银行间外汇市场发展变化和监管实践，统筹整合有关制度规定，形成系统性的监管框架和监管要求。 12月26日，央行官网发布消息称，为规范和发展外汇市场，扩大高水平对外开放，保障各方合法权益，防范相关风险，促进外汇市场更好服务实体经济， 中国人民银行对《银行间外汇市场管理暂行规定》（银发〔1996〕423号）进行修订，发布《银行间外汇市场管理规定》（中国人民银行令〔2025〕第13 号），自2026年2月1日起施行。 | | 1 | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 条法司 Legal Affairs Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 ...

一是加强银行间外汇市场监管，从交易场所、资质条件、报价规范、交易清算规则、信息管理、数据服务、自律管理等领域明确相应要求，实现业务监管 全覆盖。 二是维护外汇市场稳健运行，规范银行间外汇市场基础设施、境内外金融机构、货币经纪公司、金融信息服务商权利和义务，要求遵循公开、公平、公正 和诚实信用原则，保护市场参与者合法权益。 三是推动银行间外汇市场高质量发展，支持外汇市场基础设施根据市场需求不断丰富交易和清算品种、币种、方式等，便利金融机构为客户提供外汇服 务。 为规范和发展外汇市场，扩大高水平对外开放，保障各方合法权益，防范相关风险，促进外汇市场更好服务实体经济，中国人民银行对《银行间外汇市场 管理暂行规定》（银发〔1996〕423号）进行修订，发布《银行间外汇市场管理规定》（中国人民银行令〔2025〕第13号），自2026年2月1日起施行。 新规定立足我国银行间外汇市场发展变化和监管实践，统筹整合有关制度规定，形成系统性的监管框架和监管要求。主要内容包括： (本文缩略图为AI生成) Wind用户在金融终端输入 ACHA T(Ali ce chat) 千亿级参数智能模型， 能理解复杂金融概念 20年金融数据沉淀 ...

10年期日债收益率当前在1.951%附近徘徊，前期高点为1.976%。从技术面来看，20日布林带(参数20,2) 显示中轨为1.941%、上轨为1.991%、下轨为1.891%。若收益率突破上轨，大概率将测试2.00%的重要心 理关口；反之则将下探1.90%和1.85%支撑位。 技术指标层面，10年期日债的MACD指标(参数26,12,9)显示DIFF值为0.032、DEA值为0.038，整体处于 微弱多头区域但动能明显不足，这一特征与决议前市场浓厚的观望情绪高度契合；而美元兑日元近期已 呈现明确下行趋势，日内更是跌破155.00关键心理关口，走势遭遇基本面与技术面的双重压制：从政策 分化来看，日本央行的加息预期与市场对美联储2026年两次降息的鸽派预期形成对冲，美日利差收窄的 压力持续支撑日元走强；技术面角度，240分钟图的20日布林带(参数20,2)显示中轨为155.438、上轨为 156.263、下轨为154.613，当前汇价已逼近下轨位置，且MACD指标显示DIFF值为-2.52、DEA值 为-0.170，绿色动能柱持续放量，进一步确认短期空头占据主导地位；不过日本国内的财政担忧对日元 涨幅形成了一定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government has announced new measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market, addressing the long-standing imbalance in foreign exchange supply and demand, which has recently intensified fluctuations in the Korean won's exchange rate [1] Group 1: Government Measures - The regulatory authorities will review the foreign exchange income and expenditure of export enterprises and seek policy tools to support their overseas investment activities [1] - Special inspections will be conducted to ensure adequate protective measures for overseas investments [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The South Korean central bank is in discussions with pension funds to expand foreign exchange swap limits, which will help alleviate dollar liquidity pressure and enhance market resilience [1] - These initiatives are part of broader measures aimed at strengthening market operations and maintaining stability [1]

