摘要周五(12月12日)欧盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于4282一线上方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4286.10美 元/盎司，上涨0.17%，最高触及4290.19美元/盎司，最低下探4264.19美元/盎司。目前来看，现货黄金短 线偏向震荡走势。 第一阿布扎比银行预计，美联储在2026年的额外降息幅度不会超过50个基点。然而，他们表示，全年利 率走势最终将主要取决于通胀走向、劳动力市场表现，以及内外部政策风险的发展情况。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 现货黄金近期走势呈现出明显的多头格局。价格在周四完成了对近两周盘整区间的向上突破，触及10月 21日以来的最高水平。这一技术性突破具有重要的信号意义，表明多头力量在关键阻力位获得了确认。 从图表分析角度观察，金价自低点3886.51美元启动反弹以来，已累计上涨超过10%，目前稳定运行于 4200美元整数关口上方。 MACD指标显示DIFF值为52.79，DEA值为47.74，柱状线维持正值，表明短期动能仍偏向多方。RSI指 标报67.65，接近但尚未进入传统意义上的超买区域，暗示上行趋势尚有延续空间。 4285.75美元构成短期阻力，若能有效突破并站稳，金价或将挑战43 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. Although the downstream tire operating rate and finished - product inventory are not ideal, the decline of the visible inventory in Qingdao and the firm raw material prices in the producing areas provide support. Considering the upcoming traditional consumption peak season and the absence of new macro - level negatives, the market is expected to enter a seasonally bullish trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - The prices of RU2601, NR2510, and BR2509 futures contracts all increased this week. RU2601 rose by 2.28%, NR2510 by 1.97%, and BR2509 by 2.61%. The market continued to recover, with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals are bullish, and the bullish pattern is expected to continue [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,240 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [4]. 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2,859 tons to 213,188 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,650 tons to 179,930 tons [5]. 3.4 Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. - The raw material prices in Thailand all increased this week, with the largest increase in cup rubber. - The operating rates of tire enterprises varied. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventories of both semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [7][8].

Group 1 - The market is currently in a bullish atmosphere, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuously reaching new highs for the year, supported by a favorable market environment for upward movement [1] - Recent market hotspots have shifted from high-dividend sectors like insurance and banking to semiconductor chips, driven by positive sentiment from the Chain Expo in Beijing, and now to the hydropower sector, which has stimulated the cyclical infrastructure sector [1] - Technical patterns indicate a steady upward trend, with K-line formations showing oscillation upwards and trading volume increasing moderately, with financing balances surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong bullish phase [1] Group 2 - There was a slight pullback in the market on Wednesday afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising while the Shenzhen Component Index fell, indicating that short-term speculative stocks have surged too quickly [1] - Some leading construction engineering stocks experienced a decline, suggesting a return to rationality in the market, which may lead to a period of consolidation [1] - The outlook for the market remains strong, with expectations of short-term fluctuations and continued consolidation, while monitoring intraday hotspots and changes in trading volume for potential further upward movement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is experiencing strong support, maintaining a bullish trend, while silver may enter a period of consolidation, with a psychological level becoming a focal point for competition [1] Group 2 - Gold's bullish pattern is reinforced by solid support levels, suggesting continued investor confidence [1] - Silver is anticipated to undergo fluctuations, indicating potential volatility in the market as it approaches critical psychological thresholds [1]