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8月27日，特变电工盘中下跌2.06%，截至13:54，报14.24元/股，成交13.25亿元，换手率1.82%，总市值 719.52亿元。 截至3月31日，特变电工股东户数33.40万，较上期减少0.44%；人均流通股15127股，较上期增加 0.45%。2025年1月-3月，特变电工实现营业收入233.83亿元，同比减少0.77%；归母净利润16.00亿元， 同比减少19.74%。 分红方面，特变电工A股上市后累计派现151.18亿元。近三年，累计派现65.91亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年3月31日，特变电工十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1.56亿股，相比上期减少1842.91万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第四大流通 股东，持股8266.30万股，相比上期减少454.36万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2.25亿元，特大单买入1.05亿元，占比7.96%，卖出2.65亿元，占比 19.98%；大单买入3.12亿元，占比23.54%，卖出3.78亿元，占比28.54%。 特变电工今年以来股价涨14.01%，近5个交易日涨5. ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares showed a strong performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, driven by significant gains in the photovoltaic sector and other related industries [1] Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened mixed but continued to rise during the afternoon session, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3499.89 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.39% [1] Sector Highlights - The photovoltaic sector experienced substantial gains, with stocks like Shihang New Energy hitting the daily limit [1] - The PCB sector also saw significant increases, with companies such as International Composite Materials and Yihau New Materials reaching a 20% daily limit [1] - The consumer electronics sector rebounded strongly, highlighted by Industrial Fulian hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors that saw gains included rare earth permanent magnets, semiconductors, polysilicon, and the East Data West Computing initiative [1] Financial Overview - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 240 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - There was a net inflow of approximately 11.3 billion yuan from main funds [1] Weak Sectors - The banking and insurance sectors, part of the large financial sector, collectively showed weakness today [1] - The power sector experienced a pullback [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon prices rose by 1.51%, with market sentiment improving and prices oscillating upward in the range of 7,000 - 7,500. Polysilicon prices fell by 3.12%, continuing last week's downward trend due to reduced downstream demand [7]. - In the future, the supply of industrial silicon will remain abundant, while demand from its three major downstream industries is slowing. The polysilicon supply is in a state of reduced load operation, and demand is under significant pressure, with high inventory levels [7]. - It is recommended that the industrial silicon main contract oscillate in the range of 6,800 - 7,600, with a stop - loss range of 6,500 - 7,800. The polysilicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 30,000 - 34,000, with a stop - loss range of 29,000 - 35,000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 1.51% this week, with a shift in the main contract to 09. Polysilicon prices fell by 3.12% due to reduced downstream demand [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply will remain loose, and demand from downstream industries is slowing. For polysilicon, supply is in a reduced - load state, demand is weak, and inventory is high [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The industrial silicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 6,800 - 7,600, with a stop - loss range of 6,500 - 7,800. The polysilicon main contract should oscillate in the range of 30,000 - 34,000, with a stop - loss range of 29,000 - 35,000 [7]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the futures price of industrial silicon fell. The spot price was slightly flat, and the basis weakened. It is expected to continue weakening next week. As of June 20, 2025, the spot price was 8,150 yuan/ton, and the basis was 760 yuan/ton [8][13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon fell significantly, the basis weakened, and the spot price declined. As of June 20, 2025, the spot price was 31 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1,895 yuan/g [17][20]. - **Futures Market**: This week, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon increased. As of June 19, 2025, the national output was about 73,100 tons, and the national capacity utilization rate was 50.34% [22][24]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, electricity prices dropped, and government subsidies reduced costs. The willingness of enterprises to start production during the wet season increased [26][29]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts and social inventory of industrial silicon decreased. As of June 19, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 55,179 lots, a decrease of 3,495 lots from the previous period, and the total social inventory was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [31][33]. - **Downstream Situation** - **Organic Silicon**: The output and operating rate of organic silicon increased. As of June 20, 2025, the weekly output was 45,000 tons, an increase of 4,140 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 68.4%, an increase of 2.12%. The cost of organic silicon spot increased slightly, the price decreased, and the profit declined [36][40][46]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was flat, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48][53]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continued to decline, which affected the demand for polysilicon and had a negative impact on upstream industrial silicon [55][57]. - **Industrial Chain Analysis**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the output will gradually decline. In May 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 97,355 tons, a decrease of 1,447 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [61][63].

2025 年 06 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：商品情绪改善，关注上行风险 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局依旧 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 7,135 | -145 | -205 | -1,405 | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 417,845 | -389,089 | -206,996 | 231,053 | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 183,965 | 3,637 | -42,104 | 17,430 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 34,540 | -515 | -560 | - | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 127,429 | -135,318 | -25,843 | - | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 65,802 | -2,071 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions a significant industrial silicon project in Xinjiang and the trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2506 had a closing price of 8,490 yuan/ton, with volume of 382,636 hands and open interest of 146,525 hands. For polysilicon, PS2506 closed at 38,420 yuan/ton, with volume of 236,082 hands and open interest of 44,692 hands [2]. - **Price and Profit**: Industrial silicon prices showed declines in some regions. Polysilicon - N type re - feed material was priced at 39,500 yuan/ton. Silicon factory profits were mostly negative. Polysilicon enterprise profit was - 3.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory was 59.6 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory was 25.7 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: Prices of raw materials like silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, etc., had different trends. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore was 440 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang washed coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to T - 5 [2]. Macro and Industry News On May 9th, the 100,000 - ton industrial silicon technological transformation project of Xinjiang Yaoju Silicon - based New Materials Co., Ltd. in Heshuo County started. The project has a total investment of 1.268 billion yuan and is expected to bring significant economic benefits after production [4]. Trend Strength The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4].