Core Insights - The China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) indicates a gradual recovery in China's financial landscape, moving away from a cold phase, although the foreign exchange and bond markets remain constraints [1][10] - The report suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy and leveraging the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to attract international capital back to China, providing new momentum for economic recovery [1][10] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: Money Supply Index (MSI), Credit Situation Index (CSI), Stock Market Index (SSI), Bond Market Index (BSI), Exchange Rate Pressure Index (EPI), and Real Estate Situation Index (RSI) [3][4] - The index is designed to provide a quantifiable assessment of China's overall financial situation, reflecting the operational status and structural changes within the financial system [3][4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the MSI and CSI are in a moderately positive state, indicating a mild recovery in the banking credit market [7][8] - The SSI is also in a positive state, while the BSI shows a slight cooling, reflecting a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets [7][8] - The EPI is currently the lowest among the indices, indicating moderate cooling, primarily due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The CAFI index for Q3 2025 shows signs of recovery, with values indicating a shift from a moderately cold state to a warming trend, although the recovery is not yet solidified [10] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to support economic recovery and counter deflationary pressures, while credit policies will focus on key economic areas [10][11] - The opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle presents an opportunity to alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate and attract international capital, which could be crucial for the financial situation's improvement [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the agreement between the US and South Korea regarding a $350 billion investment fund, which includes $200 billion in cash, aimed at alleviating pressure on the Korean won and easing short-term financing burdens in the local bond market [1][3] - The 25% tariff on South Korean automobiles will be reduced to 15%, with most other goods maintaining current tariff levels, effective from a likely date of November 1 [3] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to significantly mitigate the downside risks faced by the South Korean automotive industry, which is heavily reliant on US demand [3] Group 2 - The role of the National Pension Service (NPS) in the foreign exchange market may become increasingly important as the Bank of Korea is required to remit investment earnings from foreign reserves to the US [3] - There is a potential risk of depreciation for the Korean won in the coming years as the proportion of dollar export revenues converted to won by private enterprises may decrease [3] - The impact of these developments on South Korea's monetary policy is expected to be neutral [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/KRW exchange rate is trading around 1420, with resistance levels at 1430-1450 and support levels at 1400-1420 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial operation in Henan Province is overall stable in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on expanding total volume, optimizing structure, and reducing costs to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development [1] Financial Operation Overview - As of the end of September, the total balance of deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies reached 11.7 trillion yuan, with household deposits at 8.3 trillion yuan and non-financial enterprise deposits at 1.8 trillion yuan [2] - The total balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies was 9.3 trillion yuan, with household loans at 3.5 trillion yuan and loans to enterprises at 5.8 trillion yuan; new loans added in the first three quarters amounted to 408.16 billion yuan [2] - The incremental social financing scale for the first three quarters was 726.95 billion yuan [2] Structural Monetary Policy - Under the guidance of structural monetary policy tools, financial resources are increasingly directed towards key sectors, with agricultural loans growing steadily to a balance of 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 77.13 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3] - Loans to the manufacturing sector increased to 664.88 billion yuan, up by 79.46 billion yuan since the start of the year [3] - Infrastructure loans reached a balance of 1.7 trillion yuan, with an increase of 52.46 billion yuan; medium and long-term loans for infrastructure stood at 1.5 trillion yuan, up by 67.13 billion yuan [3] - General consumer loans grew rapidly, reaching a balance of 724.1 billion yuan, an increase of 36.57 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3] Cost Reduction and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China in Henan has effectively promoted a decline in policy interest rates, leading to a decrease in comprehensive financing costs; the weighted average interest rate for new loans in September was 3.83%, down by 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.31%, also down by 0.61 percentage points; for new personal housing loans, it was 3.19%, down by 0.27 percentage points [3] Policy Implementation and Financial Services - The People's Bank of China in Henan has intensified the implementation of financial policies, enhancing services for enterprises and supporting high-quality economic development [4] - The balance of technology loans reached 1.07916 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [4] - The balance of green loans was 1.03809 trillion yuan, growing by 27% year-on-year [4] Inclusive Finance and Elderly Care Finance - The number of inclusive small and micro enterprise credit accounts reached 2.427 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; the balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 1.30709 trillion yuan, up by 12.6% [5] - Loans for the elderly care industry reached 7.754 billion yuan, with over 17 billion yuan in loans for consumption and elderly care projects issued [5] Digital Finance - The balance of loans for the digital economy reached 110.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [6] Bond Financing - The balance of corporate debt financing tools reached 448.87 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year; 73 enterprises issued bonds in the interbank market, raising 144.02 billion yuan [7] - The balance of innovative debt financing tools reached 46.23 billion yuan, up by 64.9% year-on-year [7] Foreign Exchange Market - The foreign exchange market in Henan has shown resilience, with nearly 70 billion USD in facilitation business processed in the first three quarters [9] - The number of quality enterprises reached 462, with 12 pilot banks involved [9] Trade and New Business Models - The new international trade settlement scale reached 408 million USD, with 801 market procurement trade registered merchants [10] - The total service trade revenue was 7.893 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 43.63% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government is preparing to transition to a 24-hour trading system for its foreign exchange market, aiming to enhance market accessibility for foreign investors and address the lack of an offshore won market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Opening and Regulatory Changes - South Korea plans to open its foreign exchange market 24 hours a day and relax restrictions on won trading among non-residents, with a roadmap expected by the end of the year [2]. - The current trading hours are from 9 AM to 2 AM the next day, and the government aims to implement these changes sometime next year [2]. - A new settlement system will be established to facilitate 24-hour processing of won payments [2]. Group 2: MSCI and FTSE Russell Inclusion Efforts - The lack of an offshore won market has been a key factor in MSCI classifying South Korea as an emerging market, and the government is making reforms to meet the criteria for inclusion in the MSCI developed markets index [3]. - MSCI has indicated that full currency convertibility and the removal of capital controls are necessary for South Korea to be recognized as a developed market [3]. - The South Korean government is also working towards inclusion in the FTSE Russell Global Government Bond Index, with the timeline for inclusion pushed to April 2026 [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the won depreciated against the dollar, reaching its lowest level since mid-May at 1410.8, with further declines observed [4